Changes

'''Swing states''', also called '''battleground states''' (and, colloquially, "purple states"), are [[state]]s in which neither the [[Republican]] nor [[Democratic]] candidate has a clear majority of the voters' support before a Presidential election, and therefore could "swing" the presidential election outcome in either direction. These states are where the majority of the campaigning takes place for both parties.

'''Swing states''', also called '''battleground states''' (and, colloquially, "purple states"), are [[state]]s in which neither the [[Republican]] nor [[Democratic]] candidate has a clear majority of the voters' support before a Presidential election, and therefore could "swing" the presidential election outcome in either direction. These states are where the majority of the campaigning takes place for both parties.

In 2024 the top swing states were [[Arizona]], [[Georgia]], and [[Wisconsin]], and [[Donald Trump]] won by capturing all three.  [[Michigan]] has become a swing state for 2024 due to [[Biden]]'s push for job-eliminating [[electric vehicles]], and [[Nevada]] was also considered a swing state<ref>https://www.aol.com/news/four-swing-states-determine-2024-172546726.html</ref>, Trump also won those states as well.

In 2024, the top swing states were [[Arizona]], [[Georgia]], and [[Wisconsin]], and [[Donald Trump]] won by capturing all three.  [[Michigan]] has become a swing state for 2024 due to [[Biden]]'s push for job-eliminating [[electric vehicles]], and [[Nevada]] was also considered a swing state<ref>https://www.aol.com/news/four-swing-states-determine-2024-172546726.html</ref>, Trump also won those states as well.

According to [[CNN]] as of September 4, 2023:

According to [[CNN]] as of September 4, 2023:

Hundreds of millions of dollars in negative ads by [[Super PAC]]s are spent almost entirely in swing states, where the presidential election outcome is expected to be decided.

Hundreds of millions of dollars in negative ads by [[Super PAC]]s are spent almost entirely in swing states, where the presidential election outcome is expected to be decided.

A notable example of a swing state from 2000-2016 is [[Florida]], where the southern portion of the state is solidly Democratic (excluding areas with large Cuban populations that historically vote Republican), the central portion leans Democratic, while the northern (especially among the many military bases, but excluding the Tallahassee area) and southwestern portions are solidly Republican.  The swing state phenomenon was most notable in the 2000 Presidential Election, where the [[mainstream media]] called the state for Al Gore (before polls had closed in the Florida panhandle; as that area is solidly Republican some believe this was done intentionally to suppress the vote), only to have to walk their initial predictions back, then the country had to wait weeks before the winner was declared (George W. Bush, by a mere 537 votes).  Because of that, and the normally warm weather during the campaign season (where the weather is cold in many other swing states) Florida is a popular place for Presidential campaigning.

A notable example of a swing state from 2000-2016 is [[Florida]], where the southern portion of the state is solidly Democratic (excluding areas with large Cuban populations that historically vote Republican), the central portion leans Democratic, while the northern (especially among the many military bases, but excluding the Tallahassee area) and southwestern portions are solidly Republican.  The swing state phenomenon was most notable in the 2000 Presidential Election, where the [[mainstream media]] called the state for Al Gore (before polls had closed in the Florida panhandle; as that area is solidly Republican some believe this was done intentionally to suppress the vote), only to have to walk their initial predictions back; then the country had to wait weeks before the winner was declared (George W. Bush, by a mere 537 votes).  Because of that, and the normally warm weather during the campaign season (where the weather is cold in many other swing states), Florida is a popular place for Presidential campaigning.

Within swing states, there are key counties that are [[Pivot county|swing/pivotal counties]].  

Within swing states, there are key counties that are [[Pivot county|swing/pivotal counties]].  

{{see also|2020 Presidential election#Predictions and polls}}

{{see also|2020 Presidential election#Predictions and polls}}

In 2020, the seven closest swing states are Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.  The additional states of Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, and New Hampshire are considered potential swing states, and [[Trump]] campaigned there in September 2020 also.

In 2020, the seven closest swing states are Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.  The additional states of Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, and New Hampshire are considered potential swing states, and [[Trump]] also campaigned there in September 2020.

===Arizona===

===Arizona===

Trump received 49% of the vote in [[Arizona]] in 2016, a plurality slightly higher than [[Hillary Clinton|Clinton]]'s total of 45%.<ref>[https://www.270towin.com/states/Arizona 270towin Arizona], retrieved August 28, 2020</ref> Polling as of late August 2020 shows a close race with [[Joe Biden]] slightly ahead.<ref name="RCP Arizona">[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/az/arizona_trump_vs_biden-6807.html RealClearPolitics Arizona], retrieved August 28, 2020</ref> A Trafalgar poll conducted in October showed Trump two points ahead of Biden.<ref name="RCP Arizona" /><ref>[https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/az-pres-103020/ Trafalgar Arizona Poll], retrieved November 3, 2020</ref> As of November 8, 2020, results 97% reporting showed Biden with a 20,000 vote lead,<ref>[https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-arizona.html NY Times 2020 Election Results Arizona], retrieved November 8, 2020</ref> though this was significantly smaller than Biden's lead on election night.

Trump received 49% of the vote in [[Arizona]] in 2016, a plurality slightly higher than [[Hillary Clinton|Clinton]]'s total of 45%.<ref>[https://www.270towin.com/states/Arizona 270towin Arizona], retrieved August 28, 2020</ref> Polling as of late August 2020 shows a close race with [[Joe Biden]] slightly ahead.<ref name="RCP Arizona">[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/az/arizona_trump_vs_biden-6807.html RealClearPolitics Arizona], retrieved August 28, 2020</ref> A Trafalgar poll conducted in October showed Trump two points ahead of Biden.<ref name="RCP Arizona" /><ref>[https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/az-pres-103020/ Trafalgar Arizona Poll], retrieved November 3, 2020</ref> As of November 8, 2020, results, 97% reporting, showed Biden with a 20,000-vote lead,<ref>[https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-arizona.html NY Times 2020 Election Results Arizona], retrieved November 8, 2020</ref> though this was significantly smaller than Biden's lead on election night.

===Florida===

===Florida===

===Michigan===

===Michigan===

Trump won [[Michigan]] by an extremely narrow margin in 2016, and polling had showed Biden in the lead, but by a margin that reduced during summer, until August 28, 2020, when a poll released by Trafalgar Group gave Trump a one and a half point lead.<ref>[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_biden-6761.html RealClearPolitics Michigan], retrieved August 28, 2020</ref><ref>[https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/mi-sen-0820/ Trafalgar Poll August Michigan], retrieved August 29, 2020</ref> Trafalgar's early November poll showed Trump slightly ahead of Biden.<ref>[https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/mi-pres-1120/ Trafalgar Poll November Michigan], retrieved November 8, 2020</ref>

Trump won [[Michigan]] by an extremely narrow margin in 2016, and polling had shown Biden in the lead, but by a margin that reduced during summer, until August 28, 2020, when a poll released by Trafalgar Group gave Trump a one and a half point lead.<ref>[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_biden-6761.html RealClearPolitics Michigan], retrieved August 28, 2020</ref><ref>[https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/mi-sen-0820/ Trafalgar Poll August Michigan], retrieved August 29, 2020</ref> Trafalgar's early November poll showed Trump slightly ahead of Biden.<ref>[https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/mi-pres-1120/ Trafalgar Poll November Michigan], retrieved November 8, 2020</ref>

No excuse is required for an absentee ballot in the state.<ref>[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/how-to-vote-2020/ FiveThirtyEight Project: How to Vote 2020], retrieved August 28, 2020</ref>

No excuse is required for an absentee ballot in the state.<ref>[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/how-to-vote-2020/ FiveThirtyEight Project: How to Vote 2020], retrieved August 28, 2020</ref>

Change Research has shown a close race in [[Pennsylvania]] since mid-July.<ref>[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_biden-6861.html RealClearPolitics Pennsylvania], retrieved August 28, 2020</ref> Center for Politics wrote an article about the political situation of the state, emphasizing the state's shift to Trump in 2016. The article referred to Trump's "new coalition," comprising largely of small towns and cities outside of [[Philadelphia]]'s metropolitan area, which had leaned Democrat in the past but where Republicans have been making significant gains. The article claimed that Biden may be more appealing to those Democrat/former Democrat voters than Hillary Clinton.<ref>[http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/states-of-play-pennsylvania/ Cook, Rhodes. "States of Play: Pennsylvania"] ''Sabato's Crystal Ball'', retrieved August 28, 2020</ref>

Change Research has shown a close race in [[Pennsylvania]] since mid-July.<ref>[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_biden-6861.html RealClearPolitics Pennsylvania], retrieved August 28, 2020</ref> Center for Politics wrote an article about the political situation of the state, emphasizing the state's shift to Trump in 2016. The article referred to Trump's "new coalition," comprising largely of small towns and cities outside of [[Philadelphia]]'s metropolitan area, which had leaned Democrat in the past but where Republicans have been making significant gains. The article claimed that Biden may be more appealing to those Democrat/former Democrat voters than Hillary Clinton.<ref>[http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/states-of-play-pennsylvania/ Cook, Rhodes. "States of Play: Pennsylvania"] ''Sabato's Crystal Ball'', retrieved August 28, 2020</ref>

A [[Rasmussen Reports]] poll conducted August 25-27 of 2020 showed Trump and Biden at 46 points each in the state.<ref>[https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/pennsylvania_trump_46_biden_46 "Pennsylvania: Trump 46%, Biden 46%"] ''Rasmussen Reports'', retrieved September 7, 2020.</ref> A poll conducted in early November by Trafalgar showed Trump and Biden with a point of each other in the state.<ref>[https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/pa-pres-1102/ Trafalgar Poll November], retrieved November 8, 2020</ref>

A [[Rasmussen Reports]] poll conducted August 25-27 of 2020 showed Trump and Biden at 46 points each in the state.<ref>[https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/pennsylvania_trump_46_biden_46 "Pennsylvania: Trump 46%, Biden 46%"] ''Rasmussen Reports'', retrieved September 7, 2020.</ref> A poll conducted in early November by Trafalgar showed Trump and Biden within a point of each other in the state.<ref>[https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/pa-pres-1102/ Trafalgar Poll November], retrieved November 8, 2020</ref>

===Wisconsin===

===Wisconsin===

|Toss-up

|Toss-up

|13.9%

|13.9%

|Elected Republicans to the state legislature, governor's office, and Senate in 2010. Despite much complaining by Democrats and their [[labor union]] allies, they failed to recall enough republican legislators for a majority, and failed to defeat Justice David Prosser in the Supreme Court election.  The final blow that put Wisconsin in play for the 2012 election was when Governor Scott Walker defeated his recall election by a wider margin than he was originally elected in 2010. The selection of Wisconsin Congressman [[Paul Ryan]] as Romney's running mate may also help him in Wisconsin and vie-presidential nominees tend to boost the ticket in their home state. While Romney did receive a bump after he chose Ryan, as of September 2012, he was slightly trailing Obama, 46% to 49%.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/wisconsin/election_2012_wisconsin_president Election 2012: Wisconsin President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012.</ref>

|Elected Republicans to the state legislature, governor's office, and Senate in 2010. Despite much complaining by Democrats and their [[labor union]] allies, they failed to recall enough republican legislators for a majority, and failed to defeat Justice David Prosser in the Supreme Court election.  The final blow that put Wisconsin in play for the 2012 election was when Governor Scott Walker defeated his recall election by a wider margin than he was originally elected in 2010. The selection of Wisconsin Congressman [[Paul Ryan]] as Romney's running mate may also help him in Wisconsin, and vice-presidential nominees tend to boost the ticket in their home state. While Romney did receive a bump after he chose Ryan, as of September 2012, he was slightly trailing Obama, 46% to 49%.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/wisconsin/election_2012_wisconsin_president Election 2012: Wisconsin President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012.</ref>

|10

|10

|}

|}

|Pennsylvania

|Pennsylvania

|10%

|10%

| Obama has had high disapproval ratings here: 54%, and [[Republicans]] swept the elections in 2010; also, Obama polled poorly here in 2008 against [[Hillary Clinton]].<ref>[http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1653 Quinnipiac poll done late September 2011]</ref> As of September 21, 2012, Obama leads Romney by a 51% to 39% margin.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/pennsylvania/election_2012_pennsylvania_president Election 2012: Pennsylvania President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012.</ref>

|Obama has had high disapproval ratings here: 54%, and [[Republicans]] swept the elections in 2010; also, Obama polled poorly here in 2008 against [[Hillary Clinton]].<ref>[http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1653 Quinnipiac poll done late September 2011]</ref> As of September 21, 2012, Obama leads Romney by a 51% to 39% margin.<ref>[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/pennsylvania/election_2012_pennsylvania_president Election 2012: Pennsylvania President] rasmussenreports.com, retrieved September 21, 2012.</ref>

|20

|20

|}

|}