| − | There was a famous bet made in 1980 after the liberal Paul Ehrlich claimed that an increase in world population would cause greater scarcity in basic natural resources, such as copper, chromium, nickel, tin, and tungsten. A "classical" (conservative) economist, Julian Simon, predicted that the free market would seek and find substitutes for scarce resources, such as other materials, and that this would prevent greater scarcity and higher prices. The wager was that Ehrlich predicted that the price of these metals (also called "commodities") copper, chromium, nickel, tin, and tungsten would increase in price by 1990; Simon predicted their prices would not. | + | There was a famous bet made in 1980 after the liberal Paul Ehrlich claimed that an increase in world population would cause greater scarcity in basic natural resources, such as copper, chromium, nickel, tin, and tungsten. A "classical" (conservative) economist, Julian Simon, predicted that people would seek and find substitutes for scarce resources, such as other materials, and that this would prevent greater scarcity and higher prices. The wager was that Ehrlich predicted that the price of these metals (also called "commodities") copper, chromium, nickel, tin, and tungsten would increase in price by 1990; Simon predicted their prices would not. |
| | The classical economist Simon won the bet: the price of three of the five metals fell over that period and, when the price was adjusted for inflation, all five metals declined in their real prices. In the case of tin, its price fell from $8.72 a pound in 1980 to only $3.88 a pound in 1990. This was true even though the world's population increased by 800 million during that period. | | The classical economist Simon won the bet: the price of three of the five metals fell over that period and, when the price was adjusted for inflation, all five metals declined in their real prices. In the case of tin, its price fell from $8.72 a pound in 1980 to only $3.88 a pound in 1990. This was true even though the world's population increased by 800 million during that period. |