As of September 20, the [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/2012_elections_senate_map.html RealClearPolitics website] forecasts a 48-44 split favoring democrats with 8 toss-up seats, but that includes a questionable claim that Democrats will likely hold on to the [[New Mexico]] seat. In these key states, most of which are listed as "toss-up" or even leaning Democrat, the Democrat candidate will probably not win unless he garners more votes than [[Obama]] in the state: | As of September 20, the [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/2012_elections_senate_map.html RealClearPolitics website] forecasts a 48-44 split favoring democrats with 8 toss-up seats, but that includes a questionable claim that Democrats will likely hold on to the [[New Mexico]] seat. In these key states, most of which are listed as "toss-up" or even leaning Democrat, the Democrat candidate will probably not win unless he garners more votes than [[Obama]] in the state: |