Changes

{{merge|Opinion poll}}

{{merge|Opinion poll}}

A '''public opinion poll''' is a survey of attitudes from a particular sample of the population at interest.  Opinion polls represent the opinions of the total population by asking a sample of size N, where N is large enough for reliable results (usually expressed as a 95% confidence of +/- Z%. For most polls, N = 400 to 1000 people.  

A '''public opinion poll''' is a survey of attitudes from a particular sample of the population at interest.  Opinion polls represent the opinions of the total population by asking a sample of size N, where N is large enough for reliable results (usually expressed as a 95% confidence of +/- Z%). For most polls, N = 400 to 1000 people.  

The sample had to be a ''valid'' representation of the population, which means that each person in the target population has a known chance of being sampled.<ref>In unweighted samples, each person has an equal chance. If people have a known but unequal chance, they are weighted to make the chances appear equal.</ref>  Unscientific public opinion polls, made by collecting information from a haphazard sample, date from the '''straw polls''' in American elections in the 1820s. As soon as modern statistical sampling theory was invented around 1930, [[George Gallup]] and other advertisers started created nationwide public opinion polls, using about 1500 cases. The American public became fascinated with polls and they spread to many democratic countries by 1940. Totalitarian countries did not allow them.

The sample had to be a ''valid'' representation of the population, which means that each person in the target population has a known chance of being sampled.<ref>In unweighted samples, each person has an equal chance. If people have a known but unequal chance, they are weighted to make the chances appear equal.</ref>  Unscientific public opinion polls, made by collecting information from a haphazard sample, date from the '''straw polls''' in American elections in the 1820s. As soon as modern statistical sampling theory was invented around 1930, [[George Gallup]] and other advertisers started created nationwide public opinion polls, using about 1500 cases. The American public became fascinated with polls and they spread to many democratic countries by 1940. Totalitarian countries did not allow them.

By providing information about voting intentions, opinion polls can sometimes influence the behaviour of electors. The various theories about how this happens can be split up into two groups: bandwagon/underdog effects, and strategic ('tactical') voting.

By providing information about voting intentions, opinion polls can sometimes influence the behaviour of electors. The various theories about how this happens can be split up into two groups: bandwagon/underdog effects, and strategic ('tactical') voting.

A [[Bandwagon effect]] occurs when the poll prompts voters to back the candidate shown to be winning in the poll. The idea that voters are susceptible to such effects is old, stemming at least from 1884; Safire (1993: 43) reported that it was first used in a political cartoon in the magazine Puck in that year. It has also remained persistent in spite of a lack of empirical corroberation until the late 20th century. [[George Gallup]] spent much effort in vain trying to discredit this theory in his time by presenting empirical research. A recent meta-study of scientific research on this topic indicates that from the 1980's onward the Bandwagon effect is found more often by researchers (Irwin & van Holsteyn 2000).

A [[Bandwagon effect]] occurs when the poll prompts voters to back the candidate shown to be winning in the poll. The idea that voters are susceptible to such effects is old, stemming at least from 1884; Safire (1993: 43) reported that it was first used in a political cartoon in the magazine Puck in that year. It has also remained persistent in spite of a lack of empirical corroberation until the late 20th century. [[George Gallup]] spent much effort in vain trying to discredit this theory in his time by presenting empirical research. A recent meta-study of scientific research on this topic indicates that from the 1980s onward the Bandwagon effect is found more often by researchers (Irwin & van Holsteyn 2000).

The opposite of the bandwagon effect is the [[Underdog effect]]. It is often mentioned in the media. This occurs when people vote, out of sympathy, for the party perceived to be 'losing' the elections. There is less empirical evidence for the existence of this effect than there is for the existence of the Bandwagon effect (Irwin & van Holsteyn 2000).  

The opposite of the bandwagon effect is the [[Underdog effect]]. It is often mentioned in the media. This occurs when people vote, out of sympathy, for the party perceived to be 'losing' the elections. There is less empirical evidence for the existence of this effect than there is for the existence of the Bandwagon effect (Irwin & van Holsteyn 2000).  

These effects only indicate how opinion polls ''directly'' affect political choices of the electorate. Other effect can be found on journalists, politicians, political parties, civil servants etc. in, among other things, the form of media framing and party ideology shifts.

These effects only indicate how opinion polls ''directly'' affect political choices of the electorate. Other effect can be found on journalists, politicians, political parties, civil servants etc. in, among other things, the form of media framing and party ideology shifts.

==Bibliography==

==References==

 

* Asher, Herbert, 1998: Polling and the Public. What Every Citizen Should Know, fourth edition, Washington, D.C.: CQ Press.

* Asher, Herbert, 1998: Polling and the Public. What Every Citizen Should Know, fourth edition, Washington, D.C.: CQ Press.

* Bourdieu, Pierre. "Public Opinion does not exist" in ''Sociology in Question'', London, Sage (1995)  

* Bourdieu, Pierre. "Public Opinion does not exist" in ''Sociology in Question'', London, Sage (1995)  

* Gallup, Alec M. ed. ''The Gallup Poll Cumulative Index: Public Opinion, 1935-1997'' (1999) lists 10,000+ questions, but no results

* Gallup, Alec M. ed. ''The Gallup Poll Cumulative Index: Public Opinion, 1935-1997'' (1999) lists 10,000+ questions, but no results

* Gallup, George Horace, ed. ''The Gallup Poll; Public Opinion, 1935-1971''  3 vol (1972)  summarizes results of each poll.

* Gallup, George Horace, ed. ''The Gallup Poll; Public Opinion, 1935-1971''  3 vol (1972)  summarizes results of each poll.

==External links==

==External links==

* [http://www.ncpp.org/?q=home National Council on Public Polls - An association of polling organizations in the United States devoted to setting high professional standards for surveys]

* [http://www.ncpp.org/?q=home National Council on Public Polls - An association of polling organizations in the United States devoted to setting high professional standards for surveys]

* [http://answers.vizu.com/ Vizu Answers - Online Opinion Polling]

* [http://answers.vizu.com/ Vizu Answers - Online Opinion Polling]

[[Category:Sociology]]

[[Category:Sociology]]