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Talk:Main Page/Archive index/188 (view source)
Revision as of 15:30, April 28, 2020
, 15:30, April 28, 2020horse race is over
::::I'd attribute it more to the MSM not understanding, or despising, mainstream America more than saying these candidates weren't properly vetted. Bloomberg wasn't expressing just his own views about Midwesterners in his comments about the bathroom bill or farmers - it's the view most of the mainstream press has toward Deplorable America outside the NYC media market. [[User:RobSmith|RobS]]<sup>[[User talk:RobSmith|De Plorabus Unum]]</sup> 11:00, 28 February 2020 (EST)
::::I'd attribute it more to the MSM not understanding, or despising, mainstream America more than saying these candidates weren't properly vetted. Bloomberg wasn't expressing just his own views about Midwesterners in his comments about the bathroom bill or farmers - it's the view most of the mainstream press has toward Deplorable America outside the NYC media market. [[User:RobSmith|RobS]]<sup>[[User talk:RobSmith|De Plorabus Unum]]</sup> 11:00, 28 February 2020 (EST)
I largely retract my comment about Bloomberg not being vetted by the media. On the other hand, I don't think the media grills Democrats on the implications of their immigration stances and other stances. So when they show up for debates, they are often flabby.[[User:Conservative|Conservative]] ([[User talk:Conservative|talk]]) 18:16, 28 February 2020 (EST)
I largely retract my comment about Bloomberg not being vetted by the media. On the other hand, I don't think the media grills Democrats on the implications of their immigration stances and other stances. So when they show up for debates, they are often flabby.[[User:Conservative|Conservative]] ([[User talk:Conservative|talk]]) 18:16, 28 February 2020 (EST)
== Which inevitable loser of the 2020 presidential campaign will win the Democrat presidential primary? ==
:''See also [[2020 presidential election]]
{| class="wikitable sortable" style="font-size:98%; margin:left;"
|+Candidates for Democratic Presidential Nominee
|+Who will win?
|+
|-
! colspan="3" style="border: 1px solid black; padding: 5px; background: #efefef;" |
! colspan="10" style="border: 1px solid black; padding: 5px; background: #efefef;" | Chance of becoming<br>Democratic nominee
|-
!class=unsortable|Candidate
!<font size="-2">CA<br>ND<br>.<br>SO<br>RT
!class=unsortable|Home<br>state
!style="border-right:1px solid gray"|End of<br>month<br>June<br>26<br>8:57<br>pm<br>EDT
!style="border-right:1px solid gray"|End of<br>month<br>Mon-<br>day,<br>Jul.<br>29,<br>2019
!style="border-right:1px solid gray"|End of<br>month<br>Mon-<br>day,<br>Aug.<br>26,<br>2019
!style="border-right:1px solid gray"|End of<br>month<br>Tues-<br>day,<br>Oct.<br>1,<br>2019
!style="border-right:1px solid gray"|End of<br>month<br>Mon-<br>day<br>Oct.<br>28,<br>2019
!style="border-right:1px solid gray:|End of<br>month<br>Mon-<br>day<br>Nov.<br>25,<br>2019
!End of<br>month<br>Mon-<br>day<br>Dec.<br>30,<br>2019
!End of<br>month<br>Mon-<br>day<br>Feb.<br>3,<br>2020
!End of<br>month<br>Mon-<br>day<br>Mar.<br>2,<br>2020
|-
|align="left"|V. Pres [[Joe Biden]]
|{{invi|Bid}}
|align="center"|DE
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|28.5%
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|20.2%
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|23.6%
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|18.0%
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|19.2%
|align="right"|22.0%
|align="right"|29.9%
|align="right"|28.8%
|align="right"|33.1%
|-
|align="left"|Mayor [[Michael Bloomberg]]
|{{invi|Blo}}
|align="center"|NY
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|
|align="right"|7.3%
|align="right"|6.6%
|align="right"|14.1%
|align="right"|8.7%
|-
|align="left"|Mayor [[Pete Buttigieg]]
|{{invi|But}}
|align="center"|IN
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|<s>11.1%</s>
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|<s>8.3%</s>
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|<s>6.1%</s>
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|<s>5.1%</s>
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|<s>9.8%</s>
|align="right"|<s>17.4%</s>
|align="right"|<s>10.3%</s>
|align="right"|<s>2.7%</s>
|align="right"|
|-
|align="left"|Rep. [[Tulsi Gabbard]]
|{{invi|Gab}}
|align="center"|HI
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|<s>2.5%</s>
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|<s>1.4%</s>
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|<s>1.4%</s>
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|<s>1.4%</s>
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|<s>1.3%</s>
|align="right"|<s>0.7%</s>
|align="right"|<s>0.4%</s>
|align="right"|<s>0.3%</s>
|align="right"|<s>0.2%</s>
|-
|align="left"|Sen. [[Kamala Harris]]
|{{invi|Har}}
|align="center"|CA
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|<s>12.5%</s>
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|<s>27.4%</s>
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|<s>10.8%</s>
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|<s>4.3%</s>
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|<s>1.8%</s>
|align="right"|<s>2.1%</s>
|align="right"|
|align="right"|
|align="right"|
|-
|align="left"|Sen. [[Amy Klobuchar]]
|{{invi|Klo}}
|align="center"|MN
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|<s>0.8%</s>
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|<s>0.7%</s>
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|<s>0.6%</s>
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|<s>0.5%</s>
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|<s>1.0%</s>
|align="right"|<s>1.7%</s>
|align="right"|<s>2.4%</s>
|align="right"|<s>1.1%</s>
|align="right"|
|-
|align="left"|Sen. [[Bernie Sanders]]
|{{invi|San}}
|align="center"|VT
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|11.2%
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|7.5%
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|13.4%
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|7.8%
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|7.5%
|align="right"|11.5%
|align="right"|21.1%
|align="right"|37.2%
|align="right"|48.3%
|-
|align="left"|Sen. [[Elizabeth Warren]]
|{{invi|War}}
|align="center"|MA
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|15.9%
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|21.5%
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|31.5%
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|46.7%
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|43.7%
|align="right"|18.9%
|align="right"|16.4%
|align="right"|6.5%
|align="right"|1.4%
|-
|align="left"|Sec'y [[Hillary Clinton]]
|{{invi|Cli}}
|align="center"|NY
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|1.7%
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|1.5%
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|2.0%
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|5.7%
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|6.1%
|align="right"|5.3%
|align="right"|3.8%
|align="right"|3.0%
|align="right"|2.2%
|-
|align="left"|[[Andrew Yang]]
|{{invi|Yan}}
|align="center"|NY
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|<s>5.5%</s>
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|<s>3.3%</s>
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|<s>4.0%</s>
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|<s>4.4%</s>
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|<s>3.0%</s>
|align="right"|<s>3.1%</s>
|align="right"|<s>2.8%</s>
|align="right"|<s>1.5%</s>
|align="right"|
|}
{| class="wikitable sortable" style="font-size:98%; margin:left;"
|+Candidates for Democratic Presidential Nominee
|+Who will win?
|+
|-
! colspan="3" style="border: 1px solid black; padding: 5px; background: #efefef;" |
! colspan="9" style="border: 1px solid black; padding: 5px; background: #efefef;" | Twitter followers
|-
!class=unsortable|Candidate
!<font size="-2">CA<br>ND<br>.<br>SO<br>RT
!class=unsortable|Home<br>state
!style="border-right:1px solid gray"|Accts<br>as of<br>June<br>29
!style="border-right:1px solid gray"|New<br>accts<br>July<br>30
!style="border-right:1px solid gray"|New<br>accts<br>Aug<br>26
!style="border-right:1px solid gray"|New<br>accts<br>Oct<br>1
!New<br>accts<br>Nov<br>1
!New<br>accts<br>Nov<br>18
!New<br>accts<br>Dec<br>16
!New<br>accts<br>Feb<br>3
!New<br>accts<br>Mar<br>5
|-
|align="left"|V. Pres [[Joe Biden]]
|{{invi|Bid}}
|align="center"|DE
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"| 03.6M:1
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|+19,000
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|+64,000
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|+45,000
|align="right"|+145,000
|align="right"|+27,000
|align="right"|+63,000
|align="right"|+133,000
|align="right"|+152,000
|-
|align="left"|<s>Sen. [[Cory Booker]]</s>
|{{invi|Boo}}
|align="center"|NJ
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|04.4M:2
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|<s>+28,000</s>
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|<s>+39,000</s>
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|<s>+9,000</s>
|align="right"|<s>+29,000</s>
|align="right"|<s>+6,000</s>
|align="right"|<s>+13,000</s>
|align="right"|
|align="right"|
|-
|align="left"|Mayor [[Pete Buttigieg]]
|{{invi|But}}
|align="center"|IN
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|01.2M:2
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|<s>+72,000</s>
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|<s>+101,000</s>
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|<s>+26,000</s>
|align="right"|<s>+63,000</s>
|align="right"|<s>+34,000</s>
|align="right"|<s>+29,000</s>
|align="right"|<s>+41,000</s>
|align="right"|
|-
|align="left"|Rep. [[Tulsi Gabbard]]
|{{invi|Gab}}
|align="center"|HI
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|<s>00.6M:2</s>
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|<s>+34,000</s>
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|<s>+118,000</s>
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|<s>+27,000</s>
|align="right"|<s>+168,000</s>
|align="right"|<s>+11,000</s>
|align="right"|<s>+38,000</s>
|align="right"|<s>+25,000</s>
|align="right"|<s>+24,000</s>
|-
|align="left"|<s>Sen. [[Kamala Harris]]</s>
|{{invi|Har}}
|align="center"|CA
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|<s>03.6M:2</s>
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|<s>+245,000</s>
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|<s>+119,000</s>
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|<s>+48,000</s>
|align="right"|<s>+109,000</s>
|align="right"|<s>+32,000</s>
|align="right"|
|align="right"|
|align="right"|
|-
|align="left"|<s>Rep. [[Beto O'Rourke]]</s>
|{{invi|O'R}}
|align="center"|TX
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|<s>01.4M:1</s>
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|<s>+4,000</s>
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|<s>+116,000</s>
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|<s>+24,000</s>
|align="right"|<s>+35,000</s>
|align="right"|
|align="right"|
|align="right"|
|align="right"|
|-
|align="left"|Sen. [[Bernie Sanders]]
|{{invi|San}}
|align="center"|VT
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|17.8M:2
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|+134,000
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|+264,000
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|+93,000
|align="right"|+286,000
|align="right"|+108,000
|align="right"|+155,000
|align="right"|+521,000
|align="right"|+845,000
|-
|align="left"|Sen. [[Elizabeth Warren]]
|{{invi|War}}
|align="center"|MA
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|07.8M:2
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|+225,000
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|+273,000
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|+137,000
|align="right"|+289,000
|align="right"|+70,000
|align="right"|+77,000
|align="right"|+200,000
|align="right"|+295,000
|-
|align="left"|Sec'y [[Hillary Clinton]]
|{{invi|Cli}}
|align="center"|NY
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|24.7M:1
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|+316,000
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|+123,000
|align="right"|+322,000
|align="right"|+83,000
|align="right"|+147,000
|align="right"|+549,000
|align="right"|+206,000
|-
|align="left"|Andrew Yang
|{{invi|Yan}}
|align="center"|NY
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|<s>00.5M:1</s>
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|
|align="right" style="border-right:1px solid gray"|<s>+48,000</s>
|align="right"|<s>+90,000</s>
|align="right"|<s>+29,000</s>
|align="right"|<s>+54,000</s>
|align="right"|<s>+152,000</s>
|align="right"|
|}
===A wider perspective===
Transcending the 2020 election is the fact nobody is satisfied with the broken and faulty American primary process. It is not embalmed in the constitution. It's largely evolved by party tradition, and is regulated by a bi-partisan comprise between the two parties. As of 2020, it is structured to represent regions: Iowa caucus (Midwest), New Hampshire primary (Northeast); Nevada caucus (West); South Carolina primary (South). Then Super Tuesday is billed as the closest thing to a "national primary" of 22 states, with 1/3 of all delegates intended to propel a winner with momentum to convention (i.e., a candidate is ''supposed'' to be decided by Super Tuesday). GOP likes this arrangement; Democrats hate it. IA & NH are considered "too white", NV & SC have large minority constituencies. So the current schedule is supposedly rigged to provide some sort of "demographic balance" with a winner decided by Super Tuesday (IOWs, the Nevada caucus was added in recent election cycles theoretically to replicate the same effect on SC & Super Tuesday that IA & NH traditionally has on Super Tuesday).
Democrats couldn't be more clear - they want to do away with Iowa completely. However, by Iowa state law, Iowa mandates its caucus be held one week before any other state (It's on their license plates, ''First In The Nation'', although Delaware actually was the first in the nation to ratify the constitution). The only way to undo that would be for Democrats to win a veto-proof Iowa legislature or a trifecta of House, Senate, & Gov. - even more unlikely now after the 2020 fiasco, cause Iowans are more convinced than ever that ''both'' state ''and'' national Democrats seek to disenfranchise their vote.
So 2020 is experimental, again. What Democrats have overlooked in their long term strategy is the flight of minorities from their party. 2020 will be telling in more than one sense. For my money, even if blacks and minorities flee the Democrats in unprecedented numbers, the DNC ''is still'' unlikely to abandon its longterm [[identity politics]] strategy. Only time will tell. [[User:RobSmith|RobS]]<sup>[[User talk:RobSmith|De Plorabus Unum]]</sup> 21:51, 15 February 2020 (EST)
:Aside, one other scenario to do away with Iowa would be for any and all '''future''' Democrat presidential candidates to '''refuse''' to campaign in Iowa ''at all'', including not participating in any of its annual State Fair Straw Polls. Is it possible to do so? Yes. It would likely require DNC to amend its rules to disqualify as nominee any candidate from ever campaigning in Iowa. What would be the effect of such an action in all small states, if not nationwide on Democrat presidential hopefuls? Iowa is an exemplar of [[grassroots]] and [[states rights]] (in the '''''true''''' sense of the term, not the "racist" connotation Dems have created). Iowa has an informed electorate - something anathema to [[John Podesta]]'s "uninformed and compliant electorate".
:The 2020 schedule is a compromise between parties over identity politics - white people (IA & NH) go first, minorities ride the back of the bus (NV & SC). This was the Democrats' idea. Republicans agreed to it. Dems took the bait hook, line, and sinker. Flyover country is more convinced than ever that Dems despise them, and now a lily white field of racists, sexists, and bigots are begging NV Hispanics and SC Blacks for their vote. [[User:RobSmith|RobS]]<sup>[[User talk:RobSmith|De Plorabus Unum]]</sup> 22:16, 15 February 2020 (EST)
:One further minor observation: Note how the whiteboy Iowa caucus and New Hamphire primary occur on Tuesday, whereas the revolutionary Democrat Nevada caucus and South Carolina primaries are on Saturday. In the compromise between the DNC and RNC over primary scheduling, Democrats want to move to Saturday voting. [[User:RobSmith|RobS]]<sup>[[User talk:RobSmith|De Plorabus Unum]]</sup> 11:44, 28 February 2020 (EST)