Changes

As shown, independents slightly favor Trump over Biden despite the [[liberal]]/[[MSM]] narrative otherwise; however, the samples are not weighed properly. Assuming high turnout in the 2020 elections somewhat similar to the [[2016 U.S. presidential election]], an exit poll from the latter can be used to better weigh the poll. Based off of [https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/arizona/president this CNN exit poll], of 1,729 respondents who voted in the 2016 election, 32% were Republicans, 28% Democrats, and 40% were independents. To calculate according to such:

As shown, independents slightly favor Trump over Biden despite the [[liberal]]/[[MSM]] narrative otherwise; however, the samples are not weighed properly. Assuming high turnout in the 2020 elections somewhat similar to the [[2016 U.S. presidential election]], an exit poll from the latter can be used to better weigh the poll. Based off of [https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/arizona/president this CNN exit poll], of 1,729 respondents who voted in the 2016 election, 32% were Republicans, 28% Democrats, and 40% were independents. To calculate according to such:

<pre style="width:25em">

<pre style="width:33em">

Trump: (32% × 93%) + (28% × 1%) + (40% × 45%) = 48.04%

Trump: (32% × 93%) + (28% × 1%) + (40% × 45%) = 48.04%

Biden: (32% × 2%) + (28% × 97%) + (40% × 43%) = 45%

Biden: (32% × 2%) + (28% × 97%) + (40% × 43%) = 45%

To calculate based on 2016 exit poll numbers:

To calculate based on 2016 exit poll numbers:

<pre style="width:25em">

<pre style="width:33em">

McSally: (32% × 88%) + (28% × 3%) + (40% × 40%) = 45%

McSally: (32% × 88%) + (28% × 3%) + (40% × 40%) = 45%

Kelly:  (32% × 7%) + (28% × 96%) + (40% × 47%) = 47.92%

Kelly:  (32% × 7%) + (28% × 96%) + (40% × 47%) = 47.92%