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The obvious reason for the failure was a fundamental misunderstanding of the size, development and importance of the Russian economy. The idea that Russia was "a gas station with [[nuke]]s," had sunk into the [[Western civilization|Western]] received wisdom. Former President [[Barack Obama]] said that "Russia doesn't make anything," while the idea that Russia's economy was "about the size of [[Italy]]'s" was commonplace, adding to the sense that Russia would be an economic pushover.  
 
The obvious reason for the failure was a fundamental misunderstanding of the size, development and importance of the Russian economy. The idea that Russia was "a gas station with [[nuke]]s," had sunk into the [[Western civilization|Western]] received wisdom. Former President [[Barack Obama]] said that "Russia doesn't make anything," while the idea that Russia's economy was "about the size of [[Italy]]'s" was commonplace, adding to the sense that Russia would be an economic pushover.  
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==Russian GDP growth==
    
It is true that in nominal terms Russia's economy was only a little larger than Italy's before the beginning of Russia's [[Special Military Operation]]. Nominal GDP, however, simply uses current national currency exchange rates with the dollar to compare one nation with another. It thus fails to capture real purchasing power & [[inflation]]. Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) measurements of GDP seek to remedy this, and Russia's GDP PPP, not really needing much foreign currency, is far better even compared to Germany than it is to Italy's.  Looking at GDP in PPP terms removes price level differences and allows a better comparison, especially of living standards, between countries.  In these terms Russia overtook Germany in the summer of 2023 to become the fifth wealthiest economy in the world and the largest in Europe, worth $5.3 trillion.<ref>https://intellinews.com/russia-overtakes-germany-to-become-fifth-biggest-economy-in-the-world-in-gdp-on-a-ppp-basis-286944/?source=russia</ref>
 
It is true that in nominal terms Russia's economy was only a little larger than Italy's before the beginning of Russia's [[Special Military Operation]]. Nominal GDP, however, simply uses current national currency exchange rates with the dollar to compare one nation with another. It thus fails to capture real purchasing power & [[inflation]]. Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) measurements of GDP seek to remedy this, and Russia's GDP PPP, not really needing much foreign currency, is far better even compared to Germany than it is to Italy's.  Looking at GDP in PPP terms removes price level differences and allows a better comparison, especially of living standards, between countries.  In these terms Russia overtook Germany in the summer of 2023 to become the fifth wealthiest economy in the world and the largest in Europe, worth $5.3 trillion.<ref>https://intellinews.com/russia-overtakes-germany-to-become-fifth-biggest-economy-in-the-world-in-gdp-on-a-ppp-basis-286944/?source=russia</ref>
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Russian [[GDP]] nominally rose more than any [[G7]] country in 2023. The average Russian household ended the year with about 18% more money in the [[bank]] than a year earlier. Sberbank, Russia’s largest state-controlled bank, posted a 5.5-fold year-on-year net profit jump to a record high of 1.5 trillion rubles (USD $16.3 billion). The defense industry employs 3.5 million people and many factories have doubled their workforce since the beginning of the [[SMO]]. The economic boom is result of defense [[stimulus]] spending, [[Keynesian economics]], a government [[deficit]]s. Compared to the [[United States]], Russia is a piker in the debt markets. The U.S. gas $35 trillion [[national debt]] and growing), nearly a $1 trillion dollar defense budget, does not produce tanks, failed to produce a functional [[hypersonic missile]], incapable of matching Russia’s output of [[artillery]] shells, and has become largely a service economy. The United States is no longer an industrial powerhouse.
 
Russian [[GDP]] nominally rose more than any [[G7]] country in 2023. The average Russian household ended the year with about 18% more money in the [[bank]] than a year earlier. Sberbank, Russia’s largest state-controlled bank, posted a 5.5-fold year-on-year net profit jump to a record high of 1.5 trillion rubles (USD $16.3 billion). The defense industry employs 3.5 million people and many factories have doubled their workforce since the beginning of the [[SMO]]. The economic boom is result of defense [[stimulus]] spending, [[Keynesian economics]], a government [[deficit]]s. Compared to the [[United States]], Russia is a piker in the debt markets. The U.S. gas $35 trillion [[national debt]] and growing), nearly a $1 trillion dollar defense budget, does not produce tanks, failed to produce a functional [[hypersonic missile]], incapable of matching Russia’s output of [[artillery]] shells, and has become largely a service economy. The United States is no longer an industrial powerhouse.
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==Central Asian gains==
 
As trade ties between Russia and the [[EU]] were severed, Central Asian EU-trade increased to allow the reexport of EU goods (including dual use) to Russia. Trade with [[Kazakhstan]], [[Kyrgyzstan]] and [[Uzbekistan]] increased. The Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) became an effective mechanism for sanctions avoidance.
 
As trade ties between Russia and the [[EU]] were severed, Central Asian EU-trade increased to allow the reexport of EU goods (including dual use) to Russia. Trade with [[Kazakhstan]], [[Kyrgyzstan]] and [[Uzbekistan]] increased. The Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) became an effective mechanism for sanctions avoidance.
    
To give one example, German luxury car export to Kyrgyzstan increased by 31,000%.<ref>[https://theprint.in/world/is-russia-evading-western-sanctions-via-central-asia-what-eu-trade-data-suggests/1885912/ 31,000% surge in car, ship, toy exports — Europe’s suddenly trading with Central Asia post Russia war], NIKHIL RAMPAL, ''The Print'', 15 December, 2023. theprint.in</ref> A major Russian [[gas]] deal with Uzbekistan and a $6bn [[coal]] deal with Kazakhstan, where almost 50% of foreign companies registered are now Russian, attest to an intensification of ties. Additionally, the multi-modal Middle Corridor was expected to replace the sanctioned Northern Corridor running through Russia. But the Middle Corridor still faces infrastructure bottlenecks and the Northern Corridor now transits pre-war volumes again. Central Asian [[migrant]] [[labor]] remittances increased, constituting 20% of Uzbek GDP, and higher percentages in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and [[Tajikistan]].  
 
To give one example, German luxury car export to Kyrgyzstan increased by 31,000%.<ref>[https://theprint.in/world/is-russia-evading-western-sanctions-via-central-asia-what-eu-trade-data-suggests/1885912/ 31,000% surge in car, ship, toy exports — Europe’s suddenly trading with Central Asia post Russia war], NIKHIL RAMPAL, ''The Print'', 15 December, 2023. theprint.in</ref> A major Russian [[gas]] deal with Uzbekistan and a $6bn [[coal]] deal with Kazakhstan, where almost 50% of foreign companies registered are now Russian, attest to an intensification of ties. Additionally, the multi-modal Middle Corridor was expected to replace the sanctioned Northern Corridor running through Russia. But the Middle Corridor still faces infrastructure bottlenecks and the Northern Corridor now transits pre-war volumes again. Central Asian [[migrant]] [[labor]] remittances increased, constituting 20% of Uzbek GDP, and higher percentages in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and [[Tajikistan]].  
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==Ruble gains==
 
[[File:4-15-25.PNG|thumbnail|center|650px|]]
 
[[File:4-15-25.PNG|thumbnail|center|650px|]]
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==US sanctions==
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Since the start of the [[Special Military Operation]] (SMO), [[trade]] between the [[US]] and [[Russia]] has shrunk dramatically. In 2021, US [[export]]s to Russia totaled approximately $6.4 billion and US [[import]]s from Russia totaled about $29.7 billion. This resulted in a US [[trade deficit]] with Russia of about $23.3 billion for that year.
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In 2024, total trade in goods between the United States and Russia declined sharply due to ongoing [[economic sanctions]], [[war]]-related restrictions, and other [[political]] measures. US exports to Russia in 2024 were approximately $526 million, marking a decrease of over 12% compared to 2023. Major U.S. exports included [[medical]]/[[technical]] equipment, [[pharmaceutical]]s, [[machinery]], and some [[food]] and [[chemical]] products.
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U.S. imports from Russia in 2024 were about $3.0–$3.27 billion, down more than 34% compared to 2023 and down over 75% from pre-war levels in 2021–2022. Key Russian exports to the U.S. were [[fertilizer]]s (about $1.3 billion), precious metals (about $878 million), and inorganic chemicals (about $683 million). [[Energy]] imports have almost entirely ceased.
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==See also==
 
==See also==
 
*[[Magnitsky Act of 2012]]
 
*[[Magnitsky Act of 2012]]
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