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→Decisions! Decisions! "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." - Yogi Berra
I am starting to agree with Yogi Berra. It's better to come up with a number of scenarios with various probabilities or say "the foreseeable future". 😀 [[User:Conservative|Conservative]] ([[User talk:Conservative|talk]]) 16:00, August 21, 2025 (EDT)
I am starting to agree with Yogi Berra. It's better to come up with a number of scenarios with various probabilities or say "the foreseeable future". 😀 [[User:Conservative|Conservative]] ([[User talk:Conservative|talk]]) 16:00, August 21, 2025 (EDT)
::'''Question:''' [https://chatgpt.com/share/68a7add3-577c-8003-a9f1-805f59a532ba How easy it to be wrong about the significance of the events in a month of international politics if you forecast it out 30 years?]: "It’s very easy to be wrong about the long-term significance of a given month of international politics if you’re projecting 30 years out."
::"[https://chatgpt.com/share/68a77cde-4628-8003-9542-b28126b0d33f Is it better to be dogmatic about a future prediction or give a number of potential plausible scenarios with estimates of their probabilty of occurring?]: "It’s almost always better to present a set of plausible scenarios with probabilities (or at least relative likelihoods) rather than being dogmatic about a single prediction—especially when dealing with complex, uncertain systems like politics, economics, or technology."
::"[https://chatgpt.com/share/68a77cde-4628-8003-9542-b28126b0d33f Is it better to be dogmatic about a future prediction or give a number of potential plausible scenarios with estimates of their probabilty of occurring?]: "It’s almost always better to present a set of plausible scenarios with probabilities (or at least relative likelihoods) rather than being dogmatic about a single prediction—especially when dealing with complex, uncertain systems like politics, economics, or technology."