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Major events in the Ukraine proxy war, 2026 (view source)
Revision as of 21:15, September 9, 2026
, September 9→Budget crunch
===Budget crunch===
===Budget crunch===
In September 2026 Ukraine reported the largest budget deficit since 2022. Ukraine has already burned through much of what the Europeans so painstakingly agreed to give at the start of the year. And now, after spending inordinate amounts of [[EU]] aid on firework shows over [[Russian]] cities, [[Zelensky]] has had enough. Now that the Ukrainian economy is collapsing due to Russia’s air [[blockade]] of [[Black Sea]] ports, [[Kiev]] is demanding an air ceasefire. In short, the [[Western]] aid was spent on [[drone]] strikes which failed to do much other than invite more intense Russian drone strikes on Ukraine. The remaining Western aid is then spent even faster to buy more [[air defense]] systems. Meanwhile, Ukraine's rapidly tanking [[economy]] means less [[revenue]]s, and hence more need for aid. [[Tax]] revenues were halved August 2026 because of Russian strikes on Ukraine's Black Sea ports and industrial assets.
Particularly hard hit was [[agriculture]], Ukraine’s main [[export]] sector. With Ukraine's ports empty since late July, August saw agricultural exports drop by more than 40%. 2.7 times less grain was exported in August than July, which was already a bad month. Strikes on warehouses meant that there is less and less space to store the new [[harvest]]. The minister of agriculture worried that storage space will run out by December, though farmers believe October is more likely.
Farmers have already seen prices for their goods fall by half compared to the start of the harvest. Many are unsure if it’s even worth sowing, with this year’s harvest likely to be at least a third smaller than the last. Finally, attempts to replace the Black Sea ports with overland or [[Danube]] transport routes utterly failed. Due to export bottlenecks, farmers increasingly switched from grains to more expensive oilseed crops. This is set to accelerate the long-existing trend towards the concentration of agriculture in the hands of large [[corporation]]s, as well as further degrade [[soil]] quality.
September 2026 is when the government completes the 2027 budget and submits the corresponding Bill to the [[Rada]]. For the past few years, parliamentarians have also spent the month making changes to the current year's budget. 2026 was no exception. The government wants to increase defense spending by at least 300 billion hryvnia ($6.7 billion [[USD]]), while the [[military]] wants 1.1 trillion hryvnia ($24.8 billion USD) for the last four months of 2026. Already in June, parliament approved a record 1.5 trillion hryvnia ($33.8 billion USD) addition to the budget, mostly for military needs.
By fall 2026 the situation was rather fragile. 2026 budget expenditures amounted to over $143 billion, while the total planned revenue collected within Ukraine amounted to only $64 billion. The difference ($79 billion) was meant to be covered by foreign aid. In fact, the budget depends on external assistance much more than the $64 billion figure showed. Much of [[domestic]] [[tax]] [[revenue]] depended on foreign aid, since income and military taxes are largely collected from the [[public sector]] and firms operating on [[government]] contracts.
On August 30, 2026 Ukraine’s ministry of defense confirmed Zelensky's claim of a 27 billion dollar [[deficit]]. Zelensky tried to blame the unexpectedly large military deficit on former defense minister [[Mikhailo Fedorov]] and the massive [[drone]] strikes on [[Russia]] throughout 2026. There's certainly some truth to that, although blaming Fedorov for what was clearly Zelensky’s attempt to delight his Western sponsors was a bit much. In short, Zelensky seems to have burnt through much of the funds Ukraine was given as part of Europe’s 90 billion euro Ukraine Support Loan (USL). This loan was finally agreed upon in late April 2026, and was meant to be dripped out over the course of 2026 and 2027. So far, only 8.35 billion euros has been actually disbursed to Ukraine, though Ukraine will supposedly receive 45 billion from the loan over the course of 2026.
In other words, it seems like most of this loan is being spent on [[drone]]s to strike Russia with little effect other than provoking increased Russian attacks on Ukraine — which then requires the rest of the USL to be spent on [[air defense]]s. Doesn't seem like a winning strategy, but let the winter show.
Though it seems that billions of euros have been spent on Ukraine’s endless stream of drones against Russia, this has not exactly crippled [[Moscow]]. Even [[Crimea]], the region worst-hit by Ukrainian drones, has seen far fewer power blackouts in September 2026 as compared to August and July. Ukraine’s drone forces haven’t reported any strikes on Crimea since August 28. Maybe Ukraine has decided that the cost of making life inconvenient for Russians isn't worth it.
==NATO attacks from the Baltic States==
==NATO attacks from the Baltic States==