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Counterexamples to Evolution (view source)
Revision as of 22:09, October 26, 2008
, 22:09, October 26, 2008→Statistical Approach: actually I had too many double negatives; this is correct now
== Statistical Approach ==
== Statistical Approach ==
If there is merely a 5% chance that any of the foregoing counterexamples is correct, then the odds of at least one of them being correct is at least 49%.<ref>At 14 examples each with a 5% probability of being correct, then the odds of at least one being correct is 0.95<sup>14</sup> = 0.49 = 49%</ref> As the list grows longer, the odds become vanishingly small of the theory of evolution being valid.
If there is a 5% chance or greater that any of the foregoing counterexamples is correct, then the odds of at least one of them being correct is at least 51%.<ref>At 14 examples each with a 5% probability of being correct, then the odds of at least one being correct are <math>1-0.95^{{14}} = 0.51 = 51%</math></ref> As the list grows longer, the odds become vanishingly small of the theory of evolution being valid.<ref>For their to be greater than a 95% chance of at least one event being correct, you would need 58 independent examples, each with a 5% chance of being correct, as <math>1-0.95^{{58}} = 0.95 = 95%</math></ref>
== References ==
== References ==