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2010 Midterm Elections (view source)
Revision as of 07:09, September 14, 2009
, 07:09, September 14, 2009updates
After the [[Democratic Party]] successes in the 2006 off-year election (when they recaptured Congress), augmented by more gains in the [[United States Presidential Election, 2008|Presidential Election of 2008]], the question is whether the Democrats will hold their gains or slip back. Since the Democrats have an advantage of 257-178 in the House, the GOP must gain 40 seats to recapture control. Since the Democrats control the Senate 60-40 (counting two independents and the vacant Massachusetts seat), the GOP needs to gain 11 seats in the Senate to retake control<ref>A 50-50 tie would be broken by the vice president in favor of the Democrats.</ref>; but even a one-seat gain would allow the GOP to filibuster obnoxious bills, for 60 votes are needed to break a filibuster.
After the [[Democratic Party]] successes in the 2006 off-year election (when they recaptured Congress), augmented by more gains in the [[United States Presidential Election, 2008|Presidential Election of 2008]], the question is whether the Democrats will hold their gains or slip back. Since the Democrats have an advantage of 257-178 in the House, the GOP must gain 40 seats to recapture control. Since the Democrats control the Senate 60-40 (counting two independents and the vacant Massachusetts seat), the GOP needs to gain 11 seats in the Senate to retake control<ref>A 50-50 tie would be broken by the vice president in favor of the Democrats.</ref>; but even a one-seat gain would allow the GOP to filibuster obnoxious bills, for 60 votes are needed to break a filibuster.
Democrats have gotten off to a much faster start than Republicans in fundraising for 2010. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee had $10.2 million in the bank at the end of July, 2009, with debts of $5.3 million. The National Republican Congressional Committee had just $4 million in cash and owed $2.75 million.
==Forecasts==
==Forecasts==
Democrats must defend about 60 marginal House seats in 2010, as opposed to about 40 for Republicans. At high risk are 27 Democratic seats and just 13 Republican seats that may see a party switch.
Election forecasters in September 2009 were revising their predictions downward for the Democrats, as Obama's popularity continues to plunge. From April to August, Obama lost 10 points across the board--suffering losses in every group except blacks, who remain loyal to him.<ref> For details see [http://pewresearch.org/assets/pdf/1333.pdf Pew Report, Sept. 2009]</ref> The popularity of Congress remains low. Fewer people are calling themselves Democrats. The Republican party, however, suffers from a lack of leaders and its own poor reputation in voter esteem.
Election forecasters in September 2009 were revising their predictions downward for the Democrats, as Obama's popularity continues to plunge. From April to August, Obama lost 10 points across the board--suffering losses in every group except blacks, who remain loyal to him.<ref> For details see [http://pewresearch.org/assets/pdf/1333.pdf Pew Report, Sept. 2009]</ref> The popularity of Congress remains low. Fewer people are calling themselves Democrats. The Republican party, however, suffers from a lack of leaders and its own poor reputation in voter esteem.
*'''Joseph Cao (R) of Louisiana's 2nd congressional district:'''
*'''Joseph Cao (R) of Louisiana's 2nd congressional district:'''
The GOP seat at greatest risk is held by [[Joseph Cao]] (pronounced Gow), who defeated nine-term Democrat Congressman [[William J. Jefferson]] in a 2008 runoff election by a 49%-47% margin, after Jefferson had been indicted on federal charges of bribery and other corrupt acts. The district covers almost all of urban [[New Orleans]] and was ranked of having a 25 point advantage for Democrats by the Cook Partison Voting Index. State Rep. Cedric Richmond has announced his candidacy. When asked about his reelection, Cao said that political experts were proved wrong in 2008 and "I'm sure we'll prove them wrong again." <ref>''The Almanac of American Politics, 2010''</ref>
*'''Louisiana's 3rd congressional district - open seat:'''
*'''Louisiana's 3rd congressional district - open seat:'''