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== A summary with graphs... ==

== A summary with graphs... ==

On June 9, 2009, Andrew Schlafly proclaimed his [[Essay:Conservapedia's Law]]: <i><blockquote><b>Conservapedia's Law</b> is the observation that conservative insights increase over time at a geometric rate, as in 1-2-4-8-16-etc.<br>  

On June 9, 2009, Andrew Schlafly proclaimed his [[Essay:Conservapedia's Law]]: <blockquote>'''Conservapedia's Law</b>''' ''is the observation that conservative insights increase over time at a geometric rate, as in 1-2-4-8-16-etc.<br>  

For example, there is a doubling in effective new conservative terms per century. </blockquote></i> This remarkable precise observation was bolstered over the time by a list of 300 <i>conservative words</i><i><blockquote>Powerful, insightful new conservative terms have grown at a geometric rate, roughly doubling every century. For every insightful new conservative term originating in the 1600s, there are two new terms originating in the 1700s, four new terms in the 1800s, and eight new terms in the 1900s, for a pattern of "1-2-4-8". This implies a more conservative future and a correlation between conservatism and truth. The year 1612 is our starting point: the King James Version of the Bible was published in 1611, and William Shakespeare had written nearly all his plays. </blockquote>

''For example, there is a doubling in effective new conservative terms per century. </blockquote> This remarkable precise observation was bolstered over the time by a list of 300 ''conservative words''

<blockquote>''Powerful, insightful new conservative terms have grown at a geometric rate, roughly doubling every century. For every insightful new conservative term originating in the 1600s, there are two new terms originating in the 1700s, four new terms in the 1800s, and eight new terms in the 1900s, for a pattern of "1-2-4-8". This implies a more conservative future and a correlation between conservatism and truth. The year 1612 is our starting point: the King James Version of the Bible was published in 1611, and William Shakespeare had written nearly all his plays. ''</blockquote>

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|[[File:Bcw-002.png|thumb|distribution of 42,000 words]]

|[[File:Bcw-002.png|thumb|distribution of 42,000 words]]

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|To convince Andy Schlafly's that the distribution of the words in his list is just an artifact generated by .[[sample bias]], I at first showed that it doesn't hold for shorter periods of time than centuries. But Andy Schlafly told me that he didn't see  ''any merit'' in my challenge: <i>The entry observes that new terms are generated at higher rates during productive periods within decades, for example just after or during religious awakenings.

|To convince Andy Schlafly's that the distribution of the words in his list is just an artifact generated by [[sample bias]], I at first showed that it doesn't hold for shorter periods of time than centuries. But Andy Schlafly told me that he didn't see  ''any merit'' in my challenge: ''The entry observes that new terms are generated at higher rates during productive periods within decades, for example just after or during religious awakenings.''

|[[File:Bcw-003.png|thumb|Cons. Words per Decade]]

|[[File:Bcw-003.png|thumb|Cons. Words per Decade]]

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|Interestingly, I couldn't observe any effect of the <i>Great Religious Awakenings</i>, neither in the number of <i>conservative words</i> nor in the number of all words.

|Interestingly, I couldn't observe any effect of the ''Great Religious Awakenings'', neither in the number of ''conservative words'' nor in the number of all words.

|[[Image:Bcw-004.png|thumb|All Words per Decade]]

|[[Image:Bcw-004.png|thumb|All Words per Decade]]

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No methodology is given how the <i>conservative words</i> are detected and gathered. To put the whole thing on a sounder ground, I asked Andrew Schlafly to take an unbiased text: I gave him a list of 500 words, which were - according to the [[Merriam Webster]] - first mentioned between 1600 and 1999. Andrew Schlafly objected to this sample as  newer words are not well represented in word-books. When I propelled  a second sample, consisting of 500 words all originated between 1600 and 1899 (300 years should be enough to prove his law), he was willing to mark the words he things to be conservative.

No methodology is given how the ''conservative words'' are detected and gathered. To put the whole thing on a sounder ground, I asked Andrew Schlafly to take an unbiased text: I gave him a list of 500 words, which were - according to the [[Merriam Webster]] - first mentioned between 1600 and 1999. Andrew Schlafly objected to this sample as  newer words are not well represented in word-books. When I propelled  a second sample, consisting of 500 words all originated between 1600 and 1899 (300 years should be enough to prove his law), he was willing to mark the words he things to be conservative.

I'm very grateful that Andrew Schlafly took part in my little experiment: Thank you!

I'm very grateful that Andrew Schlafly took part in my little experiment: Thank you!

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|Andrew Schlafly identified 41 words (8.2%) as conservative. The distribution of these 41 words over the centuries does <b>not</b> show a geometric progression.

|Andrew Schlafly identified 41 words (8.2%) as conservative. The distribution of these 41 words over the centuries does <b>not</b> show a geometric progression.

|[[Image:Bcw-006.png"|thumb|Identified as Conservative]]

|[[Image:Bcw-006.png|thumb|Identified as Conservative]]

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|In fact, their distribution mirrors the distribution of the whole sample, as each century &asymp; 8% of the words are identified as <i>conservative</i>

|In fact, their distribution mirrors the distribution of the whole sample, as each century &asymp; 8% of the words are identified as ''conservative''

|[[File:Bcw-007.png|thumb|Percentages]]

|[[File:Bcw-007.png|thumb|Percentages]]

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