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Line 31: − |- − |[[Rick Perry]] − |Ranking improved on June 9 because Newt's campaign leadership quit. Perry formally announced his candidacy on August 13. He is a conservative-talking governor who has run [[Texas]] for a decade (since [[George W. Bush]] became president); crushed [[RINO]] [[Kay Bailey Hutchison]] in the 2010 primary and then won a landslide in the general election against a popular opponent, carrying others to victory on his strong coattails; has a stellar jobs record in his State and which he can contrast with liberal-run states like [[California]], [[Nevada]], [[Illinois]], and [[New York]] − |More conservative in his rhetoric than his policies; endorsed [[RINO]] [[Rudy Giuliani]] in 2008; tried to force all schoolgirls to receive the [[HPV vaccine]]; raised business taxes while governor; supports exceptions for allowing [[abortion]]; and responded to a reporter's question on Dec. 24, 2010 that he's definitely not running. ''Could simply block [[Mitt Romney]] from winning the nomination, without winning it himself''. − |Stumbled in his first major statements on [[abortion]] and [[same-sex marriage]]. Did not participate in the Iowa debate or Straw Poll but finished sixth on write-in votes. May be focusing on a southern strategy that is unlikely to give him the majority of delegates needed to win. Line 36:
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Line 66: − |- − |[[Rick Santorum]] − |Outspoken supporter of conservative values as a senator, well-received by Iowan evangelicals at campaign-like event in March 2010 − |His all-out support of [[RINO]] and now-Democrat [[Arlen Specter]] prevented [[Pat Toomey]] from defeating him in 2002, and Santorum endorsed Romney for President in 2008; could simply be a [[stalking horse]] for Romney − |Was fabulous in the Iowa debate Aug. 10th, hopes to climb in the polls − |- − |[[Herman Cain]] − |Former Godfathers Pizza CEO, conservative radio host, Tea Party favorite, tremendous speaker, triumphed over a health problem, and apparently is running. <ref>[http://dailycaller.com/2010/12/06/herman-cain-2012-exploratory-committee-could-come-soon/ Herman Cain: 2012 exploratory committee could come soon, DailyCaller, December 6, 2010]</ref> − |Not well known outside the conservative sphere of influence. − |Maintaining his ranking Line 109:
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United States presidential election, 2012 (view source)
Revision as of 05:02, August 29, 2011
, 05:02, August 29, 2011My two cents. The frontrunners are seen as Romney, Perry, Bachmann, then Paul and several other people running in the race.
The '''Presidential Election 2012''' is on Tuesday, November 6, when the [[United States]] elects a president. [[Obama]], with his [[Barack Obama approval ratings|declining popularity]], is unlikely to win reelection unless he can carry [[Florida]], which he only narrowly won last time.
The '''Presidential Election 2012''' is on Tuesday, November 6, when the [[United States]] elects a president. [[Obama]], with his [[Barack Obama approval ratings|declining popularity]], is unlikely to win reelection unless he can carry [[Florida]], which he only narrowly won last time.
For the Republican nomination, it the leaders are [[Mitt Romney]] (likely to win [[New Hampshire]]), [[Michele Bachmann]] (likely to win [[Iowa]]), and [[Rick Perry]] (likely to win the South).<ref>The order of the early primaries is not yet finally determined as of the end of 2010. For estimated dates, see http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/events.phtml?s=c</ref> Neither seem to have broad enough support to win the nomination. [[Ron Paul]] has a solid base of about 10% and his ideas are being adopted by other candidates. Additional candidates (perhaps [[Jeb Bush]]?) are possible.
For the Republican nomination, the leaders are [[Mitt Romney]] (likely to win [[New Hampshire]]), [[Michele Bachmann]] (likely to win [[Iowa]]), and [[Rick Perry]] (likely to win the South).<ref>The order of the early primaries is not yet finally determined as of the end of 2010. For estimated dates, see http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/events.phtml?s=c</ref> Neither seem to have broad enough support to win the nomination. [[Ron Paul]] has a solid base of about 10% and his ideas are being adopted by other candidates. Additional candidates (perhaps [[Jeb Bush]]?) are possible.
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== Ranking of Potential Republican Candidates by Likelihood of Winning Nomination ==
== Ranking of Potential Republican Candidates by Likelihood of Winning Nomination ==
|Refuses to sign the same [[pro-life]] pledge that all other major [[Republican]] candidates signed;<ref>http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0611/57256.html</ref> continues to believe in [[liberal]] propaganda claiming [[global warming]]; Romney once supported [[abortion]] and [[civil unions]], criticized by the [[Tea Party Express]] chairwoman and others due to his [[ObamaCare]]-like health plan in [[Massachusetts]], which featured "the mandate" and taxpayer-funded abortion; struggles in Iowa and won only 15% in the South Carolina primary in 2008.
|Refuses to sign the same [[pro-life]] pledge that all other major [[Republican]] candidates signed;<ref>http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0611/57256.html</ref> continues to believe in [[liberal]] propaganda claiming [[global warming]]; Romney once supported [[abortion]] and [[civil unions]], criticized by the [[Tea Party Express]] chairwoman and others due to his [[ObamaCare]]-like health plan in [[Massachusetts]], which featured "the mandate" and taxpayer-funded abortion; struggles in Iowa and won only 15% in the South Carolina primary in 2008.
|Doubts are growing that someone as weak as Romney on pro-life can win the nomination. He is losing ground despite winning the first debate, and finished only 5th in the straw poll at the Republican Leadership Conference; disappointed pro-lifers by failing to take a pro-life pledge
|Doubts are growing that someone as weak as Romney on pro-life can win the nomination. He is losing ground despite winning the first debate, and finished only 5th in the straw poll at the Republican Leadership Conference; disappointed pro-lifers by failing to take a pro-life pledge
|-
|[[Rick Perry]]
|Ranking improved on June 9 because Newt's campaign leadership quit. Perry formally announced his candidacy on August 13. He is a conservative-talking governor who has run [[Texas]] for a decade (since [[George W. Bush]] became president); crushed [[RINO]] [[Kay Bailey Hutchison]] in the 2010 primary and then won a landslide in the general election against a popular opponent, carrying others to victory on his strong coattails; has an excellent jobs record in his State and which he can contrast with liberal-run states like [[California]], [[Nevada]], [[Illinois]], and [[New York]]. Strong religious faith that he is not afraid to show by attending prayer-ins that are mocked by [[Massachusetts liberals]]. Understands the concept of [[state's rights]].
|It can be argued is more conservative in his rhetoric than his policies; endorsed [[RINO]] [[Rudy Giuliani]] in 2008; tried to force all schoolgirls to receive the [[HPV vaccine]]; raised business taxes while governor; supports exceptions for allowing [[abortion]]; and responded to a reporter's question on Dec. 24, 2010 that he's definitely not running. ''Could simply block [[Mitt Romney]] from winning the nomination, without winning it himself''.
|Stumbled in his first major statements on [[abortion]] and [[same-sex marriage]]. Did not participate in the Iowa debate or Straw Poll but finished sixth on write-in votes. May be focusing on a southern strategy that is unlikely to give him the majority of delegates needed to win.
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|[[Michele Bachmann]]
|[[Michele Bachmann]]
|Voted twice to repeal [[DADT]], which the vast majority of Republican primary voters support; opposed Bachmann for a leadership position; his age (76 in 2012) will be used against him; has never won statewide office; his views on the war on drugs and the military also alienates many Republicans.
|Voted twice to repeal [[DADT]], which the vast majority of Republican primary voters support; opposed Bachmann for a leadership position; his age (76 in 2012) will be used against him; has never won statewide office; his views on the war on drugs and the military also alienates many Republicans.
|Improving as Obama's support is lowest when Paul is his opponent; Paul is gaining ground as economy crumbles. Was the clear crowd favorite in the [[Iowa]] debate on Aug. 10. 1% behind Michele Bachmann in the Ames straw poll, together with her they consisted of more than half the votes.
|Improving as Obama's support is lowest when Paul is his opponent; Paul is gaining ground as economy crumbles. Was the clear crowd favorite in the [[Iowa]] debate on Aug. 10. 1% behind Michele Bachmann in the Ames straw poll, together with her they consisted of more than half the votes.
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|[[Jeb Bush]]
|[[Jeb Bush]]
|Has polled unusually poorly (54-34%) against [[Barack Obama]];<ref>http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/02/14/obama-would-beat-jeb-bush-big-says-poll/</ref> Jeb says he does not intend to run in 2012, when he could still be tagged with negatives via George; not liked by many Tea Partiers; might wait to run when Hillary runs.
|Has polled unusually poorly (54-34%) against [[Barack Obama]];<ref>http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/02/14/obama-would-beat-jeb-bush-big-says-poll/</ref> Jeb says he does not intend to run in 2012, when he could still be tagged with negatives via George; not liked by many Tea Partiers; might wait to run when Hillary runs.
|With unemployment high (9.1% in August 2011), it is more likely a Republican will win in 2012, and Jeb will not want to pass up that opportunity and then wait until 2020, when he's old
|With unemployment high (9.1% in August 2011), it is more likely a Republican will win in 2012, and Jeb will not want to pass up that opportunity and then wait until 2020, when he's old
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|[[Herman Cain]]
|Former Godfathers Pizza CEO, conservative radio host, Tea Party favorite, tremendous speaker, triumphed over a health problem, is making himself known.
|Not well known outside the conservative sphere of influence, although he is getting there.
|Maintaining his ranking
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|[[Newt Gingrich]]
|[[Newt Gingrich]]
|It's difficult to take seriously someone who relies so heavily on [[Facebook]]; even [[liberal]] [[Hollywood]] preferred ''The King's Speech'' at the [[Oscars]]. Her taxation policies were somewhat liberal.<ref>http://community.adn.com/node/112712</ref> Appointed a former [[Planned Parenthood]] board member to the [[Alaska]] Supreme Court and inexplicably resigned early as governor; lags in fundraising despite publicity,<ref name="April%252525202010%25252520Fundraising"/> came in a disappointing fifth in the [[Values Voter Summit]] in September 2010 and fared badly at [[CPAC]]. Several of her prominent 2010 candidates (Ken Buck, Joe Miller, Christine O'Donnell) struck out on Nov. 2nd, and many Republicans from [[George W. Bush]] to [[Peggy Noonan]] have been critical of her running for president.<ref>http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Election-2010/Vox-News/2010/1106/Republican-establishment-takes-on-Sarah-Palin</ref> 58% of American voters in a May poll said they would '''''never''''' vote for her.<ref name="Quinnipiac"/>. Frequently mocked and subjected to personal attacks from the [[liberal media]].
|It's difficult to take seriously someone who relies so heavily on [[Facebook]]; even [[liberal]] [[Hollywood]] preferred ''The King's Speech'' at the [[Oscars]]. Her taxation policies were somewhat liberal.<ref>http://community.adn.com/node/112712</ref> Appointed a former [[Planned Parenthood]] board member to the [[Alaska]] Supreme Court and inexplicably resigned early as governor; lags in fundraising despite publicity,<ref name="April%252525202010%25252520Fundraising"/> came in a disappointing fifth in the [[Values Voter Summit]] in September 2010 and fared badly at [[CPAC]]. Several of her prominent 2010 candidates (Ken Buck, Joe Miller, Christine O'Donnell) struck out on Nov. 2nd, and many Republicans from [[George W. Bush]] to [[Peggy Noonan]] have been critical of her running for president.<ref>http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Election-2010/Vox-News/2010/1106/Republican-establishment-takes-on-Sarah-Palin</ref> 58% of American voters in a May poll said they would '''''never''''' vote for her.<ref name="Quinnipiac"/>. Frequently mocked and subjected to personal attacks from the [[liberal media]].
|Disappearing below the memoirs of her infamous daughter
|Disappearing below the memoirs of her infamous daughter
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|[[Rick Santorum]]
|Outspoken supporter of conservative values as a senator, well-received by Iowan evangelicals at campaign-like event in March 2010, strongly socially conservative.
|His all-out support of [[RINO]] and now-Democrat [[Arlen Specter]] prevented [[Pat Toomey]] from defeating him in 2002, could simply be a [[stalking horse]] for Romney, who he endorsed in 2008.
|Was fabulous in the Iowa debate Aug. 10th, hopes to climb in the polls
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|[[Jon Huntsman, Jr.]]
|[[Jon Huntsman, Jr.]]
|Has foreign policy and executive experience. Appealing to moderates, although this is because he holds numerous liberal stances.
|Has foreign policy and executive experience. Appealing to moderates, although this is because he holds numerous liberal stances.
|Worked in the Obama administration; Criticized the [[economic stimulus package]] as not being big enough, favors Comprehensive Immigration Reform, supports civil unions, and is a believer in man-made global warming; could simply be a [[Utah]] decoy used by [[Team Newt]] to siphon support from [[Mitt Romney]]
|Worked in the Obama administration; Criticized the [[economic stimulus package]] as not being big enough, favors Comprehensive Immigration Reform, supports civil unions, and is a believer in man-made global warming; could simply be a [[Utah]] decoy used by [[Team Newt]] to siphon support from [[Mitt Romney]]
|Not getting much support
|Not getting much support, except among the media and multiple Democrats
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|[[Chris Christie]]
|[[Chris Christie]]
|Significantly overweight, Picked a [[pro-abortion]] running mate when he ran for governor, and has little experience with national issues; repeatedly says he is not running; campaigned for [[RINO]] [[Mike Castle]] in [[Delaware]] who was then defeated; neither added [[New Jersey]] to one of the lawsuits against [[ObamaCare]] nor joined an [[amicus brief]] against it; ''will probably support [[Mitt Romney]]''.
|Significantly overweight, Picked a [[pro-abortion]] running mate when he ran for governor, and has little experience with national issues; repeatedly says he is not running; campaigned for [[RINO]] [[Mike Castle]] in [[Delaware]] who was then defeated; neither added [[New Jersey]] to one of the lawsuits against [[ObamaCare]] nor joined an [[amicus brief]] against it; ''will probably support [[Mitt Romney]]''.
|Attaining budget cuts, particularly to [[Planned Parenthood]], Christie has become the leading contender for Vice President
|Attaining budget cuts, particularly to [[Planned Parenthood]], Christie has become the leading contender for Vice President
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|[[Marco Rubio]]
|[[Marco Rubio]]
|[[Bobby Jindal]]
|[[Bobby Jindal]]
|Conservative Governor of [[Louisiana]], strong critic of [[Obama]]'s handling of the [[Gulf oil spill]] in the summer of 2010
|Conservative Governor of [[Louisiana]], strong critic of [[Obama]]'s handling of the [[Gulf oil spill]] in the summer of 2010
|Not well known yet; says he's not running for president.
|Says he's not running for president.
|Made a good statement on birth certificate issue
|Made a good statement on birth certificate issue
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|[[Gary Johnson]]
|[[Gary Johnson]]
|Former [[libertarian]] two-term governor of [[New Mexico]], he has been recommended by [[Ron Paul]] if Dr. Paul does not run for president; Johnson is a strong advocate of less government.
|Former [[libertarian]] two-term governor of [[New Mexico]], he has been recommended by [[Ron Paul]], Johnson is a strong advocate of a libertarian belief system.
|Like other libertarians but unlike most Republicans, Johnson favors legalizing marijuana, expanding legal [[immigration]] and allowing same-sex unions. Given the likelihood that Ron Paul will run, there is very little potential support for Gary Johnson in this election cycle.
|Like other libertarians but unlike most Republicans, Johnson favors legalizing marijuana, expanding legal [[immigration]] and allowing same-sex unions. Given Ron Paul's run, there seems to be little support for Gary Johnson in this election cycle.
|Cannot get much support with Ron Paul in the same race
|Cannot get much support with Ron Paul in the same race
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|[[Scott Brown]]
|[[Scott Brown]]
|Proven ability to appeal to moderate voters even in a blue state
|Proven ability to appeal to moderate voters even in a blue state
|Inexperience; already voting with the Democrats in the Senate; voted to repeal [[DADT]]
|Inexperience; already voting with the Democrats in the Senate; voted to repeal [[DADT]], will not repeal [[Obamacare]].
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