| | '''''The next elections are caucuses on February 4 in [[Nevada]] and [[Maine]]'''''.<ref>For the primary schedule, see http://www.2012presidentialelectionnews.com/2012-republican-primary-schedule/</ref> The next '''''debate''''' is scheduled for February 22. '''''The latest delegate totals can be viewed [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_delegate_count.html here]''''' - but beware of tallies that show the Florida delegates as winner-take-all when [[Republican Party]] rules prohibited that prior to April 1 and Gingrich has indicated he will challenge it. | | '''''The next elections are caucuses on February 4 in [[Nevada]] and [[Maine]]'''''.<ref>For the primary schedule, see http://www.2012presidentialelectionnews.com/2012-republican-primary-schedule/</ref> The next '''''debate''''' is scheduled for February 22. '''''The latest delegate totals can be viewed [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_delegate_count.html here]''''' - but beware of tallies that show the Florida delegates as winner-take-all when [[Republican Party]] rules prohibited that prior to April 1 and Gingrich has indicated he will challenge it. |
| − | The '''Presidential Election 2012''' is on Tuesday, November 6, 2012. No incumbent has won reelection in the past 70 years with unemployment above 7.2%; reported unemployment is nearly 9% (and real unemployment much higher) less than 12 months before the election. [[Barack Obama]] also cannot win reelection unless he carries [[Florida]], where he has a high disapproval rating; he is likewise polling poorly in the key swing states of [[Ohio]], [[Virginia]] and [[North Carolina]]. | + | The '''Presidential Election 2012''' is on Tuesday, November 6, 2012. No incumbent has won reelection in the past 70 years with unemployment above 7.2%; reported unemployment is over 8% (and real unemployment much higher) only 9 months before the election. [[Barack Obama]] also cannot win reelection unless he carries [[Florida]], where he has a high disapproval rating; he is likewise polling poorly in the key swing states of [[Ohio]], [[Virginia]] and [[North Carolina]]. |
| | It is virtually impossible for a candidate to win a majority of delegates before June 2012, and no candidate has been able to win more than 50% in a single primary. Increasingly the race is a two-man contest between [[Newt Gingrich]] and [[Mitt Romney]]. About 1,144 delegates<ref>http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/republicanracelateentry/</ref> are needed to win the nomination. Primaries held before April 1, 2012, will award delegates based on the proportionality of the votes (except Florida seeks winner-take-all, at half the delegate count, for its primary on Jan. 31). Beginning on April 1, the traditional winner-take-all system may be used by states, but the second biggest state, Texas (155 delegates), will be proportional, and the biggest state, California (172 delegates), will be winner-take-all by each of its 53 congressional districts.<ref>http://www.contracostatimes.com/california/ci_19843184</ref> The dates of the primaries are [http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/events.phtml?s=c here]. | | It is virtually impossible for a candidate to win a majority of delegates before June 2012, and no candidate has been able to win more than 50% in a single primary. Increasingly the race is a two-man contest between [[Newt Gingrich]] and [[Mitt Romney]]. About 1,144 delegates<ref>http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/republicanracelateentry/</ref> are needed to win the nomination. Primaries held before April 1, 2012, will award delegates based on the proportionality of the votes (except Florida seeks winner-take-all, at half the delegate count, for its primary on Jan. 31). Beginning on April 1, the traditional winner-take-all system may be used by states, but the second biggest state, Texas (155 delegates), will be proportional, and the biggest state, California (172 delegates), will be winner-take-all by each of its 53 congressional districts.<ref>http://www.contracostatimes.com/california/ci_19843184</ref> The dates of the primaries are [http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/events.phtml?s=c here]. |