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United States presidential election, 2012 (view source)

Revision as of 15:39, May 2, 2012

389 bytes removed , 15:39, May 2, 2012

updates including next primary contests

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'''''The ~~latest~~ [[GOP]] [[primary|primaries]] ~~were~~ held on ~~April 24~~ in [[~~Connecticut~~]], [[~~Delaware]], [[New York]], [[Pennsylvania~~]], and [[~~Rhode Island~~]]'''.<ref>For the primary schedule, see http://www.2012presidentialelectionnews.com/2012-republican-primary-schedule/</ref> Currently no additional Republican debates are scheduled.<ref>[http://www.2012presidentialelectionnews.com/2012-debate-schedule/2011-2012-primary-debate-schedule/ 2012 Primary Debate Schedule]</ref> For an analysis of the likely nominees for [[Vice President]], see [[Vice President 2012|here]].

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'''''The next [[GOP]] [[primary|primaries]] will be held on May 8 in [[Indiana]], [[North Carolina]], and [[West Virginia]]'''.<ref> Only Mitt Romney and Ron Paul remain as active candidates. For the primary schedule, see http://www.2012presidentialelectionnews.com/2012-republican-primary-schedule/</ref> Currently no additional Republican debates are scheduled.<ref>[http://www.2012presidentialelectionnews.com/2012-debate-schedule/2011-2012-primary-debate-schedule/ 2012 Primary Debate Schedule]</ref> For an analysis of the likely nominees for [[Vice President]], see [[Vice President 2012|here]].

The '''Presidential Election 2012''' is on Tuesday, November 6, 2012. No incumbent has won reelection in the past 70 years with unemployment above 7.2%; reported unemployment is currently more than 8% (and real unemployment much higher) less than 7 months before the election. [[Barack Obama]] also cannot win reelection unless he carries [[Florida]], where he has a high disapproval rating; he is likewise polling poorly in the key swing states of [[Ohio]], [[Virginia]] and [[North Carolina]].

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The [[Republican Party]] is in the process of selecting its nominee through the [[2012 Republican Primary]]; the latest delegate totals are [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_delegate_count.html here] and [http://www.politico.com/2012-election/delegate-tracker/ here]''''' - but beware of tallies that show the Florida delegates as winner-take-all when [[Republican Party]] rules prohibited that prior to April 1 and Gingrich has indicated he will challenge it, and which include uncommitted or unbound delegates.

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The [[Republican Party]] is in the process of selecting its nominee through the [[2012 Republican Primary]]; the latest delegate totals are [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_delegate_count.html here] and [http://www.politico.com/2012-election/delegate-tracker/ here]''''' - but beware of tallies that show the Florida delegates as winner-take-all when [[Republican Party]] rules prohibited that prior to April 1 and Newt Gingrich has indicated he will challenge it, and which include uncommitted or unbound delegates.

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About 1,144 delegates<ref>http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/republicanracelateentry/</ref> are needed to win the nomination. Primaries held before April 1, 2012, awarded delegates based on the proportionality of the votes (except Florida claimed to award winner-take-all, at half the delegate count, for its primary on Jan. 31). However, some early states are winner-take-all by Congressional district, sometimes leading to a single candidate taking a large majority of the delegates. For instance, in South Carolina, the winner of each district got 2 delegates (for a total of 14), and the winner of the state got 11. This was permissible because less than 50% of the delegates were awarded to the state winner automatically. Newt Gingrich won all but one Congressional district, as well as the state overall, earning him 23 delegates to Mitt Romney's 2. Beginning on April 1, the traditional winner-take-all system may be used by states, but the second biggest state, Texas (155 delegates), will be proportional, and the biggest state, California (172 delegates), will be winner-take-all by each of its 53 congressional districts.<ref>http://www.contracostatimes.com/california/ci_19843184</ref> '''Only seven primaries totalling a small number of delegates are winner-take-all'''; New York ~~will only be~~ winner take all if one candidate ~~wins~~ more than 50% of the vote.<ref>http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/DC-Decoder/2012/0131/Florida-primary-Why-it-s-one-of-the-last-few-winner-take-all-states</ref> The dates of the primaries are [http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/events.phtml?s=c here].

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About 1,144 delegates<ref>http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/republicanracelateentry/</ref> are needed to win the nomination. Primaries held before April 1, 2012, awarded delegates based on the proportionality of the votes (except Florida claimed to award winner-take-all, at half the delegate count, for its primary on Jan. 31). However, some early states are winner-take-all by Congressional district, sometimes leading to a single candidate taking a large majority of the delegates. For instance, in South Carolina, the winner of each district got 2 delegates (for a total of 14), and the winner of the state got 11. This was permissible because less than 50% of the delegates were awarded to the state winner automatically. Newt Gingrich won all but one Congressional district, as well as the state overall, earning him 23 delegates to Mitt Romney's 2. Beginning on April 1, the traditional winner-take-all system may be used by states, but the second biggest state, Texas (155 delegates), will be proportional, and the biggest state, California (172 delegates), will be winner-take-all by each of its 53 congressional districts.<ref>http://www.contracostatimes.com/california/ci_19843184</ref> '''Only seven primaries totalling a small number of delegates are winner-take-all'''; New York was winner-take-all only if one candidate were to win more than 50% of the vote.<ref>http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/DC-Decoder/2012/0131/Florida-primary-Why-it-s-one-of-the-last-few-winner-take-all-states</ref> The dates of the primaries are [http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/events.phtml?s=c here].

__NOTOC__

== Ranking by Likelihood of Winning Republican Nomination ==

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|[[Newt Gingrich]]

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|The [[pro-life]] candidate most opposed by [[liberal]]s due to his political effectiveness in accomplishing [[conservative]] goals. Newt is the only contender who stands up forcefully to liberals and to the [[lamestream media]]. ~~His debate performances have earned him a reputation as the Republican most capable of winning debates against Obama. Newt~~ had the early backing of Fox News before [[John McCain]] backed [[Mitt Romney]] instead, which caused Fox News to switch sides. Newt has by far the strongest record of achievements of any candidate, including passing [[conservative]] legislation that included welfare reform, [[DOMA]], the [[Solomon Amendment]], and even [[term limits]]. Newt also had the courage to shut down the government. His story of overcoming being orphaned is inspirational. Has been endorsed by conservatives such as [[Fred Thompson]], [[Rick Perry]], [[Michael Reagan]], and [[Herman Cain]].

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|The [[pro-life]] candidate most opposed by [[liberal]]s due to his political effectiveness in accomplishing [[conservative]] goals. Newt is the only contender who stands up forcefully to liberals and to the [[lamestream media]]. He had the early backing of Fox News before [[John McCain]] backed [[Mitt Romney]] instead, which caused Fox News to switch sides. Newt has by far the strongest record of achievements of any candidate, including passing [[conservative]] legislation that included welfare reform, [[DOMA]], the [[Solomon Amendment]], and even [[term limits]]. Newt also had the courage to shut down the government. His story of overcoming being orphaned is inspirational. Has been endorsed by conservatives such as [[Fred Thompson]], [[Rick Perry]], [[Michael Reagan]], and [[Herman Cain]].

|His many decades in public life make him vulnerable to negative political ads. His personal life has been criticized: his first marriage was annulled, and he's been married twice since. Ron Paul is particularly critical of Newt, although many of Dr. Paul's supporters are likely to prefer Newt over Mitt Romney.

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|~~Retook the #2 spot after [[Rick Santorum]] surprisingly quit.~~ Newt's rousing debate performances the week of Jan. 17th in South Carolina led to a landslide victory for ~~Gingrich~~ in the South Carolina primary. Prior to that, his strong debate performances and the weaknesses of other rivals to Romney had already pushed Gingrich up to #2. His strategy of criticizing the media in the debates has been brilliant. However, he carried only Georgia on Super Tuesday and lost Tennessee, Alabama, and Mississippi to Santorum. See: [[Gingrich Administration]] for an analysis of his hypothetical Cabinet.

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|Newt's rousing debate performances the week of Jan. 17th in South Carolina led to a landslide victory for him in the South Carolina primary. Prior to that, his strong debate performances and the weaknesses of other rivals to Romney had already pushed Gingrich up to #2. His strategy of criticizing the media in the debates has been brilliant. However, he carried only Georgia on Super Tuesday and lost Tennessee, Alabama, and Mississippi to Santorum. See: [[Gingrich Administration]] for an analysis of his hypothetical Cabinet. Gingrich withdrew from the race during the first week of May.

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|[[Jeb Bush]]

|Jeb is the most likely to win if none of the final four candidates can gain a majority of the delegates; in the general election, Jeb is sure to win Florida, and Obama cannot win reelection without Florida; [[George W. Bush]]'s book sold far better than expectations, making the name an asset again; Jeb could unite the Republican Party with a late candidacy; is more conservative than his brother [[George W. Bush]]; Jeb has already criticized Palin as a rival candidate might;<ref>In a Newsmax interview in February 2010, Jeb criticized Palin by saying, "my belief is in 2010 and 2012, public leaders need to have intellectual curiosity." [http://www.newser.com/story/81720/jeb-bush-sarah-palin-not-intellectual-enough.html]</ref> Jeb published an editorial on Jan. 3, 2011 taking credit for saving Florida [[public schools]] with vouchers.<ref>http://www.politifact.com/florida/statements/2011/jan/03/jeb-bush/jeb-bush-touts-education-gains-wall-street-journal/</ref>

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|Jeb's only chance is if there is a deadlock at the [[Republican National Convention]]. Jeb says he does not intend to run in 2012. ~~Jeb~~ knows that he would be viewed negatively by some as the "third" Bush, but everyone expects him to run at some point and he's not getting any younger. Jeb is disliked by some Tea Partiers, but not as disliked as Romney. Endorsed [[Mitt Romney]] <ref>http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/03/21/breaking-jeb-bush-endorses-romney/</ref>.

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|Jeb's only chance is if there is a deadlock at the [[Republican National Convention]]. Jeb says he does not intend to run in 2012. He knows that he would be viewed negatively by some as the "third" Bush, but everyone expects him to run at some point and he's not getting any younger. Jeb is disliked by some Tea Partiers, but not as disliked as Romney. Endorsed [[Mitt Romney]] <ref>http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/03/21/breaking-jeb-bush-endorses-romney/</ref>.

|Jeb will not want to wait until 2020 to run, which may be his next opportunity if a Republican wins in 2012 amid the persistent high unemployment. He has endorsed Romney for 2012.

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|Stongly conservative across the board, family man, well-received by evangelicals. He has received a 100% rating from the [[National Right to Life Committee]] for his pro-life voting record during his time in the Senate. The [[NRA]] has given him an A+ lifetime rating for protecting 2nd Amendment rights<ref>http://votesmart.org/candidate/evaluations/27054/rick-santorum</ref>.

|Almost certainly began as a [[stalking horse]] for [[Mitt Romney]], hoping Mitt will appoint him to a government position, and may now be seeking to be Romney's VP. Rick's all-out support of [[RINO]] and now-Democrat [[Arlen Specter]] prevented [[Pat Toomey]] from defeating him in 2002, although he regretted it at CPAC 2010; Santorum endorsed Romney in 2008 rather than more conservative candidates. Santorum's tax plan has been criticized for adding even more people to the number not required to pay federal income taxes, and he's been criticized for supporting earmarks while in the Senate.

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|Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine, a former [[U.S. Senator]], switched his endorsement from Romney to Santorum on Feb. 17, helping lift Santorum to a razor-thin loss to Romney in the Ohio primary. Rick is fabulous in debates and television interviews. Won an upset victory in the [[Iowa Caucuses]], but was an also-ran in the New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida primaries before rebounding to win Missouri, Minnesota, Colorado, North Dakota, and most of the Southern states.

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|Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine, a former [[U.S. Senator]], switched his endorsement from Romney to Santorum on Feb. 17, helping lift Santorum to a razor-thin loss to Romney in the Ohio primary. Rick is fabulous in debates and television interviews. Won an upset victory in the [[Iowa Caucuses]], but was an also-ran in the New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida primaries before rebounding to win primaries in Missouri, Minnesota, Colorado, North Dakota, and most of the Southern states.

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|[[Sarah Palin]]

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|[[Rick Perry]]

|Announced his candidacy late, on August 13. He is a conservative-talking governor who has run [[Texas]] for a decade (since [[George W. Bush]] became president); crushed [[RINO]] [[Kay Bailey Hutchison]] in the 2010 primary and then won a landslide in the general election, carrying others to victory on his strong coattails; has an excellent jobs record in his State and which he can contrast with liberal-run states. Strong religious faith that he is not afraid to show. Understands the concept of [[states' rights]]. Is a formidable fundraiser.

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|Pulled out on the eve of the South Carolina primary~~, so his only chance is to be selected at the [[Republican National Convention]]~~. ~~But he~~ may be more conservative in his rhetoric than his policies; endorsed [[RINO]] [[Rudy Giuliani]] in 2008; tried by executive order to force all schoolgirls (except for parental opt-outs) to receive the [[HPV vaccine]]; raised business taxes while governor; supports exceptions for allowing [[abortion]]; and continues to champion a Texas policy that allows in-state tuition for illegal immigrants. Did poorly in the Values Voter Summit [[straw poll]].

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|Pulled out on the eve of the South Carolina primary. He may be more conservative in his rhetoric than his policies; endorsed [[RINO]] [[Rudy Giuliani]] in 2008; tried by executive order to force all schoolgirls (except for parental opt-outs) to receive the [[HPV vaccine]]; raised business taxes while governor; supports exceptions for allowing [[abortion]]; and continues to champion a Texas policy that allows in-state tuition for illegal immigrants. Did poorly in the Values Voter Summit [[straw poll]].

|Stumbled in his first major statements on [[abortion]], [[same-sex marriage]], and illegal immigration. Was ahead in national polls after his declaration of candidacy, then fell dramatically following a series of poor debate performances that raised doubts about his [[electability]]. Suspended his campaign on January 19 and endorsed Gingrich.

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|[[Rand Paul]]

|Could be the next [[Ronald Reagan]]; is the heir-apparent to massive support for [[Ron Paul]]; won the [[U.S. Senate]] seat by a 56-44% landslide in 2010, despite an intense effort by [[liberals]] to smear and defeat him; is 100% [[pro-life]]. Failure of Congress to cut spending enhances likelihood that voters will turn to someone strong on reducing government.

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|Rand, immensely popular after his landslide victory for Senate, will not run for president unless his dad drops his own campaign for the same office~~. Time is running out for Rand to assert himself as the candidate in 2012~~.

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|Rand, immensely popular after his landslide victory for Senate, will not run for president unless his dad drops his own campaign for the same office.

|Supporting his dad's run for President.

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|[[Bobby Jindal]]

|Conservative Governor of [[Louisiana]], strong critic of [[Obama]]'s handling of the [[Gulf oil spill]] in the summer of 2010.

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|Says he's not running for president~~. Has endorsed Perry~~.

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|Says he's not running for president.

|Made a good statement on birth certificate issue

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|[[Mike Pence]]

|Communicates a very strong conservative message: "a Christian, a conservative and a Republican, in that order." Won straw poll held at the [[Values Voter Summit]] in September 2010. On Nov. 3rd, gave up his House leadership position. Has since announced a run for Governor of Indiana in 2012.

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|Announced on Jan. 27, 2011 that he's not running for president; previously he unsuccessfully proposed a "comprehensive" immigration plan that was widely criticized by conservatives; lacks legislative achievements; not well-known and has never won statewide office~~; either he or Huckabee could become a stalking horse for Newt Gingrich with respect to evangelical voters in Iowa~~

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|Announced on Jan. 27, 2011 that he's not running for president; previously he unsuccessfully proposed a "comprehensive" immigration plan that was widely criticized by conservatives; lacks legislative achievements; not well-known and has never won statewide office.

|Focusing on the Indiana governorship

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|Won landslide election as [[Virginia]] governor; has Obama's height

|Not widely known yet, but gave Republican response to State of the Union in 2010; seemed more conservative as a candidate than as governor

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|~~Falling into obscurity but may re-emerge as a~~ Vice Presidential ~~contender because of~~ Virginia's importance as a swing state that Obama won in 2008.

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|Seems to be courting the Vice Presidential nomination using Virginia's importance as a swing state that Obama won in 2008.

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|[[Rudy Giuliani]]

Wycliffe

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