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| − | '''''The next [[GOP]] [[primary|primaries]] will be held on May 8 in [[Indiana]], [[North Carolina]], and [[West Virginia]]'''.<ref> Only Mitt Romney and Ron Paul remain as active candidates. For the primary schedule, see http://www.2012presidentialelectionnews.com/2012-republican-primary-schedule/</ref> Currently no additional Republican debates are scheduled.<ref>[http://www.2012presidentialelectionnews.com/2012-debate-schedule/2011-2012-primary-debate-schedule/ 2012 Primary Debate Schedule]</ref> For an analysis of the likely nominees for [[Vice President]], see [[Vice President 2012|here]]. | + | The '''Presidential Election 2012''' is on Tuesday, November 6, 2012. No incumbent has won reelection in the past 70 years with unemployment above 7.2%; reported unemployment is currently more than 8% (and real unemployment much higher) less than 7 months before the election. The [[economy]] grew less than predicted in the first quarter, and "the last time the economy was this slow was in the last year of President [[George H.W. Bush]]’s one term in office" - '''''who then lost reelection'''''.<ref>http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Elections/President/2012/0427/GDP-report-puts-Obama-in-economic-gray-zone.-Will-Republicans-profit</ref> [[Barack Obama]] also cannot win reelection unless he carries [[Florida]], where he has a high disapproval rating; he is likewise polling poorly in the key swing states of [[Ohio]], [[Virginia]] and [[North Carolina]]. |
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| − | The '''Presidential Election 2012''' is on Tuesday, November 6, 2012. No incumbent has won reelection in the past 70 years with unemployment above 7.2%; reported unemployment is currently more than 8% (and real unemployment much higher) less than 7 months before the election. The [[economy]] grew less than predicted in the first quarter, and "the last time the economy was this slow was in the last year of President [[George H.W. Bush]]’s one term in office" - '''''who then lost reelection'''''.<ref>http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Elections/President/2012/0427/GDP-report-puts-Obama-in-economic-gray-zone.-Will-Republicans-profit</ref> [[Barack Obama]] also cannot win reelection unless he carries [[Florida]], where he has a high disapproval rating; he is likewise polling poorly in the key swing states of [[Ohio]], [[Virginia]] and [[North Carolina]].
| + | 40% of ''[[Democrats]]'' voted against [[Obama]] in the [[Arkansas]] and [[Kentucky]] primaries Tuesday, and in Arkansas Obama was not declared the winner of his own primary by some in the media until nearly midnight.<ref>http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/229023-in-kentucky-42-percent-of-dems-pick-uncommitted-instead-of-obama</ref> |
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| | The [[Republican Party]] is in the process of selecting its nominee through the [[2012 Republican Primary]]; the latest delegate totals are [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_delegate_count.html here] and [http://www.politico.com/2012-election/delegate-tracker/ here]. About 1,144 delegates<ref>http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/republicanracelateentry/</ref> are needed to win the nomination.<ref>Primaries held before April 1, 2012, awarded delegates based on the proportionality of the votes (except Florida claimed to award winner-take-all, at half the delegate count, for its primary on Jan. 31). However, some early states are winner-take-all by Congressional district, sometimes leading to a single candidate taking a large majority of the delegates. For instance, in South Carolina, the winner of each district got 2 delegates (for a total of 14), and the winner of the state got 11. This was permissible because less than 50% of the delegates were awarded to the state winner automatically. Newt Gingrich won all but one Congressional district, as well as the state overall, earning him 23 delegates to Mitt Romney's 2. Beginning on April 1, the traditional winner-take-all system may be used by states, but the second biggest state, Texas (155 delegates), will be proportional, and the biggest state, California (172 delegates), will be winner-take-all by each of its 53 congressional districts. [http://www.contracostatimes.com/california/ci_19843184] Only seven primaries totalling a small number of delegates are winner-take-all; New York was winner-take-all only if one candidate were to win more than 50% of the vote. [http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/DC-Decoder/2012/0131/Florida-primary-Why-it-s-one-of-the-last-few-winner-take-all-states]</ref> The dates of the primaries are [http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/events.phtml?s=c here]. | | The [[Republican Party]] is in the process of selecting its nominee through the [[2012 Republican Primary]]; the latest delegate totals are [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_delegate_count.html here] and [http://www.politico.com/2012-election/delegate-tracker/ here]. About 1,144 delegates<ref>http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/republicanracelateentry/</ref> are needed to win the nomination.<ref>Primaries held before April 1, 2012, awarded delegates based on the proportionality of the votes (except Florida claimed to award winner-take-all, at half the delegate count, for its primary on Jan. 31). However, some early states are winner-take-all by Congressional district, sometimes leading to a single candidate taking a large majority of the delegates. For instance, in South Carolina, the winner of each district got 2 delegates (for a total of 14), and the winner of the state got 11. This was permissible because less than 50% of the delegates were awarded to the state winner automatically. Newt Gingrich won all but one Congressional district, as well as the state overall, earning him 23 delegates to Mitt Romney's 2. Beginning on April 1, the traditional winner-take-all system may be used by states, but the second biggest state, Texas (155 delegates), will be proportional, and the biggest state, California (172 delegates), will be winner-take-all by each of its 53 congressional districts. [http://www.contracostatimes.com/california/ci_19843184] Only seven primaries totalling a small number of delegates are winner-take-all; New York was winner-take-all only if one candidate were to win more than 50% of the vote. [http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/DC-Decoder/2012/0131/Florida-primary-Why-it-s-one-of-the-last-few-winner-take-all-states]</ref> The dates of the primaries are [http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/events.phtml?s=c here]. |
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| | |[[Mitt Romney]] | | |[[Mitt Romney]] |
| | |Preferred by [[RINO]]s and heavily favored by the Establishment; has business experience and was a Republican governor of a Democratic state who cut taxes and the deficit. Big money backs Romney in a big way, enabling him to benefit from millions of dollars in negative ads against his opponents, especially Newt Gingrich. Mitt came in second in [[Iowa]], first in [[New Hampshire]], a distant second in South Carolina, first in Florida, lost three states to Santorum on February 7, but then won in [[Arizona]] and [[Michigan]] on February 28 and in six other states on Super Tuesday, March 6. Has received endorsements from moderate and liberal Republicans such as [[Bob Dole]], [[John McCain]], [[Kelly Ayotte]], [[John Thune]], [[Jon Huntsman]], [[Chris Christie]],<ref>[http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/Chris-Christie-Mitt-Romney-Endorse-GOP-Republicans-2012-131530343.html http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/Chris-Christie-Mitt-Romney-Endorse-GOP-Republicans-2012-131530343.html]</ref> [[Dan Quayle]], [[Nikki Haley]], [[Tim Pawlenty]], [[Jeb Bush]], [[Marco Rubio]], and [[George H. W. Bush]]<ref>[http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/29/its-official-elder-bush-backs-romney/ It's official, elder Bush backs Romney] New york times 538 election blog. March, 29th 2012</ref>. Won the 2012 CPAC straw poll. | | |Preferred by [[RINO]]s and heavily favored by the Establishment; has business experience and was a Republican governor of a Democratic state who cut taxes and the deficit. Big money backs Romney in a big way, enabling him to benefit from millions of dollars in negative ads against his opponents, especially Newt Gingrich. Mitt came in second in [[Iowa]], first in [[New Hampshire]], a distant second in South Carolina, first in Florida, lost three states to Santorum on February 7, but then won in [[Arizona]] and [[Michigan]] on February 28 and in six other states on Super Tuesday, March 6. Has received endorsements from moderate and liberal Republicans such as [[Bob Dole]], [[John McCain]], [[Kelly Ayotte]], [[John Thune]], [[Jon Huntsman]], [[Chris Christie]],<ref>[http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/Chris-Christie-Mitt-Romney-Endorse-GOP-Republicans-2012-131530343.html http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/Chris-Christie-Mitt-Romney-Endorse-GOP-Republicans-2012-131530343.html]</ref> [[Dan Quayle]], [[Nikki Haley]], [[Tim Pawlenty]], [[Jeb Bush]], [[Marco Rubio]], and [[George H. W. Bush]]<ref>[http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/29/its-official-elder-bush-backs-romney/ It's official, elder Bush backs Romney] New york times 538 election blog. March, 29th 2012</ref>. Won the 2012 CPAC straw poll. |
| − | |Has big weaknesses with "[[Reagan Democrats]]," making it unlikely Romney can win the general election: Romney has a pro-[[abortion]] record and favors big corporations; Romney also continues to believe in [[liberal]] propaganda claiming [[global warming]] and is criticized for standing behind his [[ObamaCare]]-like health plan in [[Massachusetts]], which featured "the mandate" and taxpayer-funded abortion. The mostly tepid criticism of Romney by the [[lamestream media]] until they started forcefully attacking him after the voting officially started suggested that they wanted him to win so that they could defeat him in the general election. | + | |Has weaknesses with "[[Reagan Democrats]]," making it difficult Romney can win the general election: Romney has a pro-[[abortion]] record and favors big corporations, continued to believe in [[liberal]] propaganda claiming [[global warming]] long after it was discredited, and is criticized for standing behind his [[ObamaCare]]-like health plan in [[Massachusetts]], which featured "the mandate" and taxpayer-funded abortion. The mostly tepid criticism of Romney by the [[lamestream media]] until they started forcefully attacking him after the voting officially started suggested that they wanted him to win so that they could defeat him in the general election. |
| − | |Retook the #1 position with his primary victory in [[Illinois]], despite having lost many states in the South. Romney was strong in nearly all of the 20 debates but struggled to exceed 50% of the vote in many states. | + | |On May 29, 2012, with the Texas primary, Romney reportedly reached the number needed to secure the Republican nomination. |
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| | |[[Newt Gingrich]] | | |[[Newt Gingrich]] |