Economic Cycle Research Institute
The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is a leading expert on business cycles. The ECRI has a history of taking a conservative approach relative to its forecasts rather than engage in speculation. For example, in 2010 when many forecasters were declaring that the United States was about to go into a recession, the ECRI did not concur with them.[1]
Commentary on their economic forecasting record
The Economist magazine noted in 2005, “ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm.”[2]
The International Monetary Fund wrote: “ECRI ‘has actually had a very stellar record’ in forecasting recessions.”[3]
Blemish in their economic forecasting track record
The ECRI did not declare that a recession had begun until March 2008, three months after it officially began in December 2007. Years later this became the focus of an online debate during the "double-dip" scare of mid-2010. [4] [5]