Difference between revisions of "Shy Tory Factor"
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The Shy Tory Factor was present in both the 1992 general election and the 2015 general election. The polls for 1992 predicted a small [[Labour Party|Labour]] majority<ref>https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/exclusive-how-did-labour-lose-in-92-the-most-authoritative-study-of-the-last-general-election-is-1439286.html</ref> and the 2015 polls predicted a [[Hung Parliament]], <ref>https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/08/election-2015-how-shy-tories-confounded-polls-cameron-victory</ref> however both elections resulted in a Conservative majority. | The Shy Tory Factor was present in both the 1992 general election and the 2015 general election. The polls for 1992 predicted a small [[Labour Party|Labour]] majority<ref>https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/exclusive-how-did-labour-lose-in-92-the-most-authoritative-study-of-the-last-general-election-is-1439286.html</ref> and the 2015 polls predicted a [[Hung Parliament]], <ref>https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/08/election-2015-how-shy-tories-confounded-polls-cameron-victory</ref> however both elections resulted in a Conservative majority. | ||
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There is also speculation that this factor exists in the [[United States]] in cases where the [[Republican Party]] performed better than the pollsters predicted | There is also speculation that this factor exists in the [[United States]] in cases where the [[Republican Party]] performed better than the pollsters predicted | ||
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==References== | ==References== | ||
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[[Category:Conservatism]] | [[Category:Conservatism]] | ||
[[Category:United Kingdom]] | [[Category:United Kingdom]] | ||
| − | [[Category:British | + | [[Category:British History]] |
| + | [[Category:Political Terms]] | ||
Latest revision as of 01:24, August 29, 2018
The Shy Tory Factor is a British term used to explain anomalies in opinion polls, in which the Conservative Party does better than the opinion polls predicted. The main explanation is the idea that people often quietly support Conservative candidates in the privacy of the voting booth but chose not to tell this to the polling companies.
The Shy Tory Factor was present in both the 1992 general election and the 2015 general election. The polls for 1992 predicted a small Labour majority[1] and the 2015 polls predicted a Hung Parliament, [2] however both elections resulted in a Conservative majority.
There is also speculation that this factor exists in the United States in cases where the Republican Party performed better than the pollsters predicted
