Essay: Search results for "Russia demographics crisis" using the Russian search engine Yandex and Google Scholar. Fanatical Russophiles weep for Mother Russia who has a low fertility rate that is far below a replacement level of births

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Google Scholar indicates that there are 373,000 search results for the term "Russia demographic crisis". And as you can see above, the Russian search engine Yandex shows search results for "Russia demographic crisis" too.

Fanatical Russophiles weep for Mother Russia who has a low fertility rate that is significantly lower than a replacement level of births.

Russia's fertility rate of 1.58 births per woman is one of the lowest fertility rates in the world.[1] Russia's fertility rate is below the replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman.

Vladimir Putin's Special Military Operation in Ukraine, which looks awfully similar to an actual war, is making Russia's demographic crisis worse. See: Russia is dying out. The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis even worse
Russian demography has long been an existential issue to Vladimir Putin. In 2021, he declared “saving the people of Russia is our top national priority".[2]

Russia's fertility rate of 1.58 births per woman is one of the lowest fertility rates in the world.[1] Russia's fertility rate is below the replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman.

According to the Russian demographer Salavat Abylkalikov the war in Ukraine makes Russia's demographic crisis worse.[3]

Salavat Abylkalikov indicates:

“ In 2022, Russia's population growth rate was -0.38%. Assuming this rate persists, the population will halve in 184 years (according to Rosstat figures, Russia currently has 146.4 million inhabitants — The Bell). According to the UN's latest projection, Russia's population will be 112.2 million by 2100 under average circumstances.

The Covid-19 pandemic caused life expectancy in Russia to fall by 3.3 years. It quickly began to recover in 2022, rising by 2.7 years. However, the war has disrupted this progress, and life expectancy is now impacted by war-related deaths and stress-induced substance abuse. Lower incomes and worsening access to medication, diagnostics, equipment and treatment are further reducing life expectancy.

The war may also cause a decrease in inward migration, which has previously helped offset Russia's natural population decline. From 1992-2019, the natural loss was 13.8 million people, but inward migration compensated with 9.6 million. Russia could now find itself in a situation where natural and migratory losses reinforce one another...

Shifts in the age structure of the population pose a substantial demographic risk for Russia's economy. The generations born in the 1990s and 2000s, when Russia's birth rate was at its lowest, are now entering the labor market. This will exacerbate the existing crisis due to a lack of young workers. Meanwhile, the post-war generations of the 1950s and 60s are aging and approaching retirement.[4]

”

The main consequences of Russia's demographic crisis according to the Russian demographer Salavat Abylkalikov

The Russian demographer Salavat Abylkalikov says the main consequences of Russia's demographic crisis will be the following:

“ According to the average version of the UN forecast, Russia's population by 2050 may be about 133.4 million people, which is 14th in the world and below countries such as Egypt, the Philippines, and Mexico. But if Russia goes not according to the average, but according to the low option that is quite likely at the present time, then with a population of 123.2 million people we will drop to 16th place and will already be neighbors with Tanzania and Vietnam. Thus, the price of switching to the low scenario could be -10 million people, as well as a decrease in the place in the top countries in terms of population. Moreover, the low version of the UN forecast did not include too low or even negative migration growth.

A smaller population means a country's lower economic potential, a shrinking domestic market, worsening demographic problems and an aging population, as well as a decrease in the country's geopolitical power. The population size still correlates with the weight in international relations, the ability to promote their interests on the world stage. And the declining population for the largest country in the world may cause some neighbors on the continent, especially the eastern ones, to be tempted to solve their internal growing problems by some external adventures. But will Russia find anyone and how to fight back, will there be allies?[5]

”
Russia's population size.jpg

India Today[6] reported on February 27, 2023:

“ With over 65,000 Russian fighters having been killed in the war in Ukraine and 8 lakh people, mostly fighting-age men, fleeing the country, Russia is said to be staring at a population crisis. Russia might see fewer than 1.2 million births this year if the war in Ukraine continues, according to experts.

Other material related to the war in Ukraine making Russia's demographic crisis even worse:

By India Today World Desk: Experts warned that Russia might witness a 10 per cent decline in births this calendar year as thousands of Russian soldiers continue to die in the war being waged in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin launched what he termed a "special military operation" in Ukraine on February 24 last year. Since then, nearly 65,000 Russian fighters have died in Ukraine and over 100,300 have sustained grievous injuries.

As per reports, experts have estimated that Russia may see fewer than 1.2 million births this year if the war rages on in the near future.

Approximately, 800,000 people, mainly men of fighting age, have fled Russia since the war began in a bid to avoid active participation in the military offensive, according to a media report...

With a ceasefire looking elusive in the foreseeable future, Russia's situation may worsen as it has been recording a growing elderly population.[7]

”

In an interview with Rossiya-1 TV aired on February 26, 2023, Russian president Vladimir Putin said,

“ If we opt for [Russia’s disintegration], I think that the destinies of many peoples of Russia, and first of all the Russian people, of course, may change drastically. I even doubt that such an ethnic group as the Russian people will survive as it is today, with some Muscovites, Uralian and others remaining instead.

They [ the West ] have one goal of liquidating the former Soviet Union and its main part, the Russian Federation. And later, [after liquidating Russia] they will probably admit us to the so-called family of civilized peoples, but only by parts, each part separately. What for? For ordering those parts around and putting under their control.[8]

”

Articles on war in Ukraine making Russia's demographic crisis worse:

Russia, fertility rate and demographics videos

Demographic projections of Russia's future population

See also: Demographics of Russia

Map of Russia.

Approximately 7% of Russia's land is arable and suitable for agricultural production.

Demographers estimate Russia will fall from being the 9th most populous country in the world to being the 17th by 2050.[1] And estimates indicate that Russia's population will drop from 2014's 142 million to 128 million by 2050.[1]

The Jamestown Foundation's 2022 article Russia’s Demographic Collapse Is Accelerating notes:

“ Aleksey Raksha, an independent Russian demographer and perhaps the closest Russian counterpart to the late US expert Murray Feshbach, provides the most comprehensive discussion of these developments. He relies exclusively on the first results of the latest census, which were released earlier this summer (Vedomosti.ru, April 8), and a broader selection of demographic data that Rosstat, the Russian government’s statistical arm, has now released (Rosstat.gov.ru, August 2022), making it far harder for his words to be dismissed. The situation he outlines is devastating (Svoboda.org, August 9).

During the first five months of 2022, Russia’s population fell by 430,000, which far exceeded the figure for the same period in 2021 and one that points to another decline of more than one million people for 2022 as a whole. The 2021 figure reflects both the relationship of births and deaths among the permanent population and the size of migration flows. Last year, in-migration partially compensated for the greater number of deaths as compared to births, but this year, it has not. Instead, increased out-migration has contributed to the total population decline. The opening of the country to in-migration after the pandemic may lead to a slight improvement in the second half of 2022, but that will not be enough to compensate for the indigenous decline continuing into 2023 and throughout the coming decade (Osnmedia.ru, July 26).[9]

”

The journalist Isabelle Khurshudyan's 2020 article In Siberian coal country, signs of Russia’s shrinking population are everywhere. It ‘haunts’ Putin. notes:

“ A United Nations demographic report last year calculated that the “pessimistic” outlook for Russia is that the population will fall to 124.6 million by 2050 and to 83.7 million by 2100.

Raksha, the demographer, expects a bigger drop next year in another potential consequence of the pandemic. One indicator: Registered marriages this year through July were down 23 percent compared with the same period last year, according to Rosstat.

The pandemic made things “unpredictable, and in such situations, people delay birth,” said Raksha, who worked for Rosstat until this summer. Putin’s solution: promising tax breaks for larger families and stipends for those who have kids.[10]

”

Bloomberg News reported on October 18, 2022:

“ Plans by Putin’s government had set the goal of starting to reverse the decline in the population in 2022 before growth should resume in 2030. Yet weeks before the mobilization was announced in September, an internal report drafted for a closed-door meeting showed officials were already concluding those targets were unrealistic.

Citing the consequences of the coronavirus and migration outflows, the report instead proposed a revision that envisaged a decrease of 416,700 people in 2030.

Should military operations continue in the coming months, as expected, Russia may see less than 1.2 million births next year, the lowest in modern history, according to Igor Efremov, a researcher and specialist in demographics at the Gaidar Institute in Moscow.[11]

”

Russia's demographic crisis and its state of public health

Every year, 500,000 people die due to alcohol in Russia.[12]

Adam Gwiazda's article Demographic crisis in Russia states:

“ The state of public health is one of the most extreme aspects of the demographic crisis in Russia. As a result of the AIDS epidemic, alcoholism and the dreadful state of health care, in the years 2005-2015 the mortality rate in Russia was three times higher among men and twice as high among women as in other countries with a similar level of social and economic development. More than half of the deaths of Russians aged 15-54 were caused by alcohol abuse after the collapse of the USSR. It should be noted that even the increase in the income of the Russian population by about 80 per cent in the years 1999-2008 did not result in a decrease in the mortality rate. High Russian mortality is the result not only of “normally” treatable diseases, such as tuberculosis, but also of lifestyle: drinking vodka, smoking cigarettes and AIDS. Every year, 500,000 people die due to alcohol in Russia. This applies to both women and men. The drug problem is also huge, as the prices of drugs are lower than in Western countries.

Russia is also unable to cope with the prevention and treatment of cardiovascular diseases and cancer, which are the main cause of death. The problem is not only the lack of sufficient funds for health care (until mid-2005, about 4.2 per cent of GDP was allocated for this purpose, while in rich European countries it was on average 8-10 per cent of GDP), but also the country’s unfavorable social and economic situation, relatively low position of health and a long life on the Russian list of priorities, poverty, lack of responsibility for one’s own health, and bad habits.[13]

”
In 2023, Russia had the second highest alcoholism rate in the world as far as it being a problem with both genders.[14] In addition, in 2023 Russia had the highest alcoholism rate for males.[15] See also: Alcoholism in Russia

In 2019, it was reported that every year 500,000 people die due to alcohol in Russia.[16]

In 2023, Business Insider reported: "Russia lost the first Crimean War because of widespread alcoholism. Drinking is killing their troops in Ukraine, too, intel shows."[17]

Jerusalem Post: Many Russian troop deaths tied to alcohol, gun accidents, hypothermia -UK, 2023

Vladimir Putin's attempts to raise Russia's fertility rate is not expected to reverse Russia's population decline

The Yeltsin years had devastating consequences for Russia's population.

Fortune magazine reported in 2022: "For Putin, who just turned 70, Russian demography has long been an existential issue, and just last year he declared that “saving the people of Russia is our top national priority.” He’s presided over efforts to buy time with costly policies that contributed to a steep gain in longevity and ranged from lump payments for new mothers to mortgage relief for families".[18]

Bne IntelliNews indicated in 2022:

“ Between 1993 and 2008, Russia’s population saw a considerable decline in its population from 148.37mn to 143.25. However, after Russian President Vladimir Putin took over in 2000 he put demographics at the top of the agenda and launched a comprehensive reform to boost the population, as featured by bne IntelliNews in “Putin’s babies”. The fruits of these reforms began to appear in around 2008 when the population began growing again...

The population increased again to 145.9mn recently; however, the population was expected to peak at the end of 2020 and is projected to start declining again...

These problems were already very visible at the end of the 1990s, when demographers became increasingly alarmed at where Russia was heading.[1]

”

On December 3, 2022, Fortune magazine stated:

“ Since the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991, Russia has confronted a continued population slump due to low birth rates coupled with high mortality rates. Throughout his rule, Russian President Vladimir Putin has obsessed over Russia’s shrinking population. Last year, Putin encouraged Russians to build a “strong family [with] two, three, or four children. [This] should be the image of a future Russia.” This August, he revived the Soviet-era “Mother Heroine” award, which pays $16,000 to women who have 10 or more children.[19] ”

The Institute for Family Studies states concerning national policies to raise birth rates: "Pro-natal incentives do work: more money does yield more babies. Anybody saying otherwise is mischaracterizing the research. But it takes a lot of money. Truth be told, trying to boost birth rates to replacement rate purely through cash incentives is prohibitively costly."[20]

The Science for Truth Information Center published a list of recommendations to legislators and politicians in April 2021:

“ 1. To reconsider the level of cooperation with the UN and WHO and their funding in connection with activities that are contrary to the Constitution, Russian legislation and strategic goals for the sustainable growth of the population of the Russian Federation with an increase in life expectancy to 78 years. We are talking about the UN population policy in general and the promotion of the normality of homosexuality to children in the WHO sex education standards in particular.

2. To toughen the punishment for promoting homosexuality, transsexualism, abortion, childlessness and other types of depopulation behavior in the context of the current demographic crisis. Extend the ban on propaganda of depopulation ideologies to all age categories. [21]

”

Other articles related to Russia's demographic crisis

Quote

"Then Jesus said to him, ‘Put your sword back into its place; for all who take the sword will perish by the sword.'" (Matthew 26:52).

Other articles on Russia

Vladimir Putin

See also: Vladimir Putin is a corrupt kleptocrat and an authoritarian

War in Ukraine

International politics essays

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References

  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 Russian fertility rates fall to record lows on the back of a deteriorating economy and sanctions pressure, bne IntelliNews, 2022
  2. ↑ Russia’s population is in a historic decline as emigration, war and a plunging birth rate form a ‘perfect storm’, Fortune magazine, 2022
  3. ↑ Is Russia dying out? Our interview with a demographer, The Bell website, July 2023
  4. ↑ Is Russia dying out? Our interview with a demographer, The Bell website, July 2023
  5. ↑ "Until the end of the century, we will be enough." Demographer Salavat Abylkalikov - about whether Russia is dying and what to do about it, Russian demographer Salavat Abylkalikov
  6. ↑ Who Owns Your Media: The highs and lows of the India Today Group, By Pooja Bhula, NewsLaundry, 18 July, 2022.
  7. ↑ 65,000 fighters killed in Ukraine, growing elderly populace: Russia stares at population crisis, India Today, February 27, 2023
  8. ↑ Russian people may not survive in case of Russia’s dissolution, says Putin, Tass, 26 FEB 2023.
  9. ↑ Russia’s Demographic Collapse Is Accelerating by Paul Goble, Jamestown Foundation website, 2022
  10. ↑ In Siberian coal country, signs of Russia’s shrinking population are everywhere. It ‘haunts’ Putin, Washington Post by Isabelle Khurshudyan, 2020
  11. ↑ Putin’s War Escalation Is Hastening Demographic Crash for Russia, Bloomberg News, October 18, 2022
  12. ↑ Demographic crisis in Russia by Adam Gwiazda, 2019
  13. ↑ Demographic crisis in Russia by Adam Gwiazda, 2019
  14. ↑ Alcoholism by country
  15. ↑ Alcoholism by country
  16. ↑ Demographic crisis in Russia by Adam Gwiazda, 2019
  17. ↑ Russia lost the first Crimean War because of widespread alcoholism. Drinking is killing their troops in Ukraine, too, intel shows., Business Insider, 2023
  18. ↑ Russia’s population is in a historic decline as emigration, war and a plunging birth rate form a ‘perfect storm’, Fortune magazine, 2022
  19. ↑ Millennials and Gen Z are blaming Putin for intensifying Russia’s baby shortfall: ‘It’s pretty bad for us’, Fortune magazine, December 3, 2022
  20. ↑ Pro-Natal Policies Work, But They Come With a Hefty Price Tag, Institute for Family Studies, 2020
  21. ↑ The LGBT sect recruits your children, April 24, 2021. pro-lgbt.ru
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