Predicting ObamaCare Outcome

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What was the best prediction of the outcome in the ObamaCare decision preceding its announcement on Thursday, June 27, 2012? 85% of experts predict that ObamaCare will be upheld - can so many experts be so wrong?

Yes, the experts are wrong, and here's why:

  • ObamaCare does violate the limits in the Commerce Clause, and it is difficult to overcome that logic
  • while 85% of experts think ObamaCare will be upheld, probably 90% are unwilling to criticize Obama, so when adjusted for bias it indicates disbelief that ObamaCare will be upheld
  • So-called experts rarely live up to the expertise provided by the Best of the Public, who tend to think the individual mandate will be overturned.
  • Barack Obama's recent rudeness to the Supreme Court may lead some of the more liberal justices, such as Anthony Kennedy, to turn towards logic and truth over politics.
  • 95% of those same experts deny that logic/conservatism advances over time for the same reason technology does
  • ObamaCare could have been upheld more easily and quickly than to invalidate it
  • virtually all of the "experts" missed the boat, and continue to miss the boat, on Biblical Scientific Foreknowledge. Wrong about that, why would anyone expect them to be right about anything else?
  • the liberal White House inappropriately used ObamaCare to interfere with religious liberty, soon after the U.S. Supreme Court upheld by a 9-0 vote strong rights of religious organizations to fire workers for religious reasons

Update: the experts were wrong in predicting that the U.S. Supreme Court would uphold ObamaCare under the Commerce Clause, but an unusual opinion by the Chief Justice on an issue barely argued in the case—and expressly rejected by supporters of ObamaCare—provided the fifth vote to uphold the statute as a tax.