Red wave

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A red wave of Republican/conservative voters has been predicted by pundits in order to give a majority of Republicans in the U.S. Congress and potentially in U.S. Senate as well in the 2022 midterm U.S. Congressional elections.

Historically, in the midterm elections during a President's first term, the opposing party tends to gain seats, and frequently will gain the majority of the House since all 435 seats are up for re-election (this took place during the 2018 midterm elections when the Democrats, the party opposing Republican President Donald Trump, took House control, as well as in 2010 when the Republicans took House control from the Democrats, the party of President Barack Obama); the Senate (which only has 1/3 of its seats up for re-election each year not counting special elections to fill unexpired terms) is usually harder to reclaim. Similarly, in those instances where a President is re-elected, the midterm elections frequently go against his party (this was the case in 2014, when the Republicans gained 13 seats in the House and nine seats in the Senate, reclaiming control of the latter). Also, most states have their major elections (Governor and statewide races) in the same year as a midterm Congressional election, and thus a significant showing by one party or the other is often used as a gauge to determine potential strength in the upcoming Presidential election.

Based on these two factors, if history continues as usual (and the Democrats are unable to rig elections), the Republicans need to gain only five seats in the House to regain control of that chamber, and only one Senate seat to break the current tie. For examples, in Florida the current District 13 (held by party-switcher Democrat and former Governor Charlie Crist) is open as Crist intends to run for Governor and it also gained a 28th seat (the makeup of the districts is dependent on redistricting; although Republicans hold majorities in both chambers of the Florida Legislature, the state constitution requires districts to be generally compact geographically -- an exception is allowed for the widely-spread Florida Keys -- and therefore unlike other states Florida cannot gerrymander the districts to favor one party or the other). The Senate, however, will be harder to reclaim as the lone Republican Senator from Pennsylvania, Pat Toomey, is retiring, and Pennsylvania will likely repeat its rigging in 2020 to ensure a Democrat victory, even if the Georgia seat is reclaimed by the Republicans based on their strengthening of election laws to prevent the rigging from 2020 in that state.

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