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| | '''* Florida''' | | '''* Florida''' |
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| − | Democrat [[Bill Nelson]] is the incumbent. he will face Republican Representative Connie Mack. [[Rasmussen]] says Nelson is struggling to get above the 50 percent mark and is vulnerable if Romney carries Florida. | + | Democrat [[Bill Nelson]] is the incumbent. he will face Republican Representative Connie Mack. An average of polls has shown a near tie in the contest, bad news for an incumbent and Nelson cannot win if Romney takes Florida, a must-win state for him. |
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| | '''* Hawaii''' | | '''* Hawaii''' |
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| | '''* Missouri''' | | '''* Missouri''' |
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| − | Democrat [[Claire McCaskill]] is the incumbent and [[movement conservative]] [[Todd Akin]] is the [[Republican]] nominee. | + | Democrat [[Claire McCaskill]] is the incumbent and faces [[movement conservative]] [[Todd Akin]], the [[Republican]] nominee who leads her in the polls by an average of 6 percentage points. It will be hard for a Democrat to win in this state which is rapidly trending red. |
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| | '''* Montana''' | | '''* Montana''' |
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| | '''* Nevada''' | | '''* Nevada''' |
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| − | Republican [[Dean Heller]] was appointed in 2011 to replace [[John Ensign]] and is considered the incumbent. Barry Ellsworth [D], Nancy Price [D], Shelley Berkley [D] have declared. May 2012 polling has Heller with a 11 point lead. | + | Republican [[Dean Heller]] was appointed in 2011 to replace [[John Ensign]] and is considered the incumbent. He faces Rep. Shelley Berkley who cruised to victory in the Democratic primary. Polling has Heller with a lead of, on average, 4 points though he generally fails to break 50%, a crucial benchmark for an incumbent. |
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| | '''* New Jersey''' | | '''* New Jersey''' |