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Comparing medals from last olympics and expecting a country to get the same amount at the next olympics is pretty futile and a pointless exercise for a number of reasons. The biggest reason why it is pointless is due to the retirement of older and successful medal winning athletes and the emergence of the new generation of athletes in that sport. This is one of the main reasons why australia didn't win as many medals in 2012 as it did in 2008. The non swimming medal tally was pretty much the same, however the swimming team is going through a major generational change with a lot of the great athletes from 2008 retiring (or retiring and then failing to come back) that generation of swimming talent was a bit of a "bumper crop" similiar to what you have with phelps and locte. There was also a fair number of athletes who had ongoing injury concerns which doesn't help but that does happen in every team.Funding is also a big factor as olympic sport has got to the level that if you don't put large resources into your athletes your not going to have a very big chance at rating in the top 5 in an event. The funding for althletes in a lot of european countries from both the government and the private sector has dried up due to the economic conditions. Spain did really well considering this however thier performance in rio is likely to suffer as funding is unlikely to increase. For example the womens 6m team from spain that won gold, barely made it to the olympics as there was bugger all funding for it. --Nacacube 09:20, 15 August 2012 (EDT)--[[User:Nacacube|Nacacube]] 23:41, 15 August 2012 (EDT)
 
Comparing medals from last olympics and expecting a country to get the same amount at the next olympics is pretty futile and a pointless exercise for a number of reasons. The biggest reason why it is pointless is due to the retirement of older and successful medal winning athletes and the emergence of the new generation of athletes in that sport. This is one of the main reasons why australia didn't win as many medals in 2012 as it did in 2008. The non swimming medal tally was pretty much the same, however the swimming team is going through a major generational change with a lot of the great athletes from 2008 retiring (or retiring and then failing to come back) that generation of swimming talent was a bit of a "bumper crop" similiar to what you have with phelps and locte. There was also a fair number of athletes who had ongoing injury concerns which doesn't help but that does happen in every team.Funding is also a big factor as olympic sport has got to the level that if you don't put large resources into your athletes your not going to have a very big chance at rating in the top 5 in an event. The funding for althletes in a lot of european countries from both the government and the private sector has dried up due to the economic conditions. Spain did really well considering this however thier performance in rio is likely to suffer as funding is unlikely to increase. For example the womens 6m team from spain that won gold, barely made it to the olympics as there was bugger all funding for it. --Nacacube 09:20, 15 August 2012 (EDT)--[[User:Nacacube|Nacacube]] 23:41, 15 August 2012 (EDT)
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: Which is why you look at long-term trends. I agree that one Olympics' worth of data for two countries is pretty much useless. It will take more data to prove or disprove the theory. [[User:Gregkochuconn|Gregkochuconn]] 18:15, 21 August 2012 (EDT)
    
== Medal weighting ==
 
== Medal weighting ==
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