Changes

History is about the past; politics is about the future.  Unlike history, politics is constantly changing.  In some ways, politics is similar to a game in sports:  what happened on the last football play or baseball pitch is not likely to be copied for the next play or pitch.  Instead, the way the game is played is constantly changing.  How an election was won two or four years ago is probably not how it will be won next time.

History is about the past; politics is about the future.  Unlike history, politics is constantly changing.  In some ways, politics is similar to a game in sports:  what happened on the last football play or baseball pitch is not likely to be copied for the next play or pitch.  Instead, the way the game is played is constantly changing.  How an election was won two or four years ago is probably not how it will be won next time.

Around 1990, newspapers were far more powerful in influencing elections than they are today.  Newspapers are pro-abortion, and strongly favored pro-abortion (pro-choice) candidates.  They won easily.  Now, with newspapers weaker in influence and people being increasingly pro-life, candidates find it helpful to say they are pro-life.  An historian might think that pro-life candidates tend to lose by looking at 1990; a political analyst, looking to the future, would say the opposite.

But history can be a guide in predicting the future, and the presidential election between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama is being compared to two prior presidential elections:

 

 

In both 1980 and 1948, the economy was doing terribly, as it is now.  In both 1980 and 1948, an unpopular incumbent president was running for reelection, just as Barack Obama has low approval ratings today.  In 1980, the Republican challenger Ronald Reagan won by a landslide.  But in 1948, the Republican challenger Tom Dewey lost to the incumbent Harry Truman.  Will this year's election be more like 1980, or more like 1948?  What do you think?

== Politics as a Team Sport ==

== Politics as a Team Sport ==