Changes

Also, many political groups (including the conservative movement) are growing rapidly.  There are job opportunities.  Paul Ryan, the Vice Presidential candidate for the Republican Party in 2012, obtained a good job on the staff of a Congressman, and was later elected to Congress himself, earning a very good salary with a fantastic pension, and then was selected by Mitt Romney to be his running mate as Vice President.  His career was far better by participating in politics then it would likely have been outside of politics.

Also, many political groups (including the conservative movement) are growing rapidly.  There are job opportunities.  Paul Ryan, the Vice Presidential candidate for the Republican Party in 2012, obtained a good job on the staff of a Congressman, and was later elected to Congress himself, earning a very good salary with a fantastic pension, and then was selected by Mitt Romney to be his running mate as Vice President.  His career was far better by participating in politics then it would likely have been outside of politics.

== "Midterm" Elections ==

== The Swing States ==

Due to gerrymandering, however, fewer than 100 out of the 435 House seats are "in play," such that either party could win it.  Gerrymandering is one many new terms you will learn as part of this course.  Its name comes from a cartoon making fun of Governor Eldridge Gerry of Massachusetts in 1812, who signed into law a redistricting for state that used odd shapes in order to help his political party be elected. This is possible because voting patterns become predictable over time:  many neighborhoods are known to vote heavily Democratic or heavily Republican based on prior elections. 

Most of our discussion above has concerned the presidential election.  The office of president (and the Executive branch) is established by Article II of the U.S. Constitution, which is the document that defines how our national (federal) government works.  Our Founders who wrote the U.S. Constitution in 1787 and ratified it in 1788 felt that the Legislative branch, which consists of the bicameral Congress (comprised of the House of Representatives and Senate), would be more important than the presidency.

For example, San Francisco is a heavily Democratic area, and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi represents a "safe seat" there.  Indeed, more than 335 out of the 435 House seats represent districts that are safely Republican or safely Democratic.  In those districts, the only way to defeat an incumbent (the person in office running for reelection) is to defeat him in the primary.

On Election Day, all 435 House seats are up for election, and at least 33 out of 100 (U.S.) Senate seats are likewise on the ballot.  (Sometimes more Senate seats are on the ballot due to special elections to fill vacancies; without vacancies the number would be 33 one year, 33 two years later, and 34 two years after that.)

With the advent of the internet, there is up-to-the minute analysis of the likely outcomes in every election.  One site, "RealClearPolitics"(you might consider that website name to be an "oxymoron", or self-contradictory term, because politics is rarely "clear") provided this analysis on August 1:

Due to gerrymandering, fewer than 100 out of the 435 House seats are "in play," such that either party could win it.  Gerrymandering is one many new terms you will learn as part of this course.  Its name comes from a political cartoon making fun of Governor Eldridge Gerry of Massachusetts in 1812, who signed into law a redistricting for state that used odd shapes in order to help his political party be elected.  This is possible because voting patterns become predictable over time:  many neighborhoods are known to vote heavily Democratic or heavily Republican based on prior elections. 

*U.S. House of Representatives: 202 seats likely to be retained or won by Democrats in the election, 201 seats likely to be retained or won by Republicans in the election, and 32 "toss-up" seats that can be won by either side.

For example, San Francisco is a heavily Democratic area, and the leader of Democrats in Congress is Nancy Pelosi, who represents a "safe seat" there. Indeed, more than 335 out of the 435 House seats represent districts that are safely Republican or safely Democratic.  In those districts, the only way to defeat an incumbent (the person in office running for reelection) is to defeat him in the primary.

*U.S. Senate: 49 seats likely to be retained or won by Democrats, 43 likely to be retained or won by Republicans, and 8 "toss-up" seats.  Note that in the U.S. Senate there are two "Independents", but they vote for Democratic control so they are treated as Democratic.

With the advent of the internet, there is up-to-the minute analysis of the likely outcomes in every election.  One site, "RealClearPolitics", is a good source of the latest polling information.

*State Governors: 14 seats likely to be retained or won by Democrats, 24 likely to be retained or won by Republicans, and 11 seats are "toss-ups".  (Note that the election of the governor of New Jersey occurs only every four years in an ''odd-numbered'' year, not this year; Governor Chris Christie was elected in November 2009.)

== State Government ==

In 1994, when Democratic President Bill Clinton had approval ratings of 46%, his party (the Democratic Party) lost the following in the "midterm elections": 54 seats in the House, 8 seats in the Senate, 9 state governor seats, and 514 state legislator seats.  It was considered a landslide loss for the Democratic Party, one of its worst ever.  How will it do in two months?

The federal government, based in Washington, D.C., is only one part of government in the United States.  There is also state and local government, which can be more important in many cases.

 

For example, the police are part of state and local government, not the federal government.  There are state police officers who give tickets on the highways, and local police officers in each town.  Public schools, which spend more than $500 billion (that's billion, not million) each year, are part of local government.

 

An important part of this course is to know '''''which''''' government is responsible for which issue.  If you saw that a bridge collapsed during a rainstorm, then whom would you call to tell them to fix it, or at least close off the road?

== Homework ==

== Homework ==