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| | Under the Constitution, the members of the Electoral College meet on one day in December to elect the next president. A total of 270 Electoral College votes are needed by a candidate to win the election. If no candidate wins that many (as occurred in 1824), then the House of Representatives picks the next president. | | Under the Constitution, the members of the Electoral College meet on one day in December to elect the next president. A total of 270 Electoral College votes are needed by a candidate to win the election. If no candidate wins that many (as occurred in 1824), then the House of Representatives picks the next president. |
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| − | Nearly every State uses a winner-take-all system, such that the candidate who wins the popular vote in that state then receives all of its Electoral College votes. It does not matter if the candidate wins by 51-49$ or 75-25%, the winner receives the same number of Electoral College votes for that State: all of them. | + | Nearly every State uses a winner-take-all system, such that the candidate who wins the popular vote in that State then receives all of its Electoral College votes. It does not matter if the candidate wins by 51-49$ or 75-25%, the winner receives the same number of Electoral College votes for that State: all of them. |
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| | The nationwide polls of which candidate has more overall support are almost irrelevant at this point. What matters is who has more ''Electoral College'' support, and to calculate that number it requires looking at state-by-state polls. | | The nationwide polls of which candidate has more overall support are almost irrelevant at this point. What matters is who has more ''Electoral College'' support, and to calculate that number it requires looking at state-by-state polls. |
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| − | In more than 40 states one candidate is clearly ahead of the other candidate, and thus is likely to win all of the Electoral College votes for that State. In only a handful of states is the outcome uncertain this close to the election. These key states are Ohio, Nevada, Florida, and Virginia. | + | In more than 40 States one candidate is clearly ahead of the other candidate, and thus is likely to win all of the Electoral College votes for that State. In only a handful of States is the outcome uncertain this close to the election. These key States are Ohio, Nevada, Florida, and Virginia. Romney is expected to win Florida and Virginia as his poll numbers continue to improve. |
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| | + | Adding up the Electoral College votes and considering the different scenarios leads many experts to predict that the outcome in Ohio will decide this presidential election. Romney needs to win Ohio in order to reach 270 Electoral College votes. In 2004, the margin of victory for George W. Bush was one State: Ohio. And George W. Bush won by less than 100,000 votes there, even though he won the national popular vote by a significant margin. |
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| | + | History confirms that the outcome in Ohio between Romney and Obama will decide the overall winner: in every presidential election since 1960, the winner of Ohio has won the Electoral College and the election. Ohio is the only State to side with the winner in 12 out of the 12 last presidential elections. |
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| | + | Some experts expect Obama to win the presidential election because he remains slightly ahead of Romney in most polls in Ohio. |
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| | == More Political Terminology == | | == More Political Terminology == |