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Line 32: − The nationwide polls of which candidate has more overall support are almost irrelevant at this point. What matters is who has more ''Electoral College'' support, and to calculate that number it requires looking at state-by-state polls.+ − In more than 40 States one candidate is clearly ahead of the other candidate, and thus is likely to win all of the Electoral College votes for that State. In only a handful of States is the outcome uncertain this close to the election. These key States are Ohio, Nevada, Florida, and Virginia. Romney is expected to win Florida and Virginia as his poll numbers continue to improve.+ − Adding up the Electoral College votes and considering the different scenarios leads many experts to predict that the outcome in Ohio will decide this presidential election. Romney needs to win Ohio in order to reach 270 Electoral College votes. In 2004, the margin of victory for George W. Bush was one State: Ohio. And George W. Bush won by less than 100,000 votes there, even though he won the national popular vote by a significant margin.+ + + + + + + + + + + − +
American Government Lecture Seven (view source)
Revision as of 03:36, October 26, 2012
, 03:36, October 26, 2012→Is a tie possible between Romney and Obama this year?: expanded
Nearly every State uses a winner-take-all system, such that the candidate who wins the popular vote in that State then receives all of its Electoral College votes. It does not matter if the candidate wins by 51-49% or 75-25%, the winner receives the same number of Electoral College votes for that State: all of them.<ref>Maine and Nebraska are the exceptions. Both states award two Electoral College votes to the candidate with the most votes statewide and one Electoral College vote to the winning candidate in each Congressional district.</ref>
Nearly every State uses a winner-take-all system, such that the candidate who wins the popular vote in that State then receives all of its Electoral College votes. It does not matter if the candidate wins by 51-49% or 75-25%, the winner receives the same number of Electoral College votes for that State: all of them.<ref>Maine and Nebraska are the exceptions. Both states award two Electoral College votes to the candidate with the most votes statewide and one Electoral College vote to the winning candidate in each Congressional district.</ref>
Now that we know how the Electoral College votes are assigned, we can start to estimate what the likely outcomes are. Notice that the nationwide polls of which candidate has more overall support are almost irrelevant in a close election. What matters is who has more ''Electoral College'' support, and to calculate that number it requires looking at state-by-state polls.
Based on polling in States where one candidate has a substantial lead over the other, Obama will almost certainly win 237 electoral votes, compared with 191 for Romney. How many electoral votes are left? The total of 538 minus 237 minus 191, which equals 110 electoral votes that could be divided in many different ways between the candidates. Those are the electoral votes for the "swing states" in this election: Colorado, Iowa, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin. The presidential candidates, and their vice presidential running mates, are focusing their campaign efforts on those nine key States. New Jersey is not on the list (it will surely be won by Obama), so neither presidential campaign spends any time in New Jersey.
Simple arithmetic determines whether those nine States might be divided in a way that results in a perfect tie, 269 to 269, between Romney and Obama. In fact, there are five plausible ways that a perfect tie could result:<ref>http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/10/the-electoral-college-wild-card-in-a-presidential-tie/</ref>
*Obama wins Ohio, New Hampshire and Wisconsin; Romney wins Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada and Iowa.
*Obama wins Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire and Virginia; Romney wins Florida, Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.
*Obama wins Wisconsin, Colorado and Virginia; Romney wins the other six swing states.
*Obama wins North Carolina, Virginia and Hampshire; Romney wins the others.
*Obama wins Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire and Virginia; Romney wins Florida, Ohio, Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin.
Ohio is considered by many observers to be a "must win" State for Romney, without which it is nearly impossible for him to win the presidency. In the above five scenarios, in only one of the five can Romney tie Obama if Obama wins Ohio. All the scenarios depend on Romney winning Ohio.
In 2004, the margin of victory for George W. Bush in the Electoral College was only one State: Ohio. And George W. Bush won by less than 100,000 votes there, even though he won the national popular vote by a much bigger margin.
History confirms that the outcome in Ohio between Romney and Obama will decide the overall winner: in every presidential election since 1960, the winner of Ohio has won the Electoral College and the election. Ohio is the only State to side with the winner in 12 out of the 12 last presidential elections.
History confirms that the outcome in Ohio between Romney and Obama will decide the overall winner: in every presidential election since 1960, the winner of Ohio has won the Electoral College and the election. Ohio is the only State to side with the winner in 12 out of the 12 last presidential elections.
Some experts expect Obama to win the presidential election because he remains slightly ahead of Romney in most polls in Ohio.
Some experts expect Obama to win the presidential election because he remains ahead of Romney in most polls in Ohio.
== More Political Terminology ==
== More Political Terminology ==