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== Impact of Early Voting ==

== Impact of Early Voting ==

President Obama became the first president to case his vote in presidential election before Election Day, by voting on October 25.  All prior presidents voted on the official election day, which is the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November.

President Obama became the first president to cast his vote in presidential election before Election Day, by voting last week.  All prior presidents have voted on the official Election Day, which is the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November.

A prior lecture mentioned how nearly half the Nation may vote early, prior to Election Day, and some states allow far more early voting than in other states.

A prior lecture mentioned how nearly half our Nation may vote early this year, prior to Election Day, and some States allow far more early voting than in other States.

Obama voted early for a reason:  he wants to encourage other Democrats to vote early, and increase the Democrat "turnout" that way.  "Turnout" is the percentage of people who vote, among those who have the right to vote.  Turnout is often far less than 100%, as many people registered to vote do not bother to actually vote on Election Day.  By encouraging early voting, Obama was sending a strong signal to Democrat leaders in the swing states:  encourage as many other Democrats as possible to vote early, to make sure that Election Day does not pass without their voting.

Obama voted early for a special reason:  he wants to encourage other Democrats to vote early, and thereby increase the Democrat "turnout" that way.  "Turnout" is the percentage of people who vote, among those who have the right to vote.  Turnout is often far less than 100%, as many people registered to vote do not bother to actually vote on Election Day.  By encouraging early voting, Obama was sending a strong signal to Democrat leaders in the swing states:  encourage as many other Democrats as possible to vote early, to make sure that Election Day does not pass without their voting.

Early voting can result in the intimidation of people into voting, who might not otherwise vote.  In the U.S. Senate race in Nevada in 2010, buses took casino workers to polling booths during the early voting period, and those workers may have felt that they must vote, and must vote Democratic.  Early voting by mail, meanwhile, is vulnerable to party workers improperly filling out ballots for other people, and then mailing them in to be counted.

Early voting can result in the intimidation of people into voting, who might not otherwise vote.  In the U.S. Senate race in Nevada in 2010, buses took casino workers to polling booths during the early voting period, and those workers may have felt that they must vote, and must vote Democratic.  Early voting by mail, meanwhile, is vulnerable to party workers or union bosses improperly filling out ballots for other people, and then mailing them in to be counted.

In the mid-term elections in 2010, 25% of the voters in Ohio voted early -- days or weeks prior to election day, either by mail or by showing up at special polling booths.  Justifiably concerned by this trend, the Ohio legislature then passed a law to prohibit early voting during the weekend just prior to the election, except that, as the result of a muddled procedural history, military and overseas voters could vote early in-person during the three days before the election.  But Democrats, realizing how they can use early voting to their advantage by rounding up people and taking them to the polling booths over a period of many days, including the weekend before the election, sued in federal court to have the law invalidated.  The lawsuit succeeded:  the federal court invalidated the Ohio law stopping early voting the weekend prior to the election in Ohio, and the decision was affirmed on appeal.  The U.S. Supreme Court then declined the petition for it to review the issue.  As a result, early voting in Ohio, during which as many as 50% of Ohio's voters will cast ballots this election, is still in effect.<ref>For details about the legislative history that led to the changes in early voting law in Ohio that were struck down, see [http://scholar.google.com/scholar_case?case=3479941109974499934].</ref>

In the mid-term elections in 2010, 25% of the voters in Ohio voted early -- days or weeks prior to election day, either by mail or by showing up at special polling booths.  Justifiably concerned by this trend, the Ohio legislature then passed a law to prohibit early voting during the weekend just prior to the election.  (There was an exception allowing military and overseas voters to cast their ballots in-person during this time.) But Democrats, realizing how they can use early voting to their advantage by rounding up people and taking them to the polling booths over a period of many days, including the weekend before the election, sued in federal court to have the law invalidated.  The lawsuit succeeded:  the federal court invalidated the Ohio law, and the decision was affirmed on appeal.  The U.S. Supreme Court then declined the petition for it to review the issue.  As a result, expansive early voting in Ohio, during which as many as 50% of Ohio's voters will cast ballots this election, is still in effect.<ref>For details about the legislative history that led to the changes in early voting law in Ohio that were struck down, see [http://scholar.google.com/scholar_case?case=3479941109974499934].</ref>

Ten days before the election, it is possible to see which side is ahead in the early voting in the swing states, by looking at who has cast ballots.  It is not possible to see the ballots themselves, because they will not be opened and counted until Election Day.  But it is reported how many registered voters cast ballots, and which political party those registered voters are in.

It is already possible to see which side is ahead in the early voting in the swing states, by looking at who has cast ballots.  It is not possible to see the ballots themselves, because they will not be opened and counted until Election Day.  But it is reported how many registered voters cast ballots, and which political party those registered voters are in.

Obama leads in the early voting in Ohio, Nevada and Iowa, suggest that Romney will not win those States.  But Romney is doing well in the other swing states.

Obama leads in the early voting in Ohio, Nevada and Iowa, suggest that Romney will not win those States.  But Romney is doing well in the other swing states.

Perhaps because of these early voting results, Romney has scheduled a trip to Wisconsin on Monday, rather than Ohio, Nevada or Iowa.

Perhaps because of these early voting results, Romney has scheduled a campaign trip to Wisconsin -- which does not have much early voting.  Romney may have a better chance of winning States that do not have expansive early voting.

Homework question: can Romney win if he loses Ohio, Nevada and Iowa, as early voting returns suggest?

Homework question: can Romney win if he loses Ohio, Nevada and Iowa, as early voting returns suggest?