Changes

But from the ashes rose a politician who was masterful at communicating his message over television: Ronald Reagan.  A former Hollywood actor, he perfected the art of using short statements (“sound bites”) that could be easily understood in a televised broadcast.  He also looked youthful and sincere on television, and his years of experience before cameras made him a master of that media.  He rode television to the White House 1980 and a landslide reelection in 1984.

But from the ashes rose a politician who was masterful at communicating his message over television: Ronald Reagan.  A former Hollywood actor, he perfected the art of using short statements (“sound bites”) that could be easily understood in a televised broadcast.  He also looked youthful and sincere on television, and his years of experience before cameras made him a master of that media.  He rode television to the White House 1980 and a landslide reelection in 1984.

While Richard Nixon had been beaten by television in the presidential debates in 1960, Ronald Reagan delivered an unforgettable performance in the final televised presidential debate against his 1984 opponent, Walter Mondale Ronald Reagan turned every tough question, like a difficult baseball pitch, into his own home run for him and his supporters.  Asked how he could expect to serve as president at such an old age, Ronald Reagan simply joked that he would not use his opponent’s youthful inexperience against him.  Told that he more time to add to his answer, Ronald Reagan said he had nothing further to add to his quip.

While Richard Nixon had been beaten by television in the presidential debates in 1960, Ronald Reagan delivered an unforgettable performance in the final televised presidential debate against his 1984 opponent, Walter Mondale.  Ronald Reagan turned every tough question, like a difficult baseball pitch, into a home run for him and his supporters.  Asked how he could expect to serve as president at such an old age, Ronald Reagan simply joked that he would not use his opponent’s youthful inexperience against him.  Told that he more time to add to his answer, Ronald Reagan said he had nothing further to add to his quip.

Even when Ronald Reagan misjudged his time in his closing remarks, causing the moderator to interrupt him and tell him to stop, Ronald Reagan even used his gaffe in his favor.  When another president would likely have insisted on continuing to talk, Ronald Reagan politely thanked the moderator and complied with the rules.  Here was a president who was not greedy for control, and who played by the rules.

Even when Ronald Reagan misjudged his time in his closing remarks, causing the moderator to interrupt him and tell him to stop, Ronald Reagan even used his gaffe in his favor.  When another president would have likely insisted on continuing to talk, Ronald Reagan politely thanked the moderator and complied with the rules.  Here was a president who was not greedy for control, and who played by the rules.

Democrat Walter Mondale, like Richard Nixon in 1960, blamed television itself for his loss.  Walter Mondale said he never liked the television camera, and never related well to it.  In 2002, Walter Mondale was beaten again as he attempted a comeback to become senator of Minnesota.

Democrat Walter Mondale, like Richard Nixon in 1960, blamed television itself for his loss.  Walter Mondale said he never liked the television camera, and never related well to it.  In 2002, Walter Mondale was beaten again as he attempted a comeback to become a U.S. Senator from Minnesota.

== One More Data Point Before the Election ==

== One More Data Point Before the Election ==

There is one more important "data point" (piece of information) before Election Day this year:  on Friday morning the Department of Labor will announce the latest unemployment rate, which is considered the single most important influential number in a presidential election.  No incumbent president has been reelected with the unemployment rate above 7.2% since World War II; no incumbent president has lost reelection with the unemployment rate at or below 7.2% during that time.  For nearly 70 years this single number has been a perfect predictor of whether an incumbent president wins reelection.

There is one more important "data point" (piece of information) before Election Day this year:  on Friday morning the Department of Labor will announce the latest unemployment rate, which is considered the single most influential number in a presidential election.  No incumbent president has been reelected with the unemployment rate above 7.2% since World War II; no incumbent president has lost reelection with the unemployment rate at or below 7.2% during that time.  For nearly 70 years this single number has been a perfect predictor of whether an incumbent president wins reelection.

Last month the unemployment rate, as announced by the Department of Labor, was at 7.8%.  It seems unlikely that will decrease as far as 7.2% in one month.  But if it falls to 7.5% or so, then that might be enough to allow the incumbent Barack Obama to win a narrow reelection, perhaps while losing the popular vote.

Last month the unemployment rate, as announced by the Department of Labor, was at 7.8%.  It seems unlikely that will decrease as far as 7.2% in one month.  But if it falls to 7.5% or so, then that might be enough of an improvement to allow the incumbent Barack Obama to win a narrow reelection, perhaps while losing the popular vote.

== Homework ==

== Homework ==

Answer the first five questions, and then two of the remaining three, for a total of seven questions:

Answer the first five questions, and then two of the remaining three, for a total of seven questions:

1.  What system of government does the United States have?  Explain briefly.

1.  Is the United States a democracy?  Explain briefly.

<br>2.  What is your prediction for the final Electoral College votes for the presidential election this year?  Include actual numbers, and a brief discussion.

<br>2.  What is your prediction for the final Electoral College vote for the presidential election this year?  Include actual numbers (e.g., 272 for Obama to 266 for Romney) and a brief discussion.

<br>3.  Explain what "early voting" is, and include your view of it.

<br>3.  Explain what "early voting" is, and include your view of it.

<br>4.  Rank these systems in order of how democratic they are:  closed primary, caucus, open primary, and a referendum.

<br>4.  Rank these systems in order of how democratic they are:  closed primary, caucus, open primary, and a referendum.

<br>5.  If Romney loses Ohio, Nevada and Iowa, which State(s) '''''must''''' Romney win in order to win the election (assuming that Obama will almost certainly win at least 237 electoral votes" as discussed in the lecture)?  (Make sure you understand this question, and doublecheck your answer, because this question is easy to answer incorrectly.)

<br>5.  If Romney loses Ohio, Nevada and Iowa, which State(s) '''''must''''' Romney win in order to win the election (assuming that Obama will almost certainly win at least 237 electoral votes" as discussed in the lecture)?  (Make sure you understand this question, and doublecheck your answer, because this question is easy to answer incorrectly.)

<br>6.  Write and send a letter to the editor of a newspaper, and include your letter in your homework.  (One year a student, in response to a similar question, had his letter accepted for publication in the ''New York Times''.)

<br>6.  Write and send a letter to the editor of a newspaper, and include your letter in your homework.  (One year a student, in response to a similar question, had his letter accepted for publication in the ''New York Times''.) This is worth two questions.

<br>7.  Pick your favorite political term that is defined in this lecture, and explain the significance of it.

<br>7.  Pick your favorite political term that is defined in this lecture, and explain the significance of it.

<br>8.  What is your view of referenda (also called propositions or initiatives)?  Discuss.  

<br>8.  What is your view of referenda (also called propositions or initiatives)?  Discuss.