Changes

The debacle in [[Florida]] in 2000, when a few hundred votes decided who would be president, woke up many [[United States of America|Americans]] to what can happen when they do not vote.  By 2002, [[conservatives]] in Florida heard the message and reelected [[Jeb Bush]] in a surprisingly large [[landslide]].  The citizens turned out in droves to prevent a repeat of the prior election.

The debacle in [[Florida]] in 2000, when a few hundred votes decided who would be president, woke up many [[United States of America|Americans]] to what can happen when they do not vote.  By 2002, [[conservatives]] in Florida heard the message and reelected [[Jeb Bush]] in a surprisingly large [[landslide]].  The citizens turned out in droves to prevent a repeat of the prior election.

== Elections ==

== When are the Next Elections? ==

There are two major types of elections: the “[[primary]]” and the “[[general election]].” Each state holds its primary many months prior to its final or general election.  The [[primary]] chooses the nominees of the [[political parties]] who will be on the [[ballot]] in the [[general election]].

One aspect of politics that some like, while others dislike, is that it never stops.  The day after an election, the focus begins on the next election.  Most politicians never take their eye off their approval ratings or the next election.

Except for [[school board]] and special elections, the [[general election]] is always the first [[Tuesday]] after the first Monday in [[November]].  This is the day the [[president]] is elected every four [[year]]s; this is when [[congressmen]] are elected every two [[year]]s.

New Jersey and Virginia are unusual in holding major elections in odd-numbered years, so in 2013 there will be campaigns and elections in these states.  Why do New Jersey and Virginia do this?  Probably to give greater power to the political machines, keeping them influential all the time.

[[New Jersey]] and [[Virginia]] hold elections every year on this day, even odd-numbered years like 2003 and 2007, but most states only hold [[election]]s in [[even]]-numbered [[year]]s.  The theory is that [[New Jersey]] and [[Virginia]] hold yearly elections keep the [[political machine]]s working all the time.

Governor Chris Christie's stands for reelection in 2013, and the massive Democrat majority in New Jersey makes it difficult for him to win.  His opponent may be Newark mayor Corey Booker, a rising star among Democrats who may one day want to run for president himself.

To be on the [[ballot]] in [[November]], a candidate has to win his [[party]]’s nomination in the prior “[[primary]]”.  There are two types of primaries: “open” and “closed”.

Christie and Booker must first win their party's primary in June in order to qualify for the ballot in November.  There will almost certainly be other Democrats who oppose Booker for that party's nomination.  Will anyone run against Christie in his primary?

In an [[open primary]], any voter can vote in a [[party]]’s election to choose the nominee.  For example, a [[Democratic Party|Democrat]] could go to the polling booth and request a [[Republican Party|Republican]] ballot to pick the [[Republican Party|Republican]] nominee for the general election.

There will be many other state races of great importance in 2013 in New Jersey.  There will also be special elections as congressional seats open up around the Nation.  It is expected that Obama will appoint John Kerry to be the new Secretary of State after Hillary Clinton resigns, and that will create an open U.S. Senate seat from Massachusetts.  Republican Scott Brown, who lost reelection last week for his U.S. Senate seat, would then likely run to replace John Kerry.

[[New Hampshire]] has an [[open primary]] system.  Every four years, it holds the first [[president]]ial [[primary]] in the country.  It insists on being the first, in order to maximize its influence.  In the past few elections, [[Iowa]] has tried to steal this [[limelight]] by holding [[caucus]]es earlier (Jan. 19th), in which party members travel to special meetings (in frigid [[weather]]) to vote on [[candidate]]s.  Because these are typically [[party]] diehards rather than the general [[public]], this has not been as influential.  This year, top [[Democratic Party|Democratic]] contenders [[Joe Lieberman]] and [[Wesley Clark]] have announced they will skip [[Iowa]] entirely.  In 2000, [[John McCain]] also skipped it but then won the [[primary]] in [[New Hampshire]].

Already congressmen must begin thinking about their races for reelection 2014, and the race for the next presidential election in 2016 has quietly begun too.  On the Republican side, it is expected that Jeb Bush will seek and win the nomination, while Hillary Clinton seems likely to be the Democrat nominee.

 

Because [[New Hampshire]] is an open primary, [[Independent]]s can cross-over into the [[Democratic Party|Democratic]] and [[Republican Party|Republican]] primaries and pick their [[candidate]].  Many flocked to the [[Republican Party|Republican]] side in 2000 and voted for [[John McCain]], to the chagrin of the [[Republican Party]] regulars who favored [[George W. Bush]].  McCain then beat Bush in the [[Republican Party|Republican]] primary in [[New Hampshire]] by receiving a large number of [[vote]]s by citizens registered as [[Independent]]s.

 

 

[[George W. Bush]] won the [[Republican Party|Republican]] nomination in 2000 because he easily beat McCain in the closed primaries, which many states (like [[New York]]) have.  McCain was able to win after [[New Hampshire]] in a few other open primary states in the North, like Michigan, but McCain could not win closed primaries or some open primaries in the South, like South Carolina.  Bush won the nomination and the [[presidency]] despite losing the first primary in New Hampshire.

 

That is unusual.  [[New Hampshire]] has historically been a good predictor of who will win the [[White House]].  However, [[Clinton]] also won the presidency despite losing in [[New Hampshire]].  He was besieged by [[scandal]]s and beaten there by former [[Democratic Party|Democratic]] Senator [[Paul Tsongas]].  But [[Clinton]] was much stronger in the [[South]] and won big there.

 

== Homework ==

== Homework ==