Changes

One possible reason for Romney losing was how he handled the important final debate.  He intentionally appeared friendlier and more conciliatory in his attempt to win support of more women voters, and indicated that he agreed with Obama on several positions.  Obama's approval rating then improved and most people thought he won the debate, because even his sharpest critic (Romney) seemed in agreement with him.  The slight improvement in Obama's approval rating, from about 48% to 50%, may have meant the difference between Romney winning or losing.  Obama received a vote total of 50%, exactly the same as his approval rating.  Had Obama's rating stayed at 48%, then his final vote total may have been only 48%, and he may have lost.  This was an illustration of why a political candidate should not agree with the incumbent he is trying to defeat.

One possible reason for Romney losing was how he handled the important final debate.  He intentionally appeared friendlier and more conciliatory in his attempt to win support of more women voters, and indicated that he agreed with Obama on several positions.  Obama's approval rating then improved and most people thought he won the debate, because even his sharpest critic (Romney) seemed in agreement with him.  The slight improvement in Obama's approval rating, from about 48% to 50%, may have meant the difference between Romney winning or losing.  Obama received a vote total of 50%, exactly the same as his approval rating.  Had Obama's rating stayed at 48%, then his final vote total may have been only 48%, and he may have lost.  This was an illustration of why a political candidate should not agree with the incumbent he is trying to defeat.

Likewise, the effusive praise of Obama by Republican Governor Chris Christie in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, including Christie hugging Obama, had the effect of boosting Obama's approval rating, and his final vote percentage.  Indeed, New Jersey is one of the very few states in which Obama's vote total improved in 2012 over what he received in 2008, and the "coattails" of Obama's unusually large victory caused many Republicans to lose.  If even a high-ranking Republican thinks Obama is doing a great job, then who can disagree?  Perception in politics becomes reality.  Surely Christie could have found a more politically astute way of communicating with Obama, such as speaking to him by phone.  Christie's mistake illustrates how important is for a politician to think beforehand about the political consequences of everything he does.

Likewise, the effusive praise of Obama by Republican Governor Chris Christie in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, including Christie hugging Obama, had the effect of boosting Obama's approval rating, and his final vote percentage.  Indeed, New Jersey is one of the very few states in which Obama's vote total improved in 2012 over what he received in 2008, and the "coattails" of Obama's unusually large victory caused many Republicans to lose.  If even a high-ranking Republican thinks Obama is doing a great job, then who can disagree?  Perception in politics becomes reality.  Surely Christie could have found a more politically astute way of communicating with Obama, such as speaking to him by phone.  Christie's mistake illustrates how important is for a politician to think beforehand about the political consequences of everything he does.  Ironically, Christie is abrasive in dealing with nearly everyone else!

 

Some, even some Republicans, defend Governor Christie by saying that he was just doing his job, and that in a time of crisis (the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy) politics should be put aside to do what is best and right.  The counterargument to that is a citation to Orwell's famous observation:  "all issues are political issues."  Obama was surely thinking about his own political fortunes when he visited New Jersey after Hurricane Sandy, so what didn't Christie recognize the obvious political consequences of his praise for Obama?  Also, what was Christie praising Obama so much for?  Many New Jerseyans still lack power, a week after the election, and Christie have easily withheld any praise until after the power was restored and the votes were cast.  Usually praise for people is withheld until after they do a good job, not before.  Politics is as much about style and Christie's style in dealing with Obama gave him a boost in the polls.  Ironically, Christie is abrasive in dealing with nearly everyone else!

Hurricane Sandy itself may have helped Obama, regardless of what anyone said about it.  Most national crises that result from forces beyond the people's control, like a foreign invasion, will cause the approval rating of politicians in office to improve, regardless of whether they are doing a good job or not.

Hurricane Sandy itself may have helped Obama, regardless of what anyone said about it.  Most national crises that result from forces beyond the people's control, like a foreign invasion, will cause the approval rating of politicians in office to improve, regardless of whether they are doing a good job or not.

Others observe that the slick campaign slogan by Democrats, accusing Republicans of a (mythical) "War on Women," may have helped Obama win by a record 55-44% among women voters.  Romney won by a substantial percentage among men voters, but more women vote than men do.  Many women, however, dislike war, and Romney seemed more hawkish than Obama.  Also, women are most concerned by how public schools are failing, but Obama said more about education than Romney did.

Others observe that the slick campaign slogan by Democrats, accusing Republicans of a (mythical) "War on Women," may have helped Obama win by a record 55-44% among women voters.  Romney won by a substantial percentage among men voters, but more women vote than men do.  Many women, however, dislike war, and Romney seemed more hawkish than Obama.  Also, women are most concerned by how public schools are failing, but Obama said more about education than Romney did.

Ultimately there is the simple likability issue that many students in this course cited about a month ago.  Voters, particularly the youth, Hispanics and women, never liked Romney much.  Unlikable candidates usually do lose.

Ultimately there is the simple likability issue that many students in this course cited about a month ago.  Voters, particularly the youth, Hispanics and women, never liked Romney much.  Unlikable candidates usually do lose.