| | In terms of a monetary explanation, there is far more money around, due to the stimulus programs of the Federal Reserve, Treasury, and Congress. However the velocity (turnover rate) is down to the lowest rate since 1991. That is, people and business are saving and not spending. Banks are not lending. The nation’s banks in March 2009 had reserves of $679 billion, up from only $45 billion in August 2008. Individuals are keeping their cash in the banks, or paying off credit cards and debts, and not buying new merchandise. The goal of federal stimulus spending is to get consumer spending going, to create jobs and keep businesses from slowing down.<ref>[[Inflation]] can do this -- force people to deplete cash and savings with a "spend now" mentality and damn the consequences of impoverishing themselves and heirs later. Keynes said, "In the long run we're all dead". Keynes is dead, but those alive in 2008 have to live with the consequences of decades of these economic theories elevated to public policy. </ref> If people do start spending again all the extra money will cause inflation, but in that case the Federal Reserve plans to reduce the money supply and, hopefully, restore normalcy and prosperity.<ref> Mark Gongloff, “Best Check on Inflation: Broken Banks,” ’’Wall Street Journal,’’ Mar. 20, 2009</ref> | | In terms of a monetary explanation, there is far more money around, due to the stimulus programs of the Federal Reserve, Treasury, and Congress. However the velocity (turnover rate) is down to the lowest rate since 1991. That is, people and business are saving and not spending. Banks are not lending. The nation’s banks in March 2009 had reserves of $679 billion, up from only $45 billion in August 2008. Individuals are keeping their cash in the banks, or paying off credit cards and debts, and not buying new merchandise. The goal of federal stimulus spending is to get consumer spending going, to create jobs and keep businesses from slowing down.<ref>[[Inflation]] can do this -- force people to deplete cash and savings with a "spend now" mentality and damn the consequences of impoverishing themselves and heirs later. Keynes said, "In the long run we're all dead". Keynes is dead, but those alive in 2008 have to live with the consequences of decades of these economic theories elevated to public policy. </ref> If people do start spending again all the extra money will cause inflation, but in that case the Federal Reserve plans to reduce the money supply and, hopefully, restore normalcy and prosperity.<ref> Mark Gongloff, “Best Check on Inflation: Broken Banks,” ’’Wall Street Journal,’’ Mar. 20, 2009</ref> |
| | The longest economic slumps since 1945 were the 16-month downturns that ended in March 1975 and November 1982. The [[Great Depression]] lasted 43 months, from August 1929 to March 1933. | | The longest economic slumps since 1945 were the 16-month downturns that ended in March 1975 and November 1982. The [[Great Depression]] lasted 43 months, from August 1929 to March 1933. |