Changes

In [[demography]], '''demographic transition''' theory was introduced in the 1940s to provide a description and explanation of the main lines of European and American population history.<ref> Davis (1945); Kirk (1996)</ref> It is the theory that societies progress from a premodern regime of high fertility and high mortality to a postmodern regime of low fertility and low mortality. The cause of the transition has been sought in the reduction of the death rate by controlling epidemic and contagious diseases. Then, with modernization, children become more costly. Cultural changes weaken the importance of children. The increasing empowerment of women to make their own reproductive decisions leads to smaller families. Thus there is a change in values, emphasizing the quality of children rather than their quantity. In short, the fertility transition is becoming a universal phenomenon, in which every country may be placed on a continuum of progress in transition.<ref> Kirk (1996)</ref>

In [[demography]], '''demographic transition''' theory was introduced in the 1940s to provide a description and explanation of the main lines of European and American population history.<ref>Davis (1945); Kirk (1996)</ref> It is the theory that societies progress from a premodern regime of high fertility and high mortality to a postmodern regime of low fertility and low mortality. The cause of the transition has been sought in the reduction of the death rate by controlling epidemic and contagious diseases. Then, with modernization, children become more costly. Cultural changes weaken the importance of children. The increasing empowerment of women to make their own reproductive decisions leads to smaller families. Thus there is a change in values, emphasizing the quality of children rather than their quantity. In short, the fertility transition is becoming a universal phenomenon, in which every country may be placed on a continuum of progress in transition.<ref>Kirk (1996)</ref>

The demographic transition involves three stages:

The demographic transition involves three stages:

==Epidemiological transition==

==Epidemiological transition==

It is generally recognized that life expectancy has doubled in Western industrialized countries since the 19th century, despite a temporary rise in mortality in the second third of the 19th century (due primarily to dramatic urbanization rates). A more precise view of the course and causes of this dramatic rise in longevity is obtained by utilizing the concept of an epidemiological transition, analogous to the well-known demographic transition and generally divided into three stages. Quantitative assessment or morbidity and mortality trends in Germany in the 19th-20th centuries illustrates the methodology, which depends on specific consideration of causes of death, types of morbidity, age, and gender. The results indicate that reductions in infant and child morbidity and mortality were the main contributors to increased longevity, and that these reductions were until the mid-20th century due more to improvements in hygiene, nutrition, and maternal care than medical progress.<ref> Reinhard Spree, "Der Rückzug Des Todes: Der Epidemiologische Übergang in Deutschland Während Des 19. Und 20. Jahrhunderts"''Historical Social Research'' 1998 23(1-2): 4-43. Issn: 0172-6404 </ref>

It is generally recognized that life expectancy has doubled in Western industrialized countries since the 19th century, despite a temporary rise in mortality in the second third of the 19th century (due primarily to dramatic urbanization rates). A more precise view of the course and causes of this dramatic rise in longevity is obtained by utilizing the concept of an epidemiological transition, analogous to the well-known demographic transition and generally divided into three stages. Quantitative assessment or morbidity and mortality trends in Germany in the 19th-20th centuries illustrates the methodology, which depends on specific consideration of causes of death, types of morbidity, age, and gender. The results indicate that reductions in infant and child morbidity and mortality were the main contributors to increased longevity, and that these reductions were until the mid-20th century due more to improvements in hygiene, nutrition, and maternal care than medical progress.<ref>Reinhard Spree, "Der Rückzug Des Todes: Der Epidemiologische Übergang in Deutschland Während Des 19. Und 20. Jahrhunderts"''Historical Social Research'' 1998 23(1-2): 4-43. Issn: 0172-6404</ref>

==Fertility control methods and the Pill==

==Fertility control methods and the Pill==

Nevin and Oris<ref> Muriel Neven and Oris, Michel. "Controle Religieux, Controle Social: La Fecondite Dans L'est De La Belgique Dans La Seconde Moitie du XIXe Siecle," ''Annales De Démographie Historique'' 2003 (2): 5-32. Issn: 0066-2062  

Nevin and Oris<ref>Muriel Neven and Oris, Michel. "Controle Religieux, Controle Social: La Fecondite Dans L'est De La Belgique Dans La Seconde Moitie du XIXe Siecle," ''Annales De Démographie Historique'' 2003 (2): 5-32. Issn: 0066-2062  

</ref> contrast the fertility of a Catholic rural area (Pays de Herve) and a working center, secularized and with left-wing tendencies (Tilleur), paying attention both to the pre-transitional period and to the beginning of the so-called demographic transition. Located in eastern Belgium, these communities are analyzed from three points of view: their economic and social history; rates of marriage, illegitimacy, and premarital conception, measures regarded as indicators of social control and religiosity; and fertility patterns. Results indicate important contrasts: traditional social controls persisted in Pays de Herve but not in Tilleur. Yet, the beginning of the transition did not appear as a revolution. In these very different populations, fertility strategies centered on the number of desired children and on their sex composition both before and after the transition. When birth control appeared, such cultural decisionmaking was enhanced; thus the fertility decline was in keeping with the family culture and was not, at least intially, a radical change.

</ref> contrast the fertility of a Catholic rural area (Pays de Herve) and a working center, secularized and with left-wing tendencies (Tilleur), paying attention both to the pre-transitional period and to the beginning of the so-called demographic transition. Located in eastern Belgium, these communities are analyzed from three points of view: their economic and social history; rates of marriage, illegitimacy, and premarital conception, measures regarded as indicators of social control and religiosity; and fertility patterns. Results indicate important contrasts: traditional social controls persisted in Pays de Herve but not in Tilleur. Yet, the beginning of the transition did not appear as a revolution. In these very different populations, fertility strategies centered on the number of desired children and on their sex composition both before and after the transition. When birth control appeared, such cultural decisionmaking was enhanced; thus the fertility decline was in keeping with the family culture and was not, at least intially, a radical change.

===Ireland===

===Ireland===

In the 1980s and the early 1990s the Irish demographic regime converged to the European norm.  Mortality rose above the European Community average, and in 1991 Irish fertility fell to replacement level. The peculiarities of Ireland's past demography and its recent rapid changes challenge established theory. The recent changes have mirrored inward changes in society itself concerning family planning, women in the workforce, the sharply declining power of the Catholic Church, and the emigration factor. <ref> D. A. Coleman, "The Demographic Transition in Ireland in International Context." ''Proceedings of the British Academy'' 1992 79: 53-77. Issn: 0068-1202 </ref>

In the 1980s and the early 1990s the Irish demographic regime converged to the European norm.  Mortality rose above the European Community average, and in 1991 Irish fertility fell to replacement level. The peculiarities of Ireland's past demography and its recent rapid changes challenge established theory. The recent changes have mirrored inward changes in society itself concerning family planning, women in the workforce, the sharply declining power of the Catholic Church, and the emigration factor.<ref>D. A. Coleman, "The Demographic Transition in Ireland in International Context." ''Proceedings of the British Academy'' 1992 79: 53-77. Issn: 0068-1202</ref>

===France===

===France===

France displays real divergences from the standard model of Western demographic evolution. The uniqueness of the French case arises from its specific demographic history, its historic cultural values, and its internal regional dynamics. France's demographic profile is similar to its European neighbors and to developed countries in general, yet it seems to be staving off the population decline of Western countries. With 62.9 million inhabitants in 2006, it is the second most populous country in the European Union, and it displays a certain demographic dynamism thanks to a growth rate of 2.4% between 2000 and 2005, above the European average. More than two-thirds of that growth can be ascribed to a natural increase due to high fertility and birthrates. In contrast, France is one of the developed nations whose migratory balance is rather weak, which is an original feature at the European level. Several interrelated reasons account for such singularities, in particular the impact of pro-family policies accompanied by greater unmarried households and out-of-wedlock births. These general demographic trends parallel equally important changes in regional demographics. Since 1982 the same significant tendencies have occurred throughout mainland France: demographic stagnation in the least-populated rural regions and industrial regions in the northwest, with strong growth in the southwest and along the Atlantic coast, plus dynamism in metropolitan areas. Shifts in population between regions account for most of the differences in growth. The varying demographic evolution regions can be analyzed though the filter of several parameters, including residential facilities, economic growth, and urban dynamism, which yield several distinct regional profiles. The distribution of the French population therefore seems increasingly defined not only by interregional mobility but also by the residential preferences of individual households. These challenges, linked to configurations of population and the dynamics of distribution, inevitably raise the issue of town and country planning. The most recent census figures show that an outpouring of the urban population means that fewer rural areas are continuing to register a negative migratory flow - two-thirds of rural communities have shown some since 2000. The spatial demographic expansion of large cities amplifies the process of peri-urbanization yet is also accompanied by movement of selective residential flow, social selection, and sociospatial segregation based on income.<ref>Guy Baudelle and David Olivier, "Changement Global, Mondialisation et Modele De Transition Demographique: Reflexion Sur Une Exception Française Parmi Les Pays Developpes," ''Historiens et Géographes'' 2006 98(395): 177-204. Issn: 0046-757x </ref>

France displays real divergences from the standard model of Western demographic evolution. The uniqueness of the French case arises from its specific demographic history, its historic cultural values, and its internal regional dynamics. France's demographic profile is similar to its European neighbors and to developed countries in general, yet it seems to be staving off the population decline of Western countries. With 62.9 million inhabitants in 2006, it is the second most populous country in the European Union, and it displays a certain demographic dynamism thanks to a growth rate of 2.4% between 2000 and 2005, above the European average. More than two-thirds of that growth can be ascribed to a natural increase due to high fertility and birthrates. In contrast, France is one of the developed nations whose migratory balance is rather weak, which is an original feature at the European level. Several interrelated reasons account for such singularities, in particular the impact of pro-family policies accompanied by greater unmarried households and out-of-wedlock births. These general demographic trends parallel equally important changes in regional demographics. Since 1982 the same significant tendencies have occurred throughout mainland France: demographic stagnation in the least-populated rural regions and industrial regions in the northwest, with strong growth in the southwest and along the Atlantic coast, plus dynamism in metropolitan areas. Shifts in population between regions account for most of the differences in growth. The varying demographic evolution regions can be analyzed though the filter of several parameters, including residential facilities, economic growth, and urban dynamism, which yield several distinct regional profiles. The distribution of the French population therefore seems increasingly defined not only by interregional mobility but also by the residential preferences of individual households. These challenges, linked to configurations of population and the dynamics of distribution, inevitably raise the issue of town and country planning. The most recent census figures show that an outpouring of the urban population means that fewer rural areas are continuing to register a negative migratory flow - two-thirds of rural communities have shown some since 2000. The spatial demographic expansion of large cities amplifies the process of peri-urbanization yet is also accompanied by movement of selective residential flow, social selection, and sociospatial segregation based on income.<ref>Guy Baudelle and David Olivier, "Changement Global, Mondialisation et Modele De Transition Demographique: Reflexion Sur Une Exception Française Parmi Les Pays Developpes," ''Historiens et Géographes'' 2006 98(395): 177-204. Issn: 0046-757x</ref>

===Asia===

===Asia===

McNicoll (2006) examines the common features behind the striking changes in health and fertility in East and Southeast Asia in the 1960s-1990s, focusing on seven countries: Taiwan and South Korea ("tiger" economies), Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia ("second wave" countries), and China and Vietnam ("market-Leninist" economies). Demographic change can be seen as a byproduct of social and economic development together with, in some cases, strong governmental pressures. The transition sequence entailed the establishment of an effective, typically authoritarian, system of local administration, providing a framework for promotion and service delivery in health, education, and family planning. Subsequent economic liberalization offered new opportunities for upward mobility - and greater risks of backsliding - but these opportunities were accompanied by the erosion of social capital and the breakdown or privatization of service programs.

McNicoll (2006) examines the common features behind the striking changes in health and fertility in East and Southeast Asia in the 1960s-1990s, focusing on seven countries: Taiwan and South Korea ("tiger" economies), Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia ("second wave" countries), and China and Vietnam ("market-Leninist" economies). Demographic change can be seen as a byproduct of social and economic development together with, in some cases, strong governmental pressures. The transition sequence entailed the establishment of an effective, typically authoritarian, system of local administration, providing a framework for promotion and service delivery in health, education, and family planning. Subsequent economic liberalization offered new opportunities for upward mobility - and greater risks of backsliding - but these opportunities were accompanied by the erosion of social capital and the breakdown or privatization of service programs.

====Korea====

====Korea====

Cha (2007) analyzes a panel dataset to explore how industrial revolution, demographic transition, and human capital accumulation interacted in Korea from 1916-38. Income growth and public investment in health caused mortality to fall, which suppressed fertility and promoted education. Industrialization, skill premium, and closing gender wage gap further induced parents to opt for child quality. Expanding demand for education was accommodated by an active public school building program. The interwar agricultural depression aggravated traditional income inequality, raising fertility and impeding the spread of mass schooling. Landlordism collapsed in the wake of de-colonization, and the consequent reduction in inequality accelerated human and physical capital accumulation, hence growth in South Korea.<ref> Myung Soo Cha,  "Industrial Revolution, Demographic Transition, and Human Capital Accumulation in Korea, 1916-38." Naksungdae Institute of Economic Research Working Paper 2007-7. online at [http://www.naksung.re.kr/papers/wp2007-7.pdf]</ref>

Cha (2007) analyzes a panel dataset to explore how industrial revolution, demographic transition, and human capital accumulation interacted in Korea from 1916-38. Income growth and public investment in health caused mortality to fall, which suppressed fertility and promoted education. Industrialization, skill premium, and closing gender wage gap further induced parents to opt for child quality. Expanding demand for education was accommodated by an active public school building program. The interwar agricultural depression aggravated traditional income inequality, raising fertility and impeding the spread of mass schooling. Landlordism collapsed in the wake of de-colonization, and the consequent reduction in inequality accelerated human and physical capital accumulation, hence growth in South Korea.<ref>Myung Soo Cha,  "Industrial Revolution, Demographic Transition, and Human Capital Accumulation in Korea, 1916-38." Naksungdae Institute of Economic Research Working Paper 2007-7. online at [http://www.naksung.re.kr/papers/wp2007-7.pdf]</ref>

===Africa===

===Africa===

Campbell has studied the demography of 19th-century Madagascar in the light of demographic transition theory. Both supporters and critics of the theory hold to an intrinsic opposition between human and "natural" factors, such as climate, famine, and disease, influencing demography. They also suppose a sharp chronological divide between the precolonial and colonial eras, arguing that whereas "natural" demographic influences were of greater importance in the former period, human factors predominated thereafter. Campbell argues that in 19th-century Madagascar the human factor, in the form of the Merina state, was the predominant demographic influence. However, the impact of the state was felt through natural forces, and it varied over time. In the late 18th and early 19th centuries Merina state policies stimulated agricultural production, which helped to create a larger and healthier population and laid the foundation for Merina military and economic expansion within Madagascar. From 1820, the cost of such expansionism led the state to increase its exploitation of forced labor at the expense of agricultural production and thus transformed it into a negative demographic force. Infertility and infant mortality, which were probably more significant influences on overall population levels than the adult mortality rate, increased from 1820 due to disease, malnutrition, and stress, all of which stemmed from state forced labor policies. Available estimates indicate little if any population growth for Madagascar between 1820 and 1895. The demographic "crisis" in Africa, ascribed by critics of the demographic transition theory to the colonial era, stemmed in Madagascar from the policies of the imperial Merina regime, which in this sense formed a link to the French regime of the colonial era. Campbell thus questions the underlying assumptions governing the debate about historical demography in Africa and suggests that the demographic impact of political forces be reevaluated in terms of their changing interaction with "natural" demographic influences.<ref> Gwyn Campbell, "State and Pre-colonial Demographic History: the Case of Nineteenth-century Madagascar." ''Journal of African History'' 1991 32(3): 415-445. Issn: 0021-8537 Fulltext: in Jstor </ref>

Campbell has studied the demography of 19th-century Madagascar in the light of demographic transition theory. Both supporters and critics of the theory hold to an intrinsic opposition between human and "natural" factors, such as climate, famine, and disease, influencing demography. They also suppose a sharp chronological divide between the precolonial and colonial eras, arguing that whereas "natural" demographic influences were of greater importance in the former period, human factors predominated thereafter. Campbell argues that in 19th-century Madagascar the human factor, in the form of the Merina state, was the predominant demographic influence. However, the impact of the state was felt through natural forces, and it varied over time. In the late 18th and early 19th centuries Merina state policies stimulated agricultural production, which helped to create a larger and healthier population and laid the foundation for Merina military and economic expansion within Madagascar. From 1820, the cost of such expansionism led the state to increase its exploitation of forced labor at the expense of agricultural production and thus transformed it into a negative demographic force. Infertility and infant mortality, which were probably more significant influences on overall population levels than the adult mortality rate, increased from 1820 due to disease, malnutrition, and stress, all of which stemmed from state forced labor policies. Available estimates indicate little if any population growth for Madagascar between 1820 and 1895. The demographic "crisis" in Africa, ascribed by critics of the demographic transition theory to the colonial era, stemmed in Madagascar from the policies of the imperial Merina regime, which in this sense formed a link to the French regime of the colonial era. Campbell thus questions the underlying assumptions governing the debate about historical demography in Africa and suggests that the demographic impact of political forces be reevaluated in terms of their changing interaction with "natural" demographic influences.<ref>Gwyn Campbell, "State and Pre-colonial Demographic History: the Case of Nineteenth-century Madagascar." ''Journal of African History'' 1991 32(3): 415-445. Issn: 0021-8537 Fulltext: in Jstor</ref>

===Russia===

===Russia===

* McNicoll, Geoffrey. "Policy Lessons of the East Asian Demographic Transition." ''Population and Development Review'' 2006 32(1): 1-25. Issn: 0098-7921  

* McNicoll, Geoffrey. "Policy Lessons of the East Asian Demographic Transition." ''Population and Development Review'' 2006 32(1): 1-25. Issn: 0098-7921  

* Saito, Oasamu. "Historical Demography: Achievements and Prospects."  ''Population Studies'' 1996 50(3): 537-553. Issn: 0032-4728 [http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0032-4728%28199611%2950%3A3%3C537%3AHDAAP%3E2.0.CO%3B2-F in Jstor]  

* Saito, Oasamu. "Historical Demography: Achievements and Prospects."  ''Population Studies'' 1996 50(3): 537-553. Issn: 0032-4728 [http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0032-4728%28199611%2950%3A3%3C537%3AHDAAP%3E2.0.CO%3B2-F in Jstor]  

* Szreter, Simon. "The Idea of Demographic Transition and the Study of Fertility: A Critical Intellectual History." ''Population and Development Review,'' 1993. 19:4, pp 659-701. [http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0098-7921%28199312%2919%3A4%3C659%3ATIODTA%3E2.0.CO%3B2-P&size=LARGE&origin=JSTOR-enlargePage in JSTOR]

* Szreter, Simon. "The Idea of Demographic Transition and the Study of Fertility: A Critical Intellectual History." ''Population and Development Review,'' 1993. 19:4, pp 659–701. [http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0098-7921%28199312%2919%3A4%3C659%3ATIODTA%3E2.0.CO%3B2-P&size=LARGE&origin=JSTOR-enlargePage in JSTOR]

* Szreter, Simon; Nye, Robert A.; and Poppel, Frans Van. "Fertility and Contraception During the Demographic Transition: Qualitative and Quantitative Approaches." ''Journal of Interdisciplinary History'' 2003 34(2): 141-154. Issn: 0022-1953 Fulltext: in Project Muse and Ebsco

* Szreter, Simon; Nye, Robert A.; and Poppel, Frans Van. "Fertility and Contraception During the Demographic Transition: Qualitative and Quantitative Approaches." ''Journal of Interdisciplinary History'' 2003 34(2): 141-154. Issn: 0022-1953 Fulltext: in Project Muse and Ebsco

==See also==

==See also==