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Acceleration of 21st century desecularization (view source)
Revision as of 16:51, February 12, 2017
, 16:51, February 12, 2017→Growth of underlying factors related to desecularization
Such a small change is within the margin of error in surveys but if it is to be believed it shows a decade long decline in Christianity has levelled off.<ref>[http://www.premier.org.uk/News/UK/Decline-in-UK-Christianity-halts Decline in UK Christianity 'halts'], Prremier</ref>}}
Such a small change is within the margin of error in surveys but if it is to be believed it shows a decade long decline in Christianity has levelled off.<ref>[http://www.premier.org.uk/News/UK/Decline-in-UK-Christianity-halts Decline in UK Christianity 'halts'], Prremier</ref>}}
== United States, irreligion vs. religion, demographics and desecularization ==
''See also:'' [[United States, irreligion vs. religion and demographics ]]
[[Demography]]
Professor [[Eric Kaufmann]], Birkbeck College, University of London, specializes on how demographics affects religion/irreligion/politics.
Steve Turley wrote:
{{Cquote|According to a recent a demographic study by University of London Professor Eric Kaufmann, there is a significant demographic deficit between secularists and conservative religionists. For example, in the U.S., while self-identified secular women averaged only 1.5 children per couple in 2002, conservative evangelical women averaged 2 to 3 children per couple, which amounts to a 28 percent fertility advantage. Now Kaufmann notices that this demographic deficit has dramatic effects over time. In a population evenly divided, these numbers indicate that conservative evangelicals would increase from 50 to 62.5 percent of the population in a single generation. In two generations, their number would increase to 73.5 percent, and over the course of 200 years, they would represent 99.4 percent.
Kaufmann noticed further that the more religiously conservative, the more children. For example, the Amish double in population every twenty years, and are projected to number over a million in the U.S. and Canada in just a few decades. We're seeing a similar trend among Mormons, who have averaged a 40 percent growth per decade, which means that by the end of the century, there will be as many as 300 million Mormons in the world, or six percent of the world's population. And note: Mormons vote overwhelmingly Republican.
Now in stark contrast to all of this, Kaufmann's data projects that secularists consistently exemplify a low fertility rate of around 1.5 percent per couple, which is significantly below the replacement level of 2.1 percent. And so he sees a steady decline of secular populations after 2030 or 2050 to potentially no more than a mere 14 to 15 percent of the American population. He notices that similar projections apply to Europe as well.<ref>[http://www.christianpost.com/news/feminist-futility-why-the-womens-march-promises-a-conservative-future-173350/ Feminist Futility: Why the Women's March Promises a Conservative Future] by Steve Turley, ''Christian Post''</ref>}}
In 2012, Kaufmann wrote:
{{Cquote| In the United States, they manage 1.5, considerably lower than the national 2.1. This disadvantage is not enough to prevent religious decline in much of Europe and America today, but secularism must run to stand still. Since the history of religious decline in Europe suggests that secularization rates tend to drop over time, this portends the end of secularization. Projections I recently published with Skirbekk and Goujon in the journal Sociology of Religion show secularism losing momentum and beginning to decline in both Europe and America by 2050, largely because of low fertility and religious immigration.<ref>[http://www.aei.org/publication/the-future-will-be-more-religious-and-conservative-than-you-think/ The Future Will Be More Religious and Conservative Than You Think] by Eric Kaufmann, American Enterprise Institute</ref>}}
== Growth of underlying factors related to desecularization ==
== Growth of underlying factors related to desecularization ==