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'''Trump third party''' refers to the possibility that [[Donald Trump]] will run as a third-party candidate in the [[2016 presidential election]].

'''Trump third party''' referred to the possibility that [[Donald Trump]] would run as a third-party candidate in the [[2016 presidential election]].

The [[Fox News Channel]] opposes this and made it the first issue of the [[2016 presidential debate]].  But in 1980, it was a third-party candidacy by fellow [[Republican]] [[John Anderson]] which helped elect the [[conservative]] [[Ronald Reagan]].  Also, the third-party candidacies of [[Ralph Nader]] and [[Pat Buchanan]] helped elect [[George W. Bush]] in 2000, and the third-party candidacy of [[George Wallace]] in 1968 helped elect [[Richard Nixon]].  Indeed, the last 60 years suggest that is more likely for a non-incumbent Republican to win the presidency when there is a third-party candidacy, than when there is not.

The [[Fox News Channel]] opposes this and made it the first issue of the [[2016 presidential debate]].  But in 1980, it was a third-party candidacy by fellow [[Republican]] [[John Anderson]] which helped elect the [[conservative]] [[Ronald Reagan]].  Also, the third-party candidacies of [[Ralph Nader]] and [[Pat Buchanan]] helped elect [[George W. Bush]] in 2000, and the third-party candidacy of [[George Wallace]] in 1968 helped elect [[Richard Nixon]].  Indeed, the last 60 years suggest that is more likely for a non-incumbent Republican to win the presidency when there is a third-party candidacy, than when there is not.

== Historical examples ==

== Historical examples ==

The example often cited by Republicans for a third-party candidate "spoiling" the chances of a Republican to win the presidency was Ross Perot's candidacy in 1992.  But an analysis of the polling data and Republican George H.W. Bush's approval rating (an unelectable 33%) demonstrates that the Ross Perot candidacy did not spoil Bush's chances of winning, and actually helped narrow the gap between him and Clinton.<ref>http://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/01/14/824800/-History-Perot-was-NOT-a-Spoiler-in-1992-or-1996#</ref>  More people who had voted for Ross Perot in 1992 drifted to Clinton in 1996, rather than to the Republican [[Bob Dole]], which reinforces the view that Ross Perot pulled at least as many voters away from Clinton in 1992 as from George H.W. Bush.

The example often cited by Republicans for a third-party candidate "spoiling" the chances of a Republican to win the presidency was Ross Perot's candidacy in 1992.  But an analysis of the polling data and Republican George H.W. Bush's approval rating (an unelectable 33%) demonstrates that the Ross Perot candidacy did not spoil Bush's chances of winning, and actually helped narrow the gap between him and Clinton.<ref>http://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/01/14/824800/-History-Perot-was-NOT-a-Spoiler-in-1992-or-1996#</ref>  More people who had voted for Ross Perot in 1992 drifted to Clinton in 1996, rather than to the Republican [[Bob Dole]], which reinforces the view that Ross Perot pulled at least as many voters away from Clinton in 1992 as from George H.W. Bush.

== Effect on the Media ==

== Effect on the Media ==

In 2008 and 2012, in the absence of third-party candidacies, the [[liberal media]] were able to tee off against the [[Republican Party]] candidate in an unrelenting style.  But when there is a significant third-party candidacy, as in 1968, 1980, and 2000, the media have a more difficult time being influential with its [[liberal bias]].

In 2008 and 2012, in the absence of third-party candidacies, the [[liberal media]] were able to tee off against the [[Republican Party]] candidate in an unrelenting style.  But when there is a significant third-party candidacy, as in 1968, 1980, and 2000, the media have a more difficult time being influential with its [[liberal bias]].

== Effect on Debates ==

== Effect on Debates ==

The moderators and format for presidential debates tend to favor the [[Dems]].  As a result, Republicans tend to lose the presidential debates, with a few exceptions, dating back to 1960.  In 1968 and 1972, Richard Nixon wisely refused to participate in the debates.

The moderators and format for presidential debates tend to favor the [[Dems]].  As a result, Republicans tend to lose the presidential debates, with a few exceptions, dating back to 1960.  In 1968 and 1972, Richard Nixon wisely refused to participate in the debates.

== Effect on Swing States ==

== Effect on Swing States ==

 

Historically, the swing states have been Florida, Ohio, Nevada, North Carolina, and Virginia.

Historically, the swing states have been Florida, Ohio, Nevada, North Carolina and Virginia.

== Trump quotes about 3rd Party candidacy ==

== Trump quotes about 3rd Party candidacy ==

*Pressed on whether he would run as a third-party candidate if he fails to clinch the GOP nomination, Trump said that ''“so many people want me to, if I don’t win.” “I’ll have to see how I’m being treated by the Republicans,”'' Trump said. ''“Absolutely, if they’re [Republican National Committee] not fair , that would be a factor.”'' <ref>[http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/248910-exclusive-trump-threatens-third-party-run Exclusive: Trump threatens third-party run, TheHill, July 23, 2015]</ref>

*Pressed on whether he would run as a third-party candidate if he fails to clinch the GOP nomination, Trump said that ''“so many people want me to, if I don’t win.” “I’ll have to see how I’m being treated by the Republicans,”'' Trump said. ''“Absolutely, if they’re [Republican National Committee] not fair , that would be a factor.”'' <ref>[http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/248910-exclusive-trump-threatens-third-party-run Exclusive: Trump threatens third-party run, TheHill, July 23, 2015]</ref>

[[Category:2016 presidential election]]

[[Category:2016 presidential election]]

[[Category:2016 presidential debates]]

[[Category:2016 presidential debates]]