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United States Presidential Election, 2008 (view source)
Revision as of 12:52, May 10, 2007
, 12:52, May 10, 2007iw.
The '''2008 United States Presidential Election''' is scheduled for Tuesday, November 4, 2008.<ref>http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2008/calendar/</ref> The primary season for both the [[Republican Party]] and the [[Democratic Party]] officialy begins on January 14, 2008 with the [[Iowa Caucuses]] and (as of March 16, 2007) ends on March 4, 2008.<ref>http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2008/calendar/</ref> The 2008 election cycle has seen a major shift to the primary election calendar, frontloading many primaries into early February.<ref>http://www.miamiherald.com/515/story/43160.html</ref>
== Battleground States ==
The United States has become so regionally polarized that even though the 2004 presidential election was close nationwide, only nine states had outcomes having less than 4% margin between the candidates:
State, margin of victory (party that won the state in 2004)
#Wisconsin, 0.38% (Dem)
#Iowa, 0.67% (Repub)
#New Mexico, 0.79% (Repub)
#New Hampshire, 1.37% (Dem)
#Ohio, 2.11% (Repub)
#Pennsylvania, 2.50% (Dem)
#Nevada, 2.59% (Repub)
#Michigan, 3.42% (Dem)
#Minnesota, 3.48% (Dem)
The 2006 election landslide losses for Republicans in the northeast and northeastern Midwest, including Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania, indicate that the outcome in the northeastern states and the northeast Midwestern states is no longer contestable. So New Hampshire, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania can be removed from the list. That leaves only five states in play in 2008:
#Wisconsin, 0.38% (Dem) (10 electoral votes)
#Iowa, 0.67% (Repub) (7 electoral votes)
#New Mexico, 0.79% (Repub) (5 electoral votes)
#Nevada, 2.59% (Repub) (5 electoral votes)
#Minnesota, 3.48% (Dem) (10 electoral votes)
If the same party wins these states as in 2004, then the Democrats would win the electoral college by 272-266.
== Republican Strategy ==
The Republican presidential nominee must win Wisconsin or Minnesota, and hold Iowa. The outcome in New Mexico, which has only 5 electoral votes, is irrelevant. Minnesota's margin of victory for the Democrats in 2004 probably places it out of reach for Republicans in 2008.
The inescapable conclusion is that the Republican nominee must win Wisconsin and hold Iowa in order to win the general election.
===Declared Republican Party Candidates===
Senator [[Sam Brownback]], [[Kansas]]
[[John H. Cox]]
Former Governor [[Jim Gilmore]], [[Virginia]]
Former Mayor [[Rudy Giuliani|Rudolph Giuliani]], [[New York City]]
Former Governor [[Mike Huckabee]], [[Arkansas]]
Representative [[Duncan Hunter]], [[California]] 52nd
Senator [[John McCain]], [[Arizona]]
Representative [[Ron Paul]], [[Texas]] 14th
Former Governor [[Mitt Romney]], [[Massachusetts]]
[[Michael Charles Smith]]
Representative [[Tom Tancredo]], [[Colorado]] 6th
Former Governor and HHS Secretary [[Tommy Thompson]], [[Wisconsin]]
===Republican Party Members with Presidential Exploratory Committees===
Former Senator [[Fred Thompson]], [[Tennessee]]
== Democratic Strategy ==
As usual, the best strategy for Democrats is a hot topic for debate among members of that party and independent [[pundits]]. [[Daily Kos]] can occasionally provide arguments on the strategy that should be pursued by Democrats, although most posts there are simply rants against the Republicans or Democrats deemed insufficiently [[liberal]], which led [[Barack Obama]] to say in 2006 that he found the site "predictable." A majority of Democrats are confident that the cratering popularity of [[President]] [[George W. Bush]] and particularly [[Operation Iraqi Freedom]] puts them in a highly favorable position for 2008, to the extent it may even be their [[race]] to lose.
However, evaluating the race in Electoral College terms forces caution upon the Democrats. Between the [[Presidential election of 2000]] and the [[Presidential election of 2004]], only three states budged from one party to the other: New Mexico (from Democratic to Republican), Iowa (from Democratic to Republican) and New Hampshire (from Republican to Democratic). The American people would seem to be not only strongly divided, but in the vast majority of states, faithful over a period of years to their chosen parties. Not even the [[September 11, 2001 attacks]] could persuade the people of New York to vote Republican, for example, and it is highly unlikely that the depopulation of [[New Orleans]] will be considered a good reason for the majority of voters in Louisiana to become Democrats. The phrase [[Second Coming Republicans]] (or Democrats) takes on new meaning in light of the relative lack of party-switching in response to these events.
Had all three of the above [[swing states]] voted Democratic in 2000, [[Al Gore]] would be President today, so this is the result Democrats should especially aim for. This does not necessarily mean they can let their guard down in the states that voted their way in both of the last two elections -- particularly if the Republicans nominate [[Rudy Giuliani]], [[Mitt Romney]], or another candidate associated with one of those states.
Evaluating the race by historic analogy, the last Senator elected President and the last Northern Democrat elected President were the same person: [[John F. Kennedy]], in the [[Presidential election of 1960]]. If this pattern continues to hold true this cycle, the candidate best positioned this year is [[Bill Richardson]], who is cast somewhat against type as a member of the [[National Rifle Association]] and also has the distinction of being from one of the three [[swing states]] cited above. In strong second place would probably be [[John Edwards]], but it needs to be said that the Democrat who can carry Edwards' home state of [[North Carolina]] in a Presidential election probably hasn't been born yet. [[Lyndon B. Johnson]] was the last person to do so, just after writing off most of the South for the Democratic Party by passing the [[1964 Civil Rights Act]]. Still, the Democrats, as pointed out above, feel for the most part that this is their race to lose and may "let it all hang out" in the belief that any of their first-tier candidates (though probably not Gravel or Kucinich) will handily defeat a [[generic]] Republican candidate.
===Declared Democratic Party Candidates===
Senator [[Joe Biden]], [[Delaware]]
Senator [[Hillary Clinton]], [[New York]]
Senator [[Chris Dodd]], [[Connecticut]]
Former Senator [[John Edwards]], [[North Carolina]]
Former Senator [[Mike Gravel]], [[Alaska]]
Representative [[Dennis Kucinich]], [[Ohio]] 10th
Senator [[Barack Obama]], [[Illinois]]
Governor [[Bill Richardson]], [[New Mexico]]
== References ==
<references/>
== Battleground States ==
The United States has become so regionally polarized that even though the 2004 presidential election was close nationwide, only nine states had outcomes having less than 4% margin between the candidates:
State, margin of victory (party that won the state in 2004)
#Wisconsin, 0.38% (Dem)
#Iowa, 0.67% (Repub)
#New Mexico, 0.79% (Repub)
#New Hampshire, 1.37% (Dem)
#Ohio, 2.11% (Repub)
#Pennsylvania, 2.50% (Dem)
#Nevada, 2.59% (Repub)
#Michigan, 3.42% (Dem)
#Minnesota, 3.48% (Dem)
The 2006 election landslide losses for Republicans in the northeast and northeastern Midwest, including Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania, indicate that the outcome in the northeastern states and the northeast Midwestern states is no longer contestable. So New Hampshire, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania can be removed from the list. That leaves only five states in play in 2008:
#Wisconsin, 0.38% (Dem) (10 electoral votes)
#Iowa, 0.67% (Repub) (7 electoral votes)
#New Mexico, 0.79% (Repub) (5 electoral votes)
#Nevada, 2.59% (Repub) (5 electoral votes)
#Minnesota, 3.48% (Dem) (10 electoral votes)
If the same party wins these states as in 2004, then the Democrats would win the electoral college by 272-266.
== Republican Strategy ==
The Republican presidential nominee must win Wisconsin or Minnesota, and hold Iowa. The outcome in New Mexico, which has only 5 electoral votes, is irrelevant. Minnesota's margin of victory for the Democrats in 2004 probably places it out of reach for Republicans in 2008.
The inescapable conclusion is that the Republican nominee must win Wisconsin and hold Iowa in order to win the general election.
===Declared Republican Party Candidates===
Senator [[Sam Brownback]], [[Kansas]]
[[John H. Cox]]
Former Governor [[Jim Gilmore]], [[Virginia]]
Former Mayor [[Rudy Giuliani|Rudolph Giuliani]], [[New York City]]
Former Governor [[Mike Huckabee]], [[Arkansas]]
Representative [[Duncan Hunter]], [[California]] 52nd
Senator [[John McCain]], [[Arizona]]
Representative [[Ron Paul]], [[Texas]] 14th
Former Governor [[Mitt Romney]], [[Massachusetts]]
[[Michael Charles Smith]]
Representative [[Tom Tancredo]], [[Colorado]] 6th
Former Governor and HHS Secretary [[Tommy Thompson]], [[Wisconsin]]
===Republican Party Members with Presidential Exploratory Committees===
Former Senator [[Fred Thompson]], [[Tennessee]]
== Democratic Strategy ==
As usual, the best strategy for Democrats is a hot topic for debate among members of that party and independent [[pundits]]. [[Daily Kos]] can occasionally provide arguments on the strategy that should be pursued by Democrats, although most posts there are simply rants against the Republicans or Democrats deemed insufficiently [[liberal]], which led [[Barack Obama]] to say in 2006 that he found the site "predictable." A majority of Democrats are confident that the cratering popularity of [[President]] [[George W. Bush]] and particularly [[Operation Iraqi Freedom]] puts them in a highly favorable position for 2008, to the extent it may even be their [[race]] to lose.
However, evaluating the race in Electoral College terms forces caution upon the Democrats. Between the [[Presidential election of 2000]] and the [[Presidential election of 2004]], only three states budged from one party to the other: New Mexico (from Democratic to Republican), Iowa (from Democratic to Republican) and New Hampshire (from Republican to Democratic). The American people would seem to be not only strongly divided, but in the vast majority of states, faithful over a period of years to their chosen parties. Not even the [[September 11, 2001 attacks]] could persuade the people of New York to vote Republican, for example, and it is highly unlikely that the depopulation of [[New Orleans]] will be considered a good reason for the majority of voters in Louisiana to become Democrats. The phrase [[Second Coming Republicans]] (or Democrats) takes on new meaning in light of the relative lack of party-switching in response to these events.
Had all three of the above [[swing states]] voted Democratic in 2000, [[Al Gore]] would be President today, so this is the result Democrats should especially aim for. This does not necessarily mean they can let their guard down in the states that voted their way in both of the last two elections -- particularly if the Republicans nominate [[Rudy Giuliani]], [[Mitt Romney]], or another candidate associated with one of those states.
Evaluating the race by historic analogy, the last Senator elected President and the last Northern Democrat elected President were the same person: [[John F. Kennedy]], in the [[Presidential election of 1960]]. If this pattern continues to hold true this cycle, the candidate best positioned this year is [[Bill Richardson]], who is cast somewhat against type as a member of the [[National Rifle Association]] and also has the distinction of being from one of the three [[swing states]] cited above. In strong second place would probably be [[John Edwards]], but it needs to be said that the Democrat who can carry Edwards' home state of [[North Carolina]] in a Presidential election probably hasn't been born yet. [[Lyndon B. Johnson]] was the last person to do so, just after writing off most of the South for the Democratic Party by passing the [[1964 Civil Rights Act]]. Still, the Democrats, as pointed out above, feel for the most part that this is their race to lose and may "let it all hang out" in the belief that any of their first-tier candidates (though probably not Gravel or Kucinich) will handily defeat a [[generic]] Republican candidate.
===Declared Democratic Party Candidates===
Senator [[Joe Biden]], [[Delaware]]
Senator [[Hillary Clinton]], [[New York]]
Senator [[Chris Dodd]], [[Connecticut]]
Former Senator [[John Edwards]], [[North Carolina]]
Former Senator [[Mike Gravel]], [[Alaska]]
Representative [[Dennis Kucinich]], [[Ohio]] 10th
Senator [[Barack Obama]], [[Illinois]]
Governor [[Bill Richardson]], [[New Mexico]]
== References ==
<references/>