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→United States
As the pandemic spread to the United States and criticism of the CCP grew, China again threatened to leverage its dominant position in the production of essential medical supplies to cut off Americans from vital equipment.
As the pandemic spread to the United States and criticism of the CCP grew, China again threatened to leverage its dominant position in the production of essential medical supplies to cut off Americans from vital equipment.
===CDC projections===
The CDC modeled four scenarios of the spread of the disease in a presentation in February. The worst case was 1.7 million deaths. The best was 200,000. Other infectious disease experts weren’t as optimistic:
:Dr. Lawler recently presented his own “best guess” projections to American hospital and health system executives at a private webinar convened by the American Hospital Association. He estimated that some 96 million people in the United States would be infected. Five out of every hundred would need hospitalization, which would mean close to five million hospital admissions, nearly two million of those patients requiring intensive care and about half of those needing the support of ventilators.
:Dr. Lawler’s calculations suggested 480,000 deaths, which he said was conservative. By contrast, about 20,000 to 50,000 people have died from flu-related illnesses this season, according to the C.D.C. Unlike with seasonal influenza, the entire population is thought to be susceptible to the new coronavirus.<ref>http://archive.is/QzLH5</ref>
FiveThirtyEight looked at projections by 17 different experts and calculated the best estimate among them to be 246,000 deaths, which is up from last week. The range is enormous, from 36,000 dead to 1.1 million, but 14 of the 17 have a high-end estimate of at least 250,000.
'''IHME projections'''
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) has also posted projections based on the latest numbers. They’re expecting 86,000+ deaths in the next four months, with the U.S. to reach 10,000 sometime around April 5-6, 20,000 within a week after that, and 50,000 around April 24-25. If they’re correct, we’ll start the month on Wednesday with a bit less than 5,000 people dead of COVID-19 and end it with nearly 60,000 deceased. In a worst-case scenario, we could be approaching 100,000 dead — in one month.
Deaths will begin to slow in May thanks to the social distancing practices being followed now (and maybe because of warmer weather) but if the projection is right, we’re about to see roughly as many Americans die of this illness in the four to five weeks as died in the Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan wars combined.<ref>https://hotair.com/archives/allahpundit/2020/03/30/birx-100-200000-dead-best-case-scenario-almost-perfect-social-distancing/</ref>
===Response===
===Response===