Block, SkipCaptcha, Upload, Automoderated users, edit, Moderators
3,070
edits
Changes
Jump to navigation
Jump to search
Line 42:
Line 42: + + + +
→Post your message below
Hi again LT. Have you any thoughts or data on how we can estimate likely numbers of the electorate in each state? Last time it was close to 140 Million, this time they say it'll be over 155 million nationwide. I'll finish filling in some of the college votes for states in some time. Since most are winner take all, that's relatively easier to project, at least in states where there is a clear majority. [[User:NishantXavier|NishantXavier]]<sup>[[User talk:NishantXavier|For Christ the King]]</sup> 12:38, 16 May 2020 (EDT)
Hi again LT. Have you any thoughts or data on how we can estimate likely numbers of the electorate in each state? Last time it was close to 140 Million, this time they say it'll be over 155 million nationwide. I'll finish filling in some of the college votes for states in some time. Since most are winner take all, that's relatively easier to project, at least in states where there is a clear majority. [[User:NishantXavier|NishantXavier]]<sup>[[User talk:NishantXavier|For Christ the King]]</sup> 12:38, 16 May 2020 (EDT)
:Unfortunately, I dunno much about estimating the hard numbers. I'm not entirely sure where to gather the data on voter registration, and I tend to focus more on the general likeliness of certain states to vote either [[Republican]] or [[Democrat]] based on the incumbent officeholders, their popularity, enthusiasm, etc, their opponent(s), as well as trends and polling. --[[User:Liberaltears|Liberaltears]]<sup>'''''[[User:Liberaltears/mail|Just say no to quid pro joe!]] | [[Special:Contributions/Liberaltears|Free Roger Stone!]]'''''</sup> 13:43, 16 May 2020 (EDT)
:Unfortunately, I dunno much about estimating the hard numbers. I'm not entirely sure where to gather the data on voter registration, and I tend to focus more on the general likeliness of certain states to vote either [[Republican]] or [[Democrat]] based on the incumbent officeholders, their popularity, enthusiasm, etc, their opponent(s), as well as trends and polling. --[[User:Liberaltears|Liberaltears]]<sup>'''''[[User:Liberaltears/mail|Just say no to quid pro joe!]] | [[Special:Contributions/Liberaltears|Free Roger Stone!]]'''''</sup> 13:43, 16 May 2020 (EDT)
No worries. I'm sure we'll get there in the end. We have 5 1/2 months to spur interest and hopefully have an impact on voter turnout. I think turnout will be key for Repbulicans this time. I'll be adding a bit more to the article from time to time. This is a liberal site, but it mentions the likely increase in turnout in 2020: https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/06/2020-election-voter-turnout-could-be-record-breaking/591607/ Some 10 million voters voted for a third party candidate who had no chance of winning. We should try to discourage that by emphasizing that that is foolish. If Trump wins anything like 80 million votes overall, I'm sure he will pull through successfully. Dems are worried many new voters will vote for him.
One possible method of proceeding would be seeing what polls were saying last election around this time. If they indicated roughly the same numbers we see now, and the ratio of voters in the state was e.g. 60% Trump, we can estimate it will be around the same. The net increase in voting population for each state will have to be factored in. Those are just some preliminary thoughts to proceed, we'll figure out the number-crunching as we go on. God bless. [[User:NishantXavier|NishantXavier]]<sup>[[User talk:NishantXavier|For Christ the King]]</sup> 14:00, 16 May 2020 (EDT)