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→Covid-19 compared to seasonal flu
:Nobody's buying the wet market theory cause the CCP isn't even pitching it anymore. [[User:RobSmith|RobS]]<sup>[[User talk:RobSmith|Live Free or Die]]</sup> 21:19, 7 June 2020 (EDT)
:Nobody's buying the wet market theory cause the CCP isn't even pitching it anymore. [[User:RobSmith|RobS]]<sup>[[User talk:RobSmith|Live Free or Die]]</sup> 21:19, 7 June 2020 (EDT)
::Perhaps some villager in Yunnan got infected at the secret coronavirus bat cave: "[https://nationalpost.com/news/world/cave-full-of-bats-in-china-identified-as-source-of-virus-almost-identical-to-the-one-killing-hundreds-today Cave full of bats in China identified as source of virus almost identical to the one killing hundreds today]." The cave is 900 miles from Wuhan. But if the disease has a low mortality, it could have circulated for a while before anyone noticed. [[User:PeterKa|PeterKa]] ([[User talk:PeterKa|talk]]) 22:22, 7 June 2020 (EDT)
::Perhaps some villager in Yunnan got infected at the secret coronavirus bat cave: "[https://nationalpost.com/news/world/cave-full-of-bats-in-china-identified-as-source-of-virus-almost-identical-to-the-one-killing-hundreds-today Cave full of bats in China identified as source of virus almost identical to the one killing hundreds today]." The cave is 900 miles from Wuhan. But if the disease has a low mortality, it could have circulated for a while before anyone noticed. [[User:PeterKa|PeterKa]] ([[User talk:PeterKa|talk]]) 22:22, 7 June 2020 (EDT)
:::The consensus seems pretty strong - it came from a lab. To avoid sanctions at this point the CCP must allow outside inspectors in. Not that it would do any good since he [[PLA]] has taken over the lab and has plenty of time to scrub the location. It's too late.
:::De-coupling relations will take awhile. The [[D10]] organization is already being formed which is the G7 + India, South Korea, and Australia. Air travel is cancelled. Next will be cancelling student exchange programs - the D10 nations will not be training any more microbiologists for the PLA. Businesses need more time to withdraw, but the government of Japan is already granting taxbreaks to companies to withdraw. Other D10 countries probably will follow this model.
:::Then there's the Global Magnitsky Act - John McCain's legacy. This means once all D-10 nations severe commercial relations (over the next two years roughly), smaller economies outside the D10 likewise may face sanctions from all D10 countries if they continue trade with the CCP.
The big question is, can the CCP survive this upheaval internally? Make no mistake, none of this is happening cause of a dispute or misunderstanding over whether the virus came from a wet market or not. If it did, the CCP would have shown evidence to contradict the evidence of lab origins by now.
The CCP right now is biding its time and pulling out the stops to defeat Trump; but if Trump wins, and Xi overcomes challenges on policy, they have to decide on escalating the dispute to blackmail their way back into the global trading system with either a bio or conventional attack. [[User:RobSmith|RobS]]<sup>[[User talk:RobSmith|Live Free or Die]]</sup> 23:04, 7 June 2020 (EDT)