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Essay:An analysis of another misleading poll (view source)

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<center>''See also: [[Essay:An analysis of a misleading poll]]</center>
 
<center>''See also: [[Essay:An analysis of a misleading poll]]</center>
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[https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-usa-swing-state-voting-intention-14-to-19-june/ This poll] by Redfield & Wilson was published on June 25, 2020 covering the [[2020 U.S. presidential election]] and Senate elections in key swing states. For the [[2020 U.S. Senate special election in Arizona]], the poll "concluded" that Republican interim senator [[Martha McSally]] was trailing likely [[Democrat]] opponent [[Mark Kelly]] by 15 percentage points. Having a sample size of only 865 respondents, there are specifics that need to be analyzed; two-way tables are given for sample makeups in categories for gender, age, region, 2016 vote in the [[United States presidential election, 2016|presidential election]], and intended vote in the [[2020 U.S. presidential election]]. Of these, the gender and region data will be thoroughly assessed.
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[https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-usa-swing-state-voting-intention-14-to-19-june/ This poll] by Redfield & Wilton was published on June 25, 2020 covering the [[2020 U.S. presidential election]] and Senate elections in key swing states. For the [[2020 U.S. Senate special election in Arizona]], the poll "concluded" that Republican interim senator [[Martha McSally]] was trailing likely [[Democrat]] opponent [[Mark Kelly]] by 15 percentage points. Having a sample size of only 865 respondents, there are specifics that need to be analyzed; two-way tables are given for sample makeups in categories for gender, age, region, 2016 vote in the [[United States presidential election, 2016|presidential election]], and intended vote in the [[2020 U.S. presidential election]]. Of these, the gender and region data will be thoroughly assessed.
    
==Analyzing gender sample makeup/conclusions==
 
==Analyzing gender sample makeup/conclusions==
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In finding the sample makeup by region, the "Don't Know" section can be ignored. This would then leave three individual rows and columns. With such, a three-variable system can be set up and solved, with the calculated results for sample makeup roughly being 62.15% of respondents from [[Maricopa County]], 14.09% from Pima County, and 24.59% from all other counties (note that this does not add up to exactly 100%<ref name="ref1"/>). While this does seem to be weighted properly (for the most part), the real problem is that, similar to the gender makeup, the conclusions are absurd. According to the poll, Maricopa County will supposedly vote to the left of Pima County by a net of 7 percentage points, a mostly absurd notion. Pima County had voted to the left of Maricopa County by around [https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-arizona-elections.html 11.4%] in the 2018 Senate election, [https://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president/arizona/ 16.8%] in the 2016 presidential election, [https://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/senate/arizona/ 18.8%] in the 2016 Senate election, [https://www.politico.com/2012-election/results/president/arizona/ 17.8%] in the 2012 presidential election, [https://www.politico.com/2012-election/results/senate/arizona/ 20.2%] in the 2012 Senate election, etc. While it's true that many of the [[neocons]] in Maricopa County who supported establishment [[RINO]] [[John McCain]] and currently oppose [[Donald Trump]] are likely to turn against McSally ([https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/mccain-donors-flip-to-mark-kelly-over-republican-incumbent-in-key-arizona-senate-race as McCain donors are]), it's unlikely that such numbers will occur. In addition, it's unlikely that such numbers will be the case for the rest of the Arizona counties (that lean [[Republican]]), as the entirety of sample appears to be skewed to the left.
 
In finding the sample makeup by region, the "Don't Know" section can be ignored. This would then leave three individual rows and columns. With such, a three-variable system can be set up and solved, with the calculated results for sample makeup roughly being 62.15% of respondents from [[Maricopa County]], 14.09% from Pima County, and 24.59% from all other counties (note that this does not add up to exactly 100%<ref name="ref1"/>). While this does seem to be weighted properly (for the most part), the real problem is that, similar to the gender makeup, the conclusions are absurd. According to the poll, Maricopa County will supposedly vote to the left of Pima County by a net of 7 percentage points, a mostly absurd notion. Pima County had voted to the left of Maricopa County by around [https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-arizona-elections.html 11.4%] in the 2018 Senate election, [https://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president/arizona/ 16.8%] in the 2016 presidential election, [https://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/senate/arizona/ 18.8%] in the 2016 Senate election, [https://www.politico.com/2012-election/results/president/arizona/ 17.8%] in the 2012 presidential election, [https://www.politico.com/2012-election/results/senate/arizona/ 20.2%] in the 2012 Senate election, etc. While it's true that many of the [[neocons]] in Maricopa County who supported establishment [[RINO]] [[John McCain]] and currently oppose [[Donald Trump]] are likely to turn against McSally ([https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/mccain-donors-flip-to-mark-kelly-over-republican-incumbent-in-key-arizona-senate-race as McCain donors are]), it's unlikely that such numbers will occur. In addition, it's unlikely that such numbers will be the case for the rest of the Arizona counties (that lean [[Republican]]), as the entirety of sample appears to be skewed to the left.
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==Analyzing 2016 presidential vote sample makeup/conclusions==
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:''([[Essay:An_analysis_of_another_misleading_poll/calculations#Finding_sample_makeup_by_2016_presidential_vote|see here]] for mathematical calculations related to this section)
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The following table is an assessment of the respondents' preferences between McSally and Kelly by their vote in the [[2016 United States presidential election]]:
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{|class="wikitable sortable" style="text-align:center;"
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!class=unsortable |
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!class=unsortable | [[Donald Trump]]
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!class=unsortable | [[Hillary Clinton]]
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!class=unsortable | Other<br>([[Third party]])
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!class=unsortable | Didn't Vote
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|-
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|[[Martha McSally]]
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|71%
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|4%
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|14%
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|13%
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|-
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|[[Mark E. Kelly]]
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|15%
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|86%
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|46%
 +
|43%
 +
|-
 +
|Other
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|2%
 +
|2%
 +
|17%
 +
|6%
 +
|-
 +
|Don't Know
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|11%
 +
|8%
 +
|23%
 +
|37%
 +
|Total
 +
|99%<ref name="ref1"/>
 +
|100%
 +
|100%
 +
|99%<ref name="ref1"/>
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|}
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Since there are four individuals rows (excluding the "Total") and columns, a four-variable system can be set up and solved, with the calculated results being around 42.36% of respondents having voted for Trump in 2016, 40.78% for Clinton, 2.65% going [[third party]], and 14.78% having not voted then. While the percent ratio between Trump and Clinton is mostly weighed properly, it's important to note that the polling sample for "Other" may be left-leaning and unreliable; since many in the group may have been normally [[Republican]]-leaning [[Mormon]] voters who possibly voted third party in 2016 (as was especially present in [[Utah]]) and there most likely isn't going to be a major third party candidate in the [[2020 presidential election]], it's unlikely that a much larger percentage of them will vote [[Democrat]].
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==Analyzing intended 2020 presidential vote sample makeup/conclusions==
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:''([[Essay:An_analysis_of_another_misleading_poll/calculations#Finding_sample_makeup_by_intended_2020_presidential_vote|see here]] for mathematical calculations related to this section)
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The following is a table showing respondents' preferences between [[Martha McSally]] and [[Mark Kelly]] by their intended vote in the [[2020 U.S. presidential election]]:
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{|class="wikitable sortable" style="text-align:center;"
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!class=unsortable |
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!class=unsortable | [[Donald Trump]]
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!class=unsortable | [[Joseph Robinette Biden]]
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!class=unsortable | Don't Know
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!class=unsortable | Won't Vote
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|-
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|[[Martha McSally]]
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|76%
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|3%
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|20%
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|46%
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|-
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|[[Mark Kelly]]
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|11%
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|90%
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|22%
 +
|36%
 +
|-
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|Other
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|1%
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|1%
 +
|8%
 +
|7%
 +
|-
 +
|Don't Know
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|12%
 +
|5%
 +
|51%
 +
|11%
 +
|-
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|Total
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|100%
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|99%<ref name="ref1"/>
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|101%<ref name="ref1"/>
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|100%
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|}
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Similar to the previous section, as there are four individual rows (again excluding the "Total") and columns, a four-variable system can be set up and solved to find the sample makeup, with the resulting figures being ~28.65% intending to vote for Trump in 2020, ~40.467% planning to vote for Biden, ~12.7776 answering "Don't Know", and ~18.38% saying that they won't vote in the presidential election. Since it's very unlikely that Biden will win over Trump in [[Arizona]] by over 10 points in the general, it becomes very obvious that the entire sample is left-leaning. Furthermore, the conclusions highlighted in this section contradict [https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/the-story-in-six-swing-states/ a previous poll] by the same company in late May 2020 which "concluded" that Biden was leading Trump by only 4 points.
    
==Analyzing age group sample makeup/conclusions==
 
==Analyzing age group sample makeup/conclusions==
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