Changes

Adjustments for the sample makeup need to be made regarding party ID. In the poll, Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 8 percentage points and outnumbered registered independents by 6 points. [https://www.pressherald.com/2020/08/10/democrats-maintain-large-lead-in-voter-registration-in-maine/ According to the Portland Press Herald on August 10, 2020], statistics from the [[Maine]] Secretary of State office showed that 27% of registered voters were Republicans, 36% were Democrats, and 32% were Independents. And to adjust the poll by party ID:

Adjustments for the sample makeup need to be made regarding party ID. In the poll, Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 8 percentage points and outnumbered registered independents by 6 points. [https://www.pressherald.com/2020/08/10/democrats-maintain-large-lead-in-voter-registration-in-maine/ According to the Portland Press Herald on August 10, 2020], statistics from the [[Maine]] Secretary of State office showed that 27% of registered voters were Republicans, 36% were Democrats, and 32% were Independents. And to adjust the poll by party ID:

<pre style="width:33em">

<pre style="width:34em">

Collins: (27% × 87%) + (36% × 5%) + (32% × 48%) = 40.65%

Collins: (27% × 87%) + (36% × 5%) + (32% × 48%) = 40.65%

Gideon:  (27% × 5%) + (36% × 91%) + (32% × 41%) = 47.23%

Gideon:  (27% × 5%) + (36% × 91%) + (32% × 41%) = 47.23%

Since the Secretary of State data showed that Republicans were over-weighed in the poll, Gideon's lead increases after adjustments. However, this isn't an accurate method to weigh fake polls! The simple reason for such is that for the state of Maine in the [[2016 U.S. presidential election]], ''[https://ballotpedia.org/Voter_turnout_in_United_States_elections voter turnout was only 73%]]''. This means that out of all the registered voters statewide, around one-fourths didn't vote in the election. In addition, the statewide turnout percentage fell to only 60% in the [[2018 Midterms]]. Since the [[2020 United States Senate election in Maine]] coincides with the [[2020 U.S. presidential election]], the turnout would be expected to match that of 2016, if not greater due to potential greater enthusiasm for Trump. Thus, it would be more accurate to adjust the poll by 2016 exit polling for the state of [[Maine]]. According to the statistics in [https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/maine/president this CNN exit poll conducted then], 30% of respondents for it were registered [[Republicans]], 31% were [[Democrats]], and 39% were [[independent voters|Independents]]. In addition, [https://maineanencyclopedia.com/political-party-enrollment/ this source] shows that the party registration numbers in 2016 in terms of percentages are very close the numbers currently. And to weigh properly:

Since the Secretary of State data showed that Republicans were over-weighed in the poll, Gideon's lead increases after adjustments. However, this isn't an accurate method to weigh fake polls! The simple reason for such is that for the state of Maine in the [[2016 U.S. presidential election]], ''[https://ballotpedia.org/Voter_turnout_in_United_States_elections voter turnout was only 73%]]''. This means that out of all the registered voters statewide, around one-fourths didn't vote in the election. In addition, the statewide turnout percentage fell to only 60% in the [[2018 Midterms]]. Since the [[2020 United States Senate election in Maine]] coincides with the [[2020 U.S. presidential election]], the turnout would be expected to match that of 2016, if not greater due to potential greater enthusiasm for Trump. Thus, it would be more accurate to adjust the poll by 2016 exit polling for the state of [[Maine]]. According to the statistics in [https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/maine/president this CNN exit poll conducted then], 30% of respondents for it were registered [[Republicans]], 31% were [[Democrats]], and 39% were [[independent voters|Independents]]. In addition, [https://maineanencyclopedia.com/political-party-enrollment/ this source] shows that the party registration numbers in 2016 in terms of percentages are very close the numbers currently. And to weigh properly:

<pre style="width:33em">

<pre style="width:34em">

Collins: (30% × 87%) + (31% × 5%) + (39% × 48%) = 46.37%

Collins: (30% × 87%) + (31% × 5%) + (39% × 48%) = 46.37%

Gideon:  (30% × 5%) + (31% × 91%) + (39% × 41%) = 45.70%

Gideon:  (30% × 5%) + (31% × 91%) + (39% × 41%) = 45.70%