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Essay:Analyses of misleading polls (view source)
Revision as of 16:11, August 23, 2020
, 16:11, August 23, 2020added a section
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=August 23, 2020=
{{Essay By|Liberaltears}}
[https://s3.amazonaws.com/s3.moveon.org/images/IowaResults1.pdf This poll] was conducted by the Public Policy Polling for the [[2020 U.S. Senate election in Iowa]] between Republican incumbent [[Joni Ernst]] and Democrat challenger Theresa Greenfield, having been administered in mid-August 2020; it had a moderately low sample size of 729 respondents and a margin of error at ±4.1%. While the poll is mostly inaccurate, specifics need to be thoroughly analyzed. According to the poll, Ernst is trailing Greenfield by three points.
==Voter registration data==
According to official [[Iowa]] party registration data listed [https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/voterreg/regstat.html here], there was a total of 1,996,153 registered voters [https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/VRStatsArchive/2016/CongNov16.pdf in November 2016] amidst the [[2016 U.S. presidential election]], with 662,167 (33%) being [[Republicans]], 629,081 (31.5%) being [[Democrats]], and 694,005 (35%) being [[Independent voters|Independents]]. For [https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/VRStatsArchive/2020/CongAug20.pdf August 2020], out of 2,012,553 active registered voters, 683,888 (34%) are Republicans, 681,389 (34%) are Democrats, and 633,420 (31.5%) are Independents.
==Voter turnout calculations==
According to [[CNN]] exit polls for the 2016 [https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/iowa/president presidential] and [https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/iowa/senate Senate] elections in Iowa, Republican and independent voters were roughly each split between 34.5% of the makeup (34% for Republicans and 35% for Independents for the presidential race, vice versa for the Senate race), while Democrats made up 31%. In the presidential and Senate elections respectively, [https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/iowa it was reported] that totals of 1,566,031 votes and 1,539,351 votes were cast. And to calculate for turnout:
<pre style="width:34em">
Presidential election:
Republican: (1,566,031 × 34%)/683,888 = 78%
Democrat: (1,566,031 × 31%)/629,081 = 77%
Independent: (1,566,031 × 35%)/694,005 = 79%
Senate election:
Republican: (1,539,351 × 35%)/683,888 = 79%
Democrat: (1,539,351 × 31%)/629,081 = 76%
Independent: (1,539,351 × 34%)/694,005 = 75%
</pre>
This means that for the voter turnout rates in 2016, around 78% of registered Republicans voted, along with 76% of registered Democrats and 77% of registered Independents.
==Calculations==
The following table shows the preferences between Ernst and Greenfield by political party, as the poll states:
{|class="wikitable sortable" style="text-align:center;"
!class=unsortable|
!class=unsortable|Total
!class=unsortable|[[Republican]]
!class=unsortable|[[Democrat]]
!class=unsortable|[[Independent voters|Independent]]
|-
|[[Joni Ernst]]
|45%
|82%
|7%
|45%
|-
|Theresa Greenfield
|48%
|6%
|91%
|46%
|-
|'''Total
|93%
|88%
|98%
|91%
|}
The top of the page also states for the sample makeup that Republicans and Democrats are split with 34% each, while [[Independent voters]] make up 32% of the respondents. Based on previous calculations regarding turnout numbers, the following would be expected in the 2020 presidential and Senate elections in Iowa, assuming that the rates are similar to 2016, which may not be the case:
<pre style="width:34em">
Republican: (683,888 × 78%) = 533,433
Democrat: (681,389 × 76%) = 517,856
Independent: (633,420 × 77%) = 487,733
————————————————————————————————————————
1,539,022
Simplified numbers:
Republican: 533,433/1,539,022 = 35%
Democrat: 517,856/1,539,022 = 34%
Independent: 487,733/1,539,022 = 32%
</pre>
After simplifying, the numbers are nearly identical to the ones on the poll. However, there are important details to note: the company from which the poll was administered [https://web.archive.org/web/20161010164449/http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2008/11/ppps-bias.html admitted at one point to be a Democrat-aligned] and consistently uses low samples that are skewed towards the left, especially among independent voters. Furthermore, the calculated numbers are based on the presumption that turnout in 2020 would be the same as in 2016. While Ernst may potentially under-perform compared to Trump due to the fact that Greenfield may likely enthuse voters more than the senile, [[Joe Biden's cognitive decline|cognitively dysfunctional Biden]] will, she has generally been popular in her home state, as most polling and election ratings covering the 2020 Senate elections have generally "concluded" that some [[Republican]] incumbents somehow suddenly lose popularity several months before the general elections.
=August 19, 2020=
=August 19, 2020=