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Essay:Analyses of misleading polls (view source)
Revision as of 17:59, October 21, 2020
, 17:59, October 21, 2020added a section (start)
__TOC__
__TOC__
=October 21, 2020=
{{Essay By|Liberaltears}}
[https://drive.google.com/file/d/11m_TsAdy6mdL7dpGL8I-5BWlbAb4GMlH/view This CBS/YouGov poll] was released in mid-October 2020 covering the 2020 presidential and Senate elections in [[Arizona]], stating that the [[Joe Biden's cognitive decline|cognitively declined]] [[Joe Biden]] is leading [[Donald Trump]] in the presidential race by four points, in addition to asserting that the [[CCP]]-tied [[Mark Kelly]] is leading Sen. [[Martha McSally]] in the [[2020 U.S. Senate election in Arizona|2020 Senate special election in Arizona]] by eleven points. Specifics need to be analyzed.
==Calculations==
According to page 15 in the .pdf showing statistics of the poll, of the 1,074 respondents who answered on whether vote for Trump or Biden by political party affiliation, 328 (30.5%) were Republicans, 365 (34%) were Democrats, and 361 (33.6%) were independents. According to the table in the polling data:
{|class="wikitable"
!
![[Republican]]
![[Democrat]]
![[Independent voters|Independent]]
!Total
|-
|[[Donald Trump]]
|93%
|1%
|45%
|45%
|-
|[[Joe Biden]]
|2%
|97%
|43%
|49%
|-
|'''Total
|95%
|98%
|88%
|94%
|}
As shown, independents slightly favor Trump over Biden despite the [[liberal]]/[[MSM]] narrative otherwise; however, the samples are not weighed properly. Assuming high turnout in the 2020 elections somewhat similar to the [[2016 U.S. presidential election]], an exit poll from the latter can be used to better weigh the poll. Based off of [https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/arizona/president this CNN exit poll], of 1,729 respondents who voted in the 2016 election, 32% were Republicans, 28% Democrats, and 40% were independents. To calculate according to such:
<pre style="width:25em">
Trump: (32% × 93%) + (28% × 1%) + (40% × 45%) = 48.04%
Biden: (32% × 2%) + (28% × 97%) + (40% × 43%) = 45%
</pre>
As shown, when the samples are weighed properly, Trump is ''leading'' Biden by three percentage points, around his 2016 margin of victory in the state. However, given different circumstances in the 2020 elections, this may not be the most accurate way to predict the outcomes.
The following table was listed in the 26th page of the .pdf for the Senate special election:
{|class="wikitable"
!
![[Republican]]
![[Democrat]]
![[Independent voters|Independent]]
!Total
|-
|Martha McSally
|88%
|3%
|40%
|41%
|-
|Mark Kelly
|7%
|96%
|47%
|52%
|-
|'''Total
|98%
|99%
|91%
|}
=August 23, 2020=
=August 23, 2020=