Changes

Jump to navigation Jump to search
spacing
Line 79: Line 79:  
==Conclusion==
 
==Conclusion==
 
While properly weighing the party ID shows that the Democrats' lead claimed in the poll significantly falls, it's important to note that the 2020 elections will differ from the 2016 elections, and thus this is only a prediction to examine the [[liberal bias]] in the poll via comparing with numbers from previous election cycles that are more likely to match turnout rates expected in this one.
 
While properly weighing the party ID shows that the Democrats' lead claimed in the poll significantly falls, it's important to note that the 2020 elections will differ from the 2016 elections, and thus this is only a prediction to examine the [[liberal bias]] in the poll via comparing with numbers from previous election cycles that are more likely to match turnout rates expected in this one.
 +
    
=August 23, 2020=
 
=August 23, 2020=
Line 146: Line 147:     
After simplifying, the numbers are nearly identical to the ones on the poll. However, there are important details to note: the company from which the poll was administered [https://web.archive.org/web/20161010164449/http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2008/11/ppps-bias.html admitted at one point to be a Democrat-aligned] and frequently uses low samples that are skewed towards the left, especially among independent voters. Furthermore, the calculated numbers are based on the presumption that turnout in 2020 would be the same as in 2016. While Ernst may potentially under-perform compared to Trump due to the fact that Greenfield may likely enthuse voters more than the senile, [[Joe Biden's cognitive decline|cognitively dysfunctional Biden]] will, especially among Independents, the incumbent senator has generally been popular in her home state, as most polling and election ratings covering the 2020 Senate elections have mostly "concluded" that some [[Republican]] incumbents somehow suddenly lose popularity several months before the general elections.
 
After simplifying, the numbers are nearly identical to the ones on the poll. However, there are important details to note: the company from which the poll was administered [https://web.archive.org/web/20161010164449/http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2008/11/ppps-bias.html admitted at one point to be a Democrat-aligned] and frequently uses low samples that are skewed towards the left, especially among independent voters. Furthermore, the calculated numbers are based on the presumption that turnout in 2020 would be the same as in 2016. While Ernst may potentially under-perform compared to Trump due to the fact that Greenfield may likely enthuse voters more than the senile, [[Joe Biden's cognitive decline|cognitively dysfunctional Biden]] will, especially among Independents, the incumbent senator has generally been popular in her home state, as most polling and election ratings covering the 2020 Senate elections have mostly "concluded" that some [[Republican]] incumbents somehow suddenly lose popularity several months before the general elections.
 +
    
=August 19, 2020=
 
=August 19, 2020=
Line 194: Line 196:     
After calculating based on the more accurate method of using exit polls, Collins leads Gideon by just under one percentage point. This shows that rather than leaning Democrat, the [[2020 U.S. Senate election in Maine]] slightly tilts towards the incumbent [[RINO]] senator's favor, if not a tossup.
 
After calculating based on the more accurate method of using exit polls, Collins leads Gideon by just under one percentage point. This shows that rather than leaning Democrat, the [[2020 U.S. Senate election in Maine]] slightly tilts towards the incumbent [[RINO]] senator's favor, if not a tossup.
 +
    
=July 16, 2020=
 
=July 16, 2020=
Line 306: Line 309:     
While the lead shrinks down from 1.66% to 1.08%, it still shows that McSally is leading Kelly in the race, despite liberals claiming that the former will lose by potentially 8 to 10 percentage points.
 
While the lead shrinks down from 1.66% to 1.08%, it still shows that McSally is leading Kelly in the race, despite liberals claiming that the former will lose by potentially 8 to 10 percentage points.
 +
    
=July 3, 3030=
 
=July 3, 3030=
 
:''See main article: [[Essay:An analysis of another misleading poll]]
 
:''See main article: [[Essay:An analysis of another misleading poll]]
 +
    
=June 18, 2020=
 
=June 18, 2020=
SkipCaptcha
35,519

edits

Navigation menu