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Essay:Analyses of misleading polls (view source)
Revision as of 19:37, October 25, 2020
, 19:37, October 25, 2020added a section
The following is a list of analyses mainly related to the [[2020 U.S. Senate elections]] as well as the [[United States presidential election, 2020|concurrent presidential election]]. Note that most inaccurate polls are skipped over due to the samples being very skewed to the left; ones looked over in this page are mostly either from Public Policy Polling, [[CBS]]/YouGov, or Civiqs/[[Daily Kos]].
The following is a list of analyses mainly related to the [[2020 U.S. Senate elections]] as well as the [[United States presidential election, 2020|concurrent presidential election]]. Note that most inaccurate polls are skipped over due to the samples being very skewed to the left; ones looked over in this page are mostly either from Public Policy Polling, [[CBS]]/YouGov, or Civiqs/[[Daily Kos]].
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=October 25, 2020=
{{Essay By|Liberaltears}}
[https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_MN_banner_book_2020_10_d859f5.pdf This Civiqs/Daily Kos poll] was conducted in mid-October for the 2020 elections in [[Minnesota]], stating that Biden is leading Trump by ten points in the presidential election and that [[Tina Smith]] is leading [[Republican]] opponent [[Jason Lewis]] by eleven points in the concurrent Senate election. It states on the top of the .pdf that 840 ''likely voters'' were surveyed, with a margin of error at ±3.6%. Specifics need to be analyzed, given that the conducting of the poll involved [[Daily Kos]], a [[far-left]] group.
The following tables were shown for the presidential and Senate elections for preferences by party affiliation:
{|class="wikitable" style="float:left"
!
![[Republican]]
![[Democrat]]
![[Independent voters|Independent]]
!Total
|-
|[[Donald Trump]]
|94%
|2%
|46%
|43%
|-
|[[Joe Biden]]
|5%
|96%
|46%
|53%
|-
|'''Total
|99%
|98%
|92%
|96%
|}
{|class="wikitable" style="float:left"
!
![[Republican]]
![[Democrat]]
![[Independent voters|Independent]]
!Total
|-
|[[Jason Lewis]]
|95%
|1%
|47%
|43%
|-
|[[Tina Smith]]
|4%
|97%
|48%
|54%
|-
|'''Total
|99%
|98%
|95%
|97%
|}
Based off the statistics, it's important to observe that Trump and Biden are, based off the numbers, tied with [[independent voters]]; this thus contradicts the narrative typically promoted by other fake polls that [[Republicans]] are supposedly losing ground with independents. However, the only possible reason that Trump and Lewis would be down by 10-11 points would be that [[Democrats]] make up a higher percentage of the sample than Republicans do; according to the bottom of the .pdf, 29% of the sample are [[Republicans]], 39% are [[Democrats]], and 32% are [[Independent voters|independents]]. Are Democrat voters over-weighed? Given the 2020 to be a presidential election year where turnout numbers may be similar to that of the [[2016 U.S. presidential election]], an exit poll from the latter can be used for comparison. According to [https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/minnesota/president this one from CNN], 35% of 2016 [[Minnesota]] voters who voted in the presidential election were Republicans, 37% were Democrats, and 28% were independents. This means that the poll under-weighed Republicans by 6%, over-weighed Democrats by 2%, and over-weighed independents by 4%. And to weigh more accurately using the exit poll:
<pre style="width:33em">
Trump: (35% × 94%) + (37% × 2%) + (28% × 46%) = 46.52%
Biden: (35% × 5%) + (37% × 96%) + (28% × 46%) = 50.15%
Lewis: (35% × 95%) + (37% × 1%) + (28% × 47%) = 46.78%
Smith: (35% × 4%) + (37% × 97%) + (28% × 48%) = 50.73%
</pre>
As seen here, after weighing by the 2016 exit poll, Biden's lead falls from 10% to only 3.63%, and Smith's lead over Lewis falls from 11% to only 3.95%.
Another interesting note about the poll is regarding the favorability sections: while [[independent voters]] disapprove of [[Donald Trump]] by a net of 14%, they also disapprove of Biden by 15%, disapprove of Sen. Smith by a net of 4%, disapprove of [[Amy Klobuchar]] by a net of 11%, and overall ''approve'' of Lewis by a net of 6%.
Given how the poll was skewed to the left and the Democrat leads that shrunk massively after weighing properly, it likely signals that [[Minnesota]] is more likely to favor Republicans in the 2020 general elections than many may expect. It's also important to note that while exit polls from previous elections may more accurately be used as a model for the 2020 elections, it's most likely not a perfect measure, as the 2020 turnout rates by party ''will'' be different from previous cycles. Furthermore, given the poll to likely favor [[Democrats]] due to the involvement of [[Daily Kos]], Republicans may potentially win over independent voters by a handy margin and win the state of [[Minnesota]] for the presidential and Senate races, despite the insistence otherwise by increasingly unreliable "experts".