Changes

Based off the statistics, it's important to firstly observe that Trump and Biden are, based off the numbers, tied with [[independent voters]]; this thus contradicts the narrative typically promoted by other fake polls that [[Republicans]] are supposedly losing ground with independents. However, the only possible reason that Trump and Lewis would be down by 10-11 points would be that [[Democrats]] make up a higher percentage of the sample than Republicans do; according to the bottom of the .pdf, 29% of the sample are [[Republicans]], 39% are [[Democrats]], and 32% are [[Independent voters|independents]]. Are Democrat voters over-weighed? Given the 2020 to be a presidential election year where turnout numbers may be similar to that of the [[2016 U.S. presidential election]], an exit poll from the latter can be used for comparison. According to [https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/minnesota/president this one from CNN], 35% of 2016 [[Minnesota]] voters who voted in the presidential election were Republicans, 37% were Democrats, and 28% were independents. This means that the poll under-weighed Republicans by 6%, over-weighed Democrats by 2%, and over-weighed independents by 4%. And to weigh more accurately using the exit poll:

Based off the statistics, it's important to firstly observe that Trump and Biden are, based off the numbers, tied with [[independent voters]]; this thus contradicts the narrative typically promoted by other fake polls that [[Republicans]] are supposedly losing ground with independents. However, the only possible reason that Trump and Lewis would be down by 10-11 points would be that [[Democrats]] make up a higher percentage of the sample than Republicans do; according to the bottom of the .pdf, 29% of the sample are [[Republicans]], 39% are [[Democrats]], and 32% are [[Independent voters|independents]]. Are Democrat voters over-weighed? Given 2020 to be a presidential election year where turnout numbers may be similar to that of the [[2016 U.S. presidential election]], an exit poll from the latter can be used for comparison. According to [https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/minnesota/president this one from CNN], 35% of 2016 [[Minnesota]] voters who voted in the presidential election were Republicans, 37% were Democrats, and 28% were independents. This means that the poll under-weighed Republicans by 6%, over-weighed Democrats by 2%, and over-weighed independents by 4%. And to weigh more accurately using the exit poll:

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Trump: (35% × 94%) + (37% × 2%) + (28% × 46%) = 46.52%

Trump: (35% × 94%) + (37% × 2%) + (28% × 46%) = 46.52%