Changes

Since [[independent voters]] appear to favor [[Donald Trump]] and [[David Perdue]] by clear margins, the only way they could be tied in their respective races is if Democrats are over-weighed and/or independents are under-weighed in the poll. Based off the previous numbers listed for the Senate race in terms of party affiliation, 35.83% were [[Republicans]], 36.38% were [[Democrats]], and 26.78% were [[independent voters|independents]]. For the numbers for the presidential race, 35.78% were Republicans, 36.24% were Democrats, and 26.88% were independents. Are they an accurate model to use for the 2020 elections in [[Georgia]]? Assuming that the turnout rate (and thus rates by party) will be similar and comparable to the [[2016 U.S. presidential election]], an exit poll from the previous cycle can be used to compare. According to this [https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/georgia/president 2016 CNN exit poll] for the presidential election then, 36% were Republicans, 34% were Democrats, and 30% were independents. This means that the [[CBS]]/YouGov poll, when compared to the exit poll, under-weighed independents and slightly over-weighed Democrats. And to weigh properly:

Since [[independent voters]] appear to favor [[Donald Trump]] and [[David Perdue]] by clear margins, the only way they could be tied in their respective races is if Democrats are over-weighed and/or independents are under-weighed in the poll. Based off the previous numbers listed for the Senate race in terms of party affiliation, 35.83% were [[Republicans]], 36.38% were [[Democrats]], and 26.78% were [[independent voters|independents]]. For the numbers for the presidential race, 35.78% were Republicans, 36.24% were Democrats, and 26.88% were independents. Are they an accurate model to use for the 2020 elections in [[Georgia]]? Assuming that the turnout rate (and thus turnout numbers by party) will be similar and comparable to the [[2016 U.S. presidential election]], an exit poll from the previous cycle can be used to compare. According to this [https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/georgia/president 2016 CNN exit poll] for the presidential election then, 36% were Republicans, 34% were Democrats, and 30% were independents. This means that the [[CBS]]/YouGov poll, when compared to the exit poll, under-weighed independents and slightly over-weighed Democrats. And to weigh properly:

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Trump:  (36% × 95%) + (34% × 2%) + (30% × 50%) = 49.88%

Trump:  (36% × 95%) + (34% × 2%) + (30% × 50%) = 49.88%