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Line 1: − + − {{Redirect|Global warming}}+ − {{pp-move-indef}}+ − {{pp-semi-indef}}+ − {{short description|Current rise in Earth's average temperature and its effects}}+ − {{Use dmy dates|date=December 2020}}+ − {{Use British English Oxford spelling|date=June 2019}}+ − {{featured article}} − {{bots|deny=InternetArchiveBot}} − − − <!--Please do not change the content in the lead section without prior discussion-->+ − '''Climate change''' includes both '''global warming''' driven by human emissions of [[greenhouse gas]]es, and the resulting large-scale shifts in weather patterns. Though there have been [[Climate variability and change|previous periods of climatic change]], since the mid-20th century, humans have had unprecedented impact on Earth's climate system and caused change on a global scale.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Summary for Policymakers|2013|p=4|ps=: Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea level has risen, and the concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased}}; {{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch1|2018|p=54|ps=: Abundant empirical evidence of the unprecedented rate and global scale of impact of human influence on the Earth System (Steffen et al., 2016; Waters et al., 2016) has led many scientists to call for an acknowledgement that the Earth has entered a new geological epoch: the [[Anthropocene]].}}</ref> − The largest driver of warming is the emission of greenhouse gases, of which more than 90% are [[carbon dioxide]] ({{CO2}}) and [[methane]].<ref>{{harvnb|EPA|2020|ps=: Carbon dioxide (76%), Methane (16%), Nitrous Oxide (6%).}}</ref> [[Fossil fuel]] burning (coal, oil, and gas) for [[World energy consumption|energy consumption]] is the main source of these emissions, with additional contributions from agriculture, deforestation, and [[Industrial processes#Chemical processes by main basic material|industrial processes]].<ref>{{harvnb|EPA|2020|ps=: Carbon dioxide enters the atmosphere through burning fossil fuels (coal, natural gas, and oil), solid waste, trees and other biological materials, and also as a result of certain chemical reactions (e.g., manufacture of cement). Fossil fuel use is the primary source of {{CO2}}. {{CO2}} can also be emitted from direct human-induced impacts on forestry and other land use, such as through deforestation, land clearing for agriculture, and degradation of soils. Methane is emitted during the production and transport of coal, natural gas, and oil. Methane emissions also result from livestock and other agricultural practices and by the decay of organic waste in municipal solid waste landfills.}}</ref> The human cause of climate change is not disputed by any scientific body of national or international standing.<ref>{{cite web|title=Scientific Consensus: Earth's Climate is Warming|url=https://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200328082109/https://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/|archive-date=28 March 2020|access-date=29 March 2020|work=Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet|publisher=[[NASA JPL]]}}; {{harvnb|Gleick, 7 January|2017}}.</ref> Temperature rise is accelerated or tempered by [[Climate change feedback|climate feedbacks]], such as loss of [[Albedo|sunlight-reflecting snow and ice cover]], increased [[Water vapor|water vapour]] (a greenhouse gas itself), and changes to [[Carbon sink|land and ocean carbon sinks]].+ − Temperature rise on land is about twice the global average increase, leading to desert expansion and more common [[heat wave]]s and [[wildfire]]s.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL|2019|p=7|ps=: Since the pre-industrial period, the land surface air temperature has risen nearly twice as much as the global average temperature (high confidence). Climate change... contributed to desertification and land degradation in many regions (high confidence).}}; {{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL|2019|p=45|ps=: Climate change is playing an increasing role in determining wildfire regimes alongside human activity (medium confidence), with future climate variability expected to enhance the risk and severity of wildfires in many biomes such as tropical rainforests (high confidence).}}</ref> Increasing rates of evaporation cause [[Tropical cyclones and climate change|more intense storms]] and [[Extreme weather|weather extremes]].<ref name=":0" /> Temperature rise is [[polar amplification|amplified in the Arctic]], where it has contributed to melting [[permafrost]] and the [[retreat of glaciers since 1850|retreat of glaciers]] and sea ice.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SROCC|2019|p=16|ps=: Over the last decades, global warming has led to widespread shrinking of the cryosphere, with mass loss from ice sheets and glaciers (very high confidence), reductions in snow cover (high confidence) and Arctic sea ice extent and thickness (very high confidence), and increased permafrost temperature (very high confidence).}}</ref> Additional warming also increases the risk of triggering critical thresholds called [[Tipping points in the climate system|tipping points]].<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR|2014|loc=3.2|p=77}}</ref> [[Climate change and ecosystems|Impacts on ecosystems]] include the relocation or [[Extinction risk from global warming|extinction]] of many species as their environment changes, most immediately in [[Environmental issues with coral reefs|coral reefs]], mountains, and [[Climate change in the Arctic|the Arctic]].<ref>{{cite web|author=EPA|date=19 January 2017|title=Climate Impacts on Ecosystems|url=https://19january2017snapshot.epa.gov/climate-impacts/climate-impacts-ecosystems_.html#Extinction|url-status=live|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180127185656/https://19january2017snapshot.epa.gov/climate-impacts/climate-impacts-ecosystems_.html#Extinction|archive-date=27 January 2018|access-date=5 February 2019|quote=Mountain and arctic ecosystems and species are particularly sensitive to climate change... As ocean temperatures warm and the acidity of the ocean increases, bleaching and coral die-offs are likely to become more frequent.}}</ref> Human impacts include undernutrition and hunger from [[Climate change and agriculture|reduced crop yields]],<ref>{{harvnb|Zhao|Liu|Piao|Wang|2017}}; {{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Ch5|2019|p=439}}; {{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Ch5|2019|p=462}}</ref> [[Climate change and fisheries|declining fish stocks]],<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SROCC|2019|p=22|ps=: Ocean warming in the 20th century and beyond has contributed to an overall decrease in maximum catch potential (medium confidence), compounding the impacts from overfishing for some fish stocks (high confidence). In many regions, declines in the abundance of fish and shellfish stocks due to direct and indirect effects of global warming and biogeochemical changes have already contributed to reduced fisheries catches (high confidence).}}</ref> increases in vector-borne diseases,<ref>{{harvnb|WHO|2014|pp=9–12}}</ref> flooding,<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR|2014|loc=SPM 2.3|p=15}}</ref> potentially severe [[Economics of climate change|economic impacts]],<ref>{{harvnb|DeFries|Edenhofer|Halliday|Heal|2019|p=3}}; {{harvnb|Krogstrup|Oman|2019|p=10}}.</ref> increased global economic inequality,<ref>{{harvnb|Diffenbaugh|Burke|2019}}; {{harvnb|The Guardian, 26 January|2015}}; {{harvnb|Burke|Davis|Diffenbaugh|2018}}.</ref> more people living in uninhabitable climate zones,<ref>{{harvnb|Balsari|Dresser|Leaning|2020}}</ref> and increased migration.{{Sfn|Brown|2008}} Effects such as these have led the World Health Organization to declare climate change the greatest threat to global health in the 21st century.<ref name="WHO, Nov 2015">{{harvnb|WHO, Nov|2015|ps=: Climate change is the greatest threat to global health in the 21st century.}}</ref> Even if efforts to minimize future warming are successful, some effects will continue for centuries, including [[rising sea levels]], rising ocean temperatures, and [[ocean acidification]].<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch1|2018|p=64|ps=: Sustained net zero anthropogenic emissions of {{CO2}} and declining net anthropogenic non-{{CO2}} radiative forcing over a multi-decade period would halt anthropogenic global warming over that period, although it would not halt sea level rise or many other aspects of climate system adjustment.}}</ref>+ − {{Sidebar+ − | pretitle = Some impacts of climate change − | pretitlestyle = font-weight:bold; − | cellspacing = 0 − | cellpadding = 0 − | width = − | style = border:1px solid #c8ccd1; − | content1style = margin:-10px -5px -25px -5px; display: inline-block; − | content1 = {{Transclude files as random slideshow − | Climate change | section1=Nature and wildlife − | Climate change | section2=Humans − }} − | content2style = height:0px; margin:0 -0.4em; padding:0; display:inline-block; visibility:hidden; − | content2 = [[File:Greenhouse Effect.svg|frameless|border|upright=1.35|Energy flows between space, the atmosphere, and Earth's surface. Current greenhouse gas levels are causing a [[Radiative forcing|radiative imbalance]] of about 0.9 W/m<sup>2</sup>.<ref>{{harvnb|Trenberth|Fasullo|2016}}</ref>]] − }} − <!-- Notes on Some impacts of climate change sidebar: − If "Nature and wildlife" or "Humans" sections are renamed, gallery will break − Gallery is only visible in desktop view, hidden on mobile view − The content2 is needed for sizing the gallery width to upright=1.35 --> − Many of these impacts are already felt at the current level of warming, which is about 1.1 °C (2.0 °F).<ref>{{harvnb|Lindsey|Dahlman|2020}}</ref> The [[Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]] (IPCC) has issued a series of reports that project significant increases in these impacts as warming continues to {{Convert|1.5|C-change}} and beyond.<ref name="SR15" /> Responding to climate change involves [[Climate change mitigation|mitigation]] and [[Climate change adaptation|adaptation]].<ref>{{harvnb|NASA, Mitigation and Adaptation|2020}}</ref> Mitigation – limiting climate change – consists of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and removing them from the atmosphere;<ref>{{harvnb|NASA, Mitigation and Adaptation|2020}}</ref> methods include the development and deployment of [[Sustainable energy|low-carbon energy sources]] such as wind and solar, a [[Fossil fuel phase-out#Coal|phase-out of coal]], enhanced energy efficiency, [[reforestation]], and [[Forest protection|forest preservation]]. Adaptation consists of adjusting to actual or expected climate,<ref>{{harvnb|NASA, Mitigation and Adaptation|2020}}</ref> such as through improved [[Coastal protection|coastline protection]], better [[Emergency management|disaster management]], and the development of more resistant crops. Adaptation alone cannot avert the risk of "severe, widespread and irreversible" impacts.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR|2014|loc=SPM 3.2|p=17}}</ref>+ − Under the [[Paris Agreement]], nations agreed to keep warming "well under {{Convert|2.0|C-change}}" through mitigation efforts. However, under those pledges, global warming would reach about {{Convert|2.8|C-change}} by the end of the century, and current policies will result in about {{Convert|3.0|C-change}} of warming.<ref>{{harvnb|Climate Action Tracker|2019|p=1|ps=: Under current pledges, the world will warm by 2.8°C by the end of the century, close to twice the limit they agreed in Paris. Governments are even further from the Paris temperature limit in terms of their real-world action, which would see the temperature rise by 3°C.}}; {{harvnb|United Nations Environment Programme|2019|p=27}}.</ref> Limiting warming to {{Convert|1.5|C-change}} would require halving emissions by 2030, then reaching near-zero emissions by 2050.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch2|2018|p=95|ps=: In model pathways with no or limited overshoot of 1.5°C, global net anthropogenic {{CO2}} emissions decline by about 45% from 2010 levels by 2030 (40–60% interquartile range), reaching net zero around 2050 (2045–2055 interquartile range)}}; {{harvnb|Rogelj|Meinshausen|Schaeffer|Knutti|Riahi|2015}}.</ref>+ − {{TOC limit|3}}+ − == Terminology ==+ − Before the 1980s, when it was unclear whether warming by greenhouse gases would dominate aerosol-induced cooling, scientists often used the term ''inadvertent climate modification'' to refer to humankind's impact on the climate. In the 1980s, the terms ''global warming'' and ''climate change'' were introduced, the former referring only to increased surface warming, while the latter describes the full effect of greenhouse gases on the climate.<ref name="Conway 2008">{{harvnb|NASA, 5 December|2008}}.</ref> Global warming became the most popular term after NASA climate scientist [[James Hansen]] used it in his 1988 testimony in the [[U.S. Senate]].<ref name="history.aip.org" /> In the 2000s, the term ''climate change'' increased in popularity.<ref>{{harvnb|Joo|Kim|Do|Lineman|2015}}.</ref> Global warming usually refers to human-induced warming of the Earth system, whereas climate change can refer to natural as well as anthropogenic change.<ref>{{harvnb|NOAA, 17 June|2015}}: "when scientists or public leaders talk about global warming these days, they almost always mean human-caused warming"; {{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR Glossary|2014|p=120}}: "Climate change refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g., by using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcings such as modulations of the solar cycles, volcanic eruptions and persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use."</ref> The two terms are often used interchangeably.<ref>{{harvnb|NASA, 7 July|2020}}; {{Harvnb|Shaftel|2016|p=}}: "{{thinsp}}'Climate change' and 'global warming' are often used interchangeably but have distinct meanings. ... Global warming refers to the upward temperature trend across the entire Earth since the early 20th century ... Climate change refers to a broad range of global phenomena ...[which] include the increased temperature trends described by global warming."; {{harvnb|Associated Press, 22 September|2015}}: "The terms global warming and climate change can be used interchangeably. Climate change is more accurate scientifically to describe the various effects of greenhouse gases on the world because it includes extreme weather, storms and changes in rainfall patterns, ocean acidification and sea level.".</ref> − Various scientists, politicians and media figures have adopted the terms ''[[climate crisis]]'' or ''climate emergency'' to talk about climate change, while using ''global heating'' instead of global warming.<ref>{{harvnb|Hodder|Martin|2009}}; {{harvnb|BBC Science Focus Magazine, 3 February|2020}}.</ref> The policy editor-in-chief of ''[[The Guardian]]'' explained that they included this language in their editorial guidelines "to ensure that we are being scientifically precise, while also communicating clearly with readers on this very important issue".<ref>{{harvnb|The Guardian, 17 May|2019}}; {{harvnb|BBC Science Focus Magazine, 3 February|2020}}.</ref> [[Oxford English Dictionary|Oxford Dictionary]] chose ''climate emergency'' as its word of the year in 2019 and defines the term as "a situation in which urgent action is required to reduce or halt climate change and avoid potentially irreversible environmental damage resulting from it".<ref>{{harvnb|USA Today, 21 November|2019}}.</ref>+ + − + − {{Main|Temperature record of the last 2,000 years|Instrumental temperature record}}+ − + − + − Multiple independently produced instrumental datasets show that the climate system is warming,<ref>{{harvnb|EPA|2016|ps=: The U.S. Global Change Research Program, the National Academy of Sciences, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have each independently concluded that warming of the climate system in recent decades is "unequivocal". This conclusion is not drawn from any one source of data but is based on multiple lines of evidence, including three worldwide temperature datasets showing nearly identical warming trends as well as numerous other independent indicators of global warming (e.g. rising sea levels, shrinking Arctic sea ice).}}+ − + + + + − There was little net warming between the 18th century and the mid-19th century. [[Proxy (climate)|Climate proxies]], sources of climate information from natural archives such as trees and [[ice core]]s, show that natural variations offset the early effects of the [[Industrial Revolution]].<ref name="SR15 Ch1 p57">{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch1|2018|p=57|ps=: This report adopts the 51-year reference period, 1850–1900 inclusive, assessed as an approximation of pre-industrial levels in AR5 ... Temperatures rose by 0.0 °C–0.2 °C from 1720–1800 to 1850–1900}}; {{harvnb|Hawkins|Ortega|Suckling|Schurer|2017|p=1844}}.</ref> The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has adopted the baseline reference period 1850–1900 as an approximation of pre-industrial global mean surface temperature,<ref name="SR15 Ch1 p57" /> when thermometer records began to provide global coverage.<ref name="AR5 WG1 SPM p4-5">{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Summary for Policymakers|2013|pp=4–5|ps =: "Global-scale observations from the instrumental era began in the mid-19th century for temperature and other variables ... the period 1880 to 2012 ... multiple independently produced datasets exist."}}</ref>+ + + − Evidence of warming from air temperature measurements are reinforced with a wide range of other observations.<ref>{{harvnb|Kennedy|Thorne|Peterson|Ruedy|2010|p=S26}}. Figure 2.5.</ref> There has been an increase in the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation, melting of snow and land ice, and increased [[specific humidity|atmospheric humidity]].<ref>{{harvnb|Kennedy|Thorne|Peterson|Ruedy|2010|pp=S26, S59–S60}}; {{harvnb|USGCRP Chapter 1|2017|p=35}}.</ref> Flora and fauna are also behaving in a manner consistent with warming; for instance, plants are [[flowering]] earlier in spring.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG2 Ch1|2007|loc= Sec. 1.3.5.1}}, p. 99.</ref> Another key indicator is the cooling of the upper atmosphere, which demonstrates that greenhouse gases are trapping heat near the Earth's surface and preventing it from radiating into space.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/GlobalWarming|title=Global Warming|publisher=[[NASA JPL]]|access-date=11 September 2020|quote=Satellite measurements show warming in the troposphere but cooling in the stratosphere. This vertical pattern is consistent with global warming due to increasing greenhouse gases, but inconsistent with warming from natural causes.}}</ref>+ − Patterns of warming are independent of where greenhouse gases are emitted, because the gases persist long enough to diffuse across the planet; however, localized black carbon deposits on snow and ice do contribute to Arctic warming.<ref>{{harvnb|United States Environmental Protection Agency|2016|p=5|ps =: "Black carbon that is deposited on snow and ice darkens those surfaces and decreases their reflectivity (albedo). This is known as the snow/ice albedo effect. This effect results in the increased absorption of radiation that accelerates melting."}}</ref> Since the pre-industrial period, global average land temperatures have increased almost twice as fast as global average surface temperatures.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers|2019|p=7}}.</ref> This is because of the larger [[heat capacity]] of oceans, and because oceans lose more heat by [[evaporation]].<ref>{{Harvnb|Sutton|Dong|Gregory|2007}}.</ref> Over 90% of the additional energy in the climate system over the last 50 years has been stored in the ocean, warming it.<ref name="ocean heat absorption">+ − {{cite web − |title=Climate Change: Ocean Heat Content − |publisher=NOAA − |year=2018 − |url=https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-ocean-heat-content − |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190212110601/https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-ocean-heat-content − |archive-date=12 February 2019 − |url-status=live − |access-date=20 February 2019 − }}</ref> The remainder of the additional energy has melted ice and warmed the continents and the [[atmosphere]].<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch3|2013|p=257}}: "[[Sea level rise#Ocean heating|Ocean warming]] dominates the global energy change inventory. Warming of the ocean accounts for about 93% of the increase in the Earth's energy inventory between 1971 and 2010 (high confidence), with warming of the upper (0 to 700 m) ocean accounting for about 64% of the total.</ref> − The Northern Hemisphere and North Pole have warmed much faster than the South Pole and Southern Hemisphere. The Northern Hemisphere not only has much more land, but also more snow area and sea ice, because of how the land masses are arranged around the [[Arctic Ocean]]. As these surfaces flip from reflecting a lot of light to being dark after the ice has melted, they start [[albedo|absorbing more heat]]. The Southern Hemisphere already had little [[sea ice]] in summer before it started warming.<ref>{{harvnb|NOAA, 10 July|2011}}.</ref> Arctic temperatures have increased and are predicted to continue to increase during this century at over [[polar amplification|twice the rate of the rest of the world]].<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch12|2013|p=1062}}; {{harvnb|IPCC SROCC Ch3|2019|p=212}}.</ref> Melting of glaciers and ice sheets in the Arctic disrupts ocean circulation, including a weakened [[Gulf Stream]], causing increased warming in some areas.<ref>{{harvnb|NASA, 12 September|2018|p=}}.</ref>+ + + + + + − + − {{Main|Attribution of recent climate change}} − [[File:Radiative forcing 1750-2011.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|Contributors to climate change in 2011, as reported in the [[IPCC Fifth Assessment Report|fifth IPCC assessment report]]]] − The [[climate system]] experiences [[climate variability|various cycles]] on its own which can last for years (such as the [[El Niño–Southern Oscillation#On global warming|El Niño–Southern Oscillation]]), decades or even centuries.<ref>{{harvnb|Delworth|Zeng|2012|p=5}}; {{harvnb|Franzke|Barbosa|Blender|Fredriksen|2020}}.</ref> Other changes are caused by an imbalance of energy that is "external" to the climate system, but not always external to the Earth.<ref>{{Harvnb|National Research Council|2012|p=9}}.</ref> Examples of [[Climate system#External climate forcing|external forcings]] include changes in the composition of the atmosphere (e.g. increased concentrations of [[greenhouse gas]]es), [[solar luminosity]], [[volcano|volcanic]] eruptions, and [[orbital forcing|variations in the Earth's orbit]] around the Sun.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch10|2013|p=916}}.</ref>+ + − + + − === Greenhouse gases ===+ − {{Main|Greenhouse gas|Greenhouse effect|Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere}} − − The Earth absorbs [[sunlight]], then [[Radiative cooling|radiates it as heat]]. Some of this [[infrared]] radiation is absorbed by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and is trapped on Earth instead of escaping into space.<ref>{{Cite web − |title=The Causes of Climate Change − |author=NASA − |url=https://climate.nasa.gov/causes − |website=Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet − |access-date=8 May 2019 − |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190508000022/https://climate.nasa.gov/causes/ − |archive-date=8 May 2019 − |url-status=live − }}</ref> Before the Industrial Revolution, naturally-occurring amounts of greenhouse gases caused the air near the surface to be about {{convert|33|C-change|0}} warmer than it would have been in their absence.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG1 Ch1|2007|loc=FAQ1.1}}: "To emit 240 W m<sup>−2</sup>, a surface would have to have a temperature of around {{convert|−19|C|F}}. This is much colder than the conditions that actually exist at the Earth's surface (the global mean surface temperature is about 14 °C).</ref> [[Black body|Without the Earth's atmosphere]], the Earth's average temperature would be well below the freezing point of water.<ref>{{cite web − | title = What Is the Greenhouse Effect? − | author = ACS − | author-link = American Chemical Society − | url = https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/climatescience/climatesciencenarratives/what-is-the-greenhouse-effect.html − | access-date = 26 May 2019 − | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20190526110653/https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/climatescience/climatesciencenarratives/what-is-the-greenhouse-effect.html − | archive-date = 26 May 2019 − | url-status = live − }}</ref> While [[water vapour]] (~50%) and clouds (~25%) are the biggest contributors to the greenhouse effect, they increase as a function of temperature and are therefore considered [[feedback]]s. On the other hand, concentrations of gases such as {{CO2}} (~20%), ozone and nitrous oxide are not temperature-dependent, and are hence considered external forcings.<ref>{{harvnb|Schmidt|Ruedy|Miller|Lacis|2010}}; {{harvnb|USGCRP Climate Science Supplement|2014|p=742}}.</ref> Ozone acts as a greenhouse gas in the lowest layer of the atmosphere, the [[troposphere]] (as opposed to the stratospheric [[ozone layer]]). Furthermore, ozone is highly reactive and interacts with other greenhouse gases and aerosols.<ref>{{harvnb|Wang|Shugart|Lerdau|2017}}.</ref> − Human activity since the Industrial Revolution, mainly extracting and burning fossil fuels ([[coal]], [[Petroleum|oil]], and [[natural gas]]),<ref>{{Harvnb|The Guardian, 19 February|2020}}.</ref> has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. These elevated levels of gases such as {{CO2}}, methane, [[tropospheric ozone]], [[Chlorofluorocarbon|CFCs]], and [[nitrous oxide]] drive up temperatures via [[radiative forcing]]. In 2018, the [[Greenhouse gas#Anthropogenic greenhouse gases|concentrations]] of {{CO2}} and methane had increased by about 45% and 160%, respectively, since 1750.<ref>{{Harvnb|WMO|2020|p=5}}.</ref> These {{CO2}} levels are much higher than they have been at any time during the last 800,000 years, the period for which reliable data have been collected from air trapped in ice cores.<ref>{{harvnb|Siegenthaler|Stocker|Monnin|Lüthi|2005}}; {{harvnb|Lüthi|Le Floch|Bereiter|Blunier|2008}}.</ref> Less direct geological evidence indicates that {{CO2}} values have not been this high for millions of years.<ref>{{Harvnb|BBC, 10 May|2013}}.</ref>+ + + − + − Global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in 2018, excluding those from land use change, were [[Global warming potential|equivalent to]] 52 billion tonnes of {{CO2}}. Of these emissions, 72% was {{CO2}}, 19% was [[methane]], 6% was nitrous oxide, and 3% was [[fluorinated gases]].{{Sfn|Olivier|Peters|2019|pp=14, 16–17, 23}} {{CO2}} emissions primarily come from burning [[fossil fuel]]s to provide energy for [[transport]], manufacturing, [[Heating#Energy sources|heating]], and electricity.<ref>{{harvnb|Our World in Data, 18 September|2020}}.</ref> Additional {{CO2}} emissions come from [[deforestation and climate change|deforestation]] and [[Industrial processes#Chemical processes by main basic material|industrial processes]], which include the {{CO2}} released by the chemical reactions for [[Cement#Chemistry|making cement]], [[Blast furnace#Process engineering and chemistry|steel]], [[Hall–Héroult process|aluminum]], and [[haber process|fertilizer]].<ref>{{harvnb|Olivier|Peters|2019|p=17}}; {{harvnb|Our World in Data, 18 September|2020}}; {{harvnb|EPA|2020|ps=: Greenhouse gas emissions from industry primarily come from burning fossil fuels for energy, as well as greenhouse gas emissions from certain chemical reactions necessary to produce goods from raw materials}}; {{cite web|title=Redox, extraction of iron and transition metals|url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/guides/zv7f3k7/revision/2|quote=Hot air (oxygen) reacts with the coke (carbon) to produce carbon dioxide and heat energy to heat up the furnace. Removing impurities: The calcium carbonate in the limestone thermally decomposes to form calcium oxide. calcium carbonate → calcium oxide + carbon dioxide}}; {{harvnb|Kvande|2014|ps=: Carbon dioxide gas is formed at the anode, as the carbon anode is consumed upon reaction of carbon with the oxygen ions from the alumina (Al<sub>2</sub>O<sub>3</sub>). Formation of carbon dioxide is unavoidable as long as carbon anodes are used, and it is of great concern because CO<sub>2</sub> is a greenhouse gas}}</ref> Methane emissions [[enteric fermentation|come from livestock]], manure, [[Rice#Environmental impacts|rice cultivation]], landfills, wastewater, [[coal seam gas|coal mining]], as well as [[fugitive gas emissions|oil and gas extraction]].<ref>{{harvnb|EPA|2020}}; {{harvnb|Global Methane Initiative|2020|ps=: Estimated Global Anthropogenic Methane Emissions by Source, 2020: [[Enteric fermentation]] (27%), Manure Management (3%), Coal Mining (9%), [[Municipal Solid Waste]] (11%), Oil & Gas (24%), [[Wastewater]] (7%), [[Rice|Rice Cultivation]] (7%)}}.</ref> Nitrous oxide emissions largely come from the microbial decomposition of inorganic and organic [[fertilizer]].<ref>{{harvnb|Michigan State University|2014|ps=: Nitrous oxide is produced by microbes in almost all soils. In agriculture, N<sub>2</sub>O is emitted mainly from fertilized soils and animal wastes{{snd}}wherever nitrogen (N) is readily available.}}; {{harvnb|EPA|2019|ps=: Agricultural activities, such as fertilizer use, are the primary source of N<sub>2</sub>O emissions}}; {{harvnb|Davidson|2009|ps=: 2.0% of manure nitrogen and 2.5% of fertilizer nitrogen was converted to nitrous oxide between 1860 and 2005; these percentage contributions explain the entire pattern of increasing nitrous oxide concentrations over this period}}.</ref> From a [[Greenhouse gas emissions accounting#Measuring GHG emissions|production standpoint]], the primary sources of global greenhouse gas emissions are estimated as: electricity and heat (25%), agriculture and forestry (24%), industry and manufacturing (21%), transport (14%), and buildings (6%).<ref name=":2" />+ − Despite the contribution of deforestation to greenhouse gas emissions, the Earth's land surface, particularly its forests, remain a significant [[carbon sink]] for {{CO2}}. Natural processes, such as [[carbon fixation]] in the soil and photosynthesis, more than offset the greenhouse gas contributions from deforestation. The land-surface sink is estimated to remove about 29% of annual global {{CO2}} emissions.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers|2019|p=10}}.</ref> The ocean also serves as a significant carbon sink via a two-step process. First, {{CO2}} dissolves in the surface water. Afterwards, the ocean's [[Thermohaline circulation|overturning circulation]] distributes it deep into the ocean's interior, where it accumulates over time as part of the [[carbon cycle]]. Over the last two decades, the world's oceans have absorbed 20 to 30% of emitted {{CO2}}.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SROCC Ch5|2019|p=450}}.</ref>+ + + + + + + − + − + − + − In addition to their direct effects (scattering and absorbing solar radiation), aerosols have indirect effects on the [[Earth's energy budget|Earth's radiation budget]]. Sulfate aerosols act as [[cloud condensation nuclei]] and thus lead to clouds that have more and smaller cloud droplets. These clouds reflect solar radiation more efficiently than clouds with fewer and larger droplets.<ref>{{harvnb|Twomey|1977}}.</ref> This effect also causes droplets to be more uniform in size, which reduces the [[Cloud physics#Collision-coalescence|growth of raindrops]] and makes clouds more reflective to incoming sunlight.<ref>{{harvnb|Albrecht|1989}}.</ref> Indirect effects of aerosols are the largest uncertainty in radiative forcing.<ref>{{Harvnb|USGCRP Chapter 2|2017|p=78}}.</ref> − While aerosols typically limit global warming by reflecting sunlight, [[black carbon]] in [[soot]] that falls on snow or ice can contribute to global warming. Not only does this increase the absorption of sunlight, it also increases melting and sea-level rise.<ref>{{harvnb|Ramanathan|Carmichael|2008}}; {{harvnb|RIVM|2016}}.</ref> Limiting new black carbon deposits in the Arctic could reduce global warming by {{convert|0.2|C-change}} by 2050.<ref>{{harvnb|Sand|Berntsen|von Salzen|Flanner|2015}}.</ref>+ + − + − + − Humans change the Earth's surface mainly to create more [[agricultural land]]. Today, agriculture takes up 34% of Earth's land area, while 26% is forests, and 30% is uninhabitable (glaciers, deserts, etc.).<ref>{{harvnb|Ritchie|Roser|2018}}</ref> The amount of forested land continues to decrease, largely due to conversion to cropland in the tropics.<ref>{{harvnb|The Sustainability Consortium, 13 September|2018}}; {{harvnb|UN FAO|2016|p=18}}.</ref> This [[deforestation]] is the most significant aspect of land surface change affecting global warming. The main causes of deforestation are: permanent land-use change from forest to agricultural land producing products such as beef and palm oil (27%), logging to produce forestry/forest products (26%), short term [[shifting cultivation]] (24%), and wildfires (23%).<ref>{{harvnb|Curtis|Slay|Harris|Tyukavina|2018}}.</ref>+ − In addition to affecting greenhouse gas concentrations, land-use changes affect global warming through a variety of other chemical and physical mechanisms. Changing the type of vegetation in a region affects the local temperature, by changing how much of the sunlight gets reflected back into space ([[albedo]]), and how much [[evaporative cooling|heat is lost by evaporation]]. For instance, the change from a dark [[forest]] to grassland makes the surface lighter, causing it to reflect more sunlight. Deforestation can also contribute to changing temperatures by affecting the release of aerosols and other chemical compounds that influence clouds, and by changing wind patterns.<ref name="Seymour 2019">{{harvnb|World Resources Institute, 8 December|2019}}.</ref> In tropic and temperate areas the net effect is to produce a significant warming, while at latitudes closer to the poles a gain of albedo (as forest is replaced by snow cover) leads to an overall cooling effect.<ref name="Seymour 2019" /> Globally, these effects are estimated to have led to a slight cooling, dominated by an increase in surface albedo.<ref name="IPCC Special Report: Climate change and Land p2-54">{{Harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Ch2|2019|pp=|ps=: "The global biophysical cooling alone has been estimated by a larger range of climate models and is −0.10 ± 0.14°C; it ranges from −0.57°C to +0.06°C ... This cooling is essentially dominated by increases in surface albedo: historical land cover changes have generally led to a dominant brightening of land"|p=172}}.</ref>+ − + − === Solar and volcanic activity ===+ − + − Physical climate models are unable to reproduce the rapid warming observed in recent decades when taking into account only variations in solar output and volcanic activity.<ref>{{harvnb|Schmidt|Shindell|Tsigaridis|2014}}; {{harvnb|Fyfe|Meehl|England|Mann|2016}}.</ref> As the Sun is the Earth's primary energy source, changes in incoming sunlight directly affect the climate system.<ref name=USGCRP_2017_ch2>{{harvnb|USGCRP Chapter 2|2017|p=78}}.</ref> [[solar variation|Solar irradiance]] has been measured directly by [[satellite]]s,<ref>{{Harvnb|National Research Council|2008|p=6}}.</ref> and indirect measurements are available from the early 1600s.<ref name=USGCRP_2017_ch2 /> There has been no upward trend in the amount of the Sun's energy reaching the Earth.<ref>{{Cite web+ − |title=Is the Sun causing global warming? − |website=Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet − |url=https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/14/is-the-sun-causing-global-warming − |access-date=10 May 2019 − |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190505160051/https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/14/is-the-sun-causing-global-warming/ − |archive-date=5 May 2019 − |url-status=live − }}</ref> Further evidence for greenhouse gases being the cause of recent climate change come from measurements showing the warming of the lower atmosphere (the [[troposphere]]), coupled with the cooling of the upper atmosphere (the [[stratosphere]]).<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG1 Ch9|2007|pp=702–703}}; {{harvnb|Randel|Shine|Austin|Barnett|2009}}.</ref> If solar variations were responsible for the observed warming, warming of both the troposphere and the stratosphere would be expected, but that has not been the case.<ref name=":1">{{Harvnb|USGCRP|2009|p=20}}.</ref> − − − − === Climate change feedback{{anchor|Feedback}} === − {{Main|Climate change feedback|Climate sensitivity}}[[File:NORTH POLE Ice (19626661335).jpg|thumb|Sea ice reflects 50% to 70% of incoming solar radiation while the dark ocean surface only reflects 6%, so melting sea ice is a self-reinforcing feedback.<ref> − {{cite web − |url=https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/seaice/processes/albedo.html − |title=Thermodynamics: Albedo − |work=NSIDC − |access-date=10 October 2017 − |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20171011021602/https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/seaice/processes/albedo.html − |archive-date=11 October 2017 − |url-status=live − }}</ref>]] − − The response of the climate system to an initial forcing is modified by [[feedback]]s: increased by [[self-reinforcing feedback]]s and reduced by [[balancing feedback]]s.<ref> − {{cite web − |title = The study of Earth as an integrated system − |publisher=Earth Science Communications Team at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory / California Institute of Technology − |year=2013 − |series = Vitals Signs of the Planet − |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190226190002/https://climate.nasa.gov/nasa_science/science/ − |archive-date=26 February 2019 − |url=https://climate.nasa.gov/nasa_science/science/ − |url-status=live − }}.</ref> The main reinforcing feedbacks are the [[Greenhouse gas#water-vapour feedback|water-vapour feedback]], the [[ice–albedo feedback]], and probably the net effect of clouds.{{sfn|USGCRP Chapter 2|2017|pp=89–91}} The primary balancing feedback to global temperature change is [[radiative cooling]] to space as [[infrared radiation]] in response to rising surface temperature.{{sfn|USGCRP Chapter 2|2017|pp=89–90}} Uncertainty over feedbacks is the major reason why different climate models project different magnitudes of warming for a given amount of emissions.<ref>{{harvnb|Wolff|Shepherd|Shuckburgh|Watson|2015|p=}}: "the nature and magnitude of these feedbacks are the principal cause of uncertainty in the response of Earth's climate (over multi-decadal and longer periods) to a particular emissions scenario or greenhouse gas concentration pathway."</ref> − − As air gets warmer, [[Relative humidity|it can hold more moisture]]. After an initial warming due to emissions of greenhouse gases, the atmosphere will hold more water. As water vapour is a potent greenhouse gas, this further heats the atmosphere.{{sfn|USGCRP Chapter 2|2017|pp=89–91}} If cloud cover increases, more sunlight will be reflected back into space, cooling the planet. If clouds become more high and thin, they act as an insulator, reflecting heat from below back downwards and warming the planet.{{sfn|Williams|Ceppi|Katavouta|2020}} Overall, the net cloud feedback over the industrial era has probably exacerbated temperature rise.<ref>{{harvnb|USGCRP Chapter 2|2017|p=90}}.</ref> The reduction of snow cover and sea ice in the Arctic reduces the albedo of the Earth's surface.<ref>{{harvnb|NASA, 28 May|2013}}.</ref> More of the Sun's energy is now absorbed in these regions, contributing to [[polar amplification|Arctic amplification]], which has caused Arctic temperatures to increase at more than twice the rate of the rest of the world.<ref>{{harvnb|Cohen|Screen|Furtado|Barlow|2014}}.</ref> Arctic amplification is also melting [[permafrost]], which releases methane and {{CO2}} into the atmosphere.<ref name="Turetsky 2019">{{harvnb|Turetsky|Abbott|Jones|Anthony|2019}}.</ref> − − Around half of human-caused {{CO2}} emissions have been absorbed by land plants and by the oceans.<ref>{{harvnb|NASA, 16 June|2011|p=}}: "So far, land plants and the ocean have taken up about 55 percent of the extra carbon people have put into the atmosphere while about 45 percent has stayed in the atmosphere. Eventually, the land and oceans will take up most of the extra carbon dioxide, but as much as 20 percent may remain in the atmosphere for many thousands of years."</ref> On land, elevated {{CO2}} and an extended growing season have stimulated plant growth. Climate change also increases droughts and heat waves that inhibit plant growth, which makes it uncertain that this carbon sink will persist in the future.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Ch2|2019|p=|pp=133, 144}}.</ref> Soils contain large quantities of carbon and [[Soil carbon feedback|may release some when they heat up]].<ref>{{harvnb|Melillo|Frey|DeAngelis|Werner|2017}}: Our first-order estimate of a warming-induced loss of 190 Pg of soil carbon over the 21st century is equivalent to the past two decades of carbon emissions from fossil fuel burning.</ref> As more {{CO2}} and heat are absorbed by the ocean, it acidifies, its circulation changes and [[phytoplankton]] takes up less carbon, decreasing the rate at which the ocean absorbs atmospheric carbon.{{sfn|USGCRP Chapter 2|2017|pp=93–95}} Climate change can also increase methane emissions from [[wetland]]s, marine and freshwater systems, and permafrost.{{sfn|Dean|Middelburg|Röckmann|Aerts|2018}} − − == Future warming and the carbon budget == − {{Further|Carbon budget|Climate model}} − [[File:Projected Change in Temperatures by 2090.svg|upright=1.35|thumb|right|Average climate model projections for 2081–2100 relative to 1986–2005, under low and high emission scenarios]] − Future warming depends on the [[Climate sensitivity|strengths of climate feedbacks]] and on emissions of greenhouse gases.<ref>{{harvnb|Wolff|Shepherd|Shuckburgh|Watson|2015|p=}}</ref> The former are often estimated using various [[climate model]]s, developed by multiple scientific institutions.<ref>{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 15 January|2018|loc= [https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-how-do-climate-models-work#who "Who does climate modelling around the world?"]}}.</ref> A climate model is a representation of the physical, chemical, and biological processes that affect the climate system.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR Glossary|2014|p=120}}.</ref> Models also include changes in the Earth's orbit, historical changes in the Sun's activity, and volcanic forcing.<ref>{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 15 January|2018|loc= [https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-how-do-climate-models-work#types "What are the different types of climate models?"]}}.</ref> Computer models attempt to reproduce and predict the circulation of the oceans, the annual cycle of the seasons, and the flows of carbon between the land surface and the atmosphere.<ref>{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 15 January|2018|loc= [https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-how-do-climate-models-work#what "What is a climate model?"]}}.</ref> Models project different future temperature rises for given emissions of greenhouse gases; they also do not fully agree on the strength of different [[#Feedback|feedbacks on climate sensitivity]] and magnitude of [[Climate inertia|inertia of the climate system]].<ref>{{harvnb|Stott|Kettleborough|2002}}.</ref> − − The physical realism of models is tested by examining their ability to simulate contemporary or past climates.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG1 Ch8|2007}}, FAQ 8.1.</ref> Past models have underestimated the rate of [[Arctic shrinkage]]<ref>{{harvnb|Stroeve|Holland|Meier|Scambos|2007}}; {{harvnb|National Geographic, 13 August|2019}}.</ref> and underestimated the rate of precipitation increase.<ref>{{harvnb|Liepert|Previdi|2009}}.</ref> Sea level rise since 1990 was underestimated in older models, but more recent models agree well with observations.<ref>{{harvnb|Rahmstorf|Cazenave|Church|Hansen|2007}}; − {{harvnb|Mitchum|Masters|Hamlington|Fasullo|2018}}.</ref> The 2017 United States-published [[National Climate Assessment]] notes that "climate models may still be underestimating or missing relevant feedback processes".<ref>{{harvnb|USGCRP Chapter 15|2017}}.</ref> − − Various [[Representative Concentration Pathway]]s (RCPs) can be used as input for climate models: "a stringent mitigation scenario (RCP2.6), two intermediate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP6.0) and one scenario with very high [greenhouse gas] emissions (RCP8.5)".<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR Summary for Policymakers|2014|loc=Sec. 2.1}}.</ref> RCPs only look at concentrations of greenhouse gases, and so do not include the response of the carbon cycle.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Technical Summary|2013|pp=79–80}}.</ref> Climate model projections summarized in the [[IPCC Fifth Assessment Report]] indicate that, during the 21st century, the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further {{convert|0.3|to|1.7|C-change|1}} in a moderate scenario, or as much as {{convert|2.6|to|4.8|C-change|1}} in an extreme scenario, depending on the rate of future greenhouse gas emissions and on climate feedback effects.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Technical Summary|2013|p=57}}.</ref> − − [[File:All forcing agents CO2 equivalent concentration.svg|upright=1.35|thumb|left|Four possible future concentration pathways, including {{CO2}} and other gases' {{CO2}}-equivalents]] − − A [[Integrated assessment modelling|subset of climate models]] add societal factors to a simple physical climate model. These models simulate how population, [[economic growth]], and energy use affect{{snd}}and interact with{{snd}}the physical climate. With this information, these models can produce scenarios of how greenhouse gas emissions may vary in the future. This output is then used as input for physical climate models to generate climate change projections.<ref>{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 15 January|2018|loc=[https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-how-do-climate-models-work#inout "What are the inputs and outputs for a climate model?"]}}.</ref> In some scenarios emissions continue to rise over the century, while others have reduced emissions.<ref>{{harvnb|Riahi|van Vuuren|Kriegler|Edmonds|2017}}; {{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 19 April|2018}}.</ref> Fossil fuel resources are too abundant for shortages to be relied on to limit carbon emissions in the 21st century.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG3 Ch5|2014|pp=379–380}}.</ref> Emissions scenarios can be combined with modelling of the carbon cycle to predict how atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases might change in the future.<ref>{{harvnb|Matthews|Gillett|Stott|Zickfeld|2009}}.</ref> According to these combined models, by 2100 the atmospheric concentration of CO<sub>2</sub> could be as low as 380 or as high as 1400 ppm, depending on the [[Shared Socioeconomic Pathways|socioeconomic scenario]] and the mitigation scenario.<ref>{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 19 April|2018}}; {{harvnb|Meinshausen|2019|p=462}}.</ref> − − The remaining carbon [[emissions budget]] is determined by modelling the carbon cycle and the climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases.<ref>{{harvnb|Rogelj|Forster|Kriegler|Smith|2019}}.</ref> According to the IPCC, global warming can be kept below {{Convert|1.5|C-change||abbr=}} with a two-thirds chance if emissions after 2018 do not exceed 420 or 570 gigatonnes of {{CO2}}, depending on exactly how the global temperature is defined. This amount corresponds to 10 to 13 years of current emissions. There are high uncertainties about the budget; for instance, it may be 100 gigatonnes of {{CO2}} smaller due to methane release from permafrost and wetlands.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Summary for Policymakers|2018|p=12}}.</ref> − − == Impacts == − {{Main|Effects of climate change}} − − === Physical environment === − {{Main|Physical impacts of climate change|}} − [[File:Sea_level_history_and_projections.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|right|Historical sea level reconstruction and projections up to 2100 published in 2017 by the U.S. Global Change Research Program<ref>{{harvnb|NOAA|2017}}.</ref>]] − The environmental effects of climate change are broad and far-reaching, affecting oceans, ice, and weather. Changes may occur gradually or rapidly. Evidence for these effects comes from studying climate change in the past, from modelling, and from modern observations.<ref>{{harvnb|Hansen|Sato|Hearty|Ruedy|2016}}; {{harvnb|Smithsonian, 26 June|2016}}.</ref> Since the 1950s, [[drought]]s and [[heat wave]]s have appeared simultaneously with increasing frequency.<ref>{{harvnb|USGCRP Chapter 15|2017|p=415}}.</ref> Extremely wet or dry events within the [[monsoon]] period have increased in India and East Asia.<ref>{{harvnb|Scientific American, 29 April|2014}}; {{harvnb|Burke|Stott|2017}}.</ref> The maximum rainfall and wind speed from [[Tropical cyclones and climate change|hurricanes and typhoons is likely increasing]].<ref name=":0">{{Harvnb|USGCRP Chapter 9|2017|p=260}}.</ref> − − [[Sea level rise|Global sea level is rising]] as a consequence of [[Retreat of glaciers since 1850|glacial melt]], melt of the [[ice sheet]]s in [[Greenland ice sheet|Greenland]] and [[Antarctic ice sheet|Antarctica]], and thermal expansion. Between 1993 and 2017, the rise increased over time, averaging 3.1 ± 0.3 mm per year.<ref>{{harvnb|WCRP Global Sea Level Budget Group|2018}}.</ref> Over the 21st century, the IPCC projects that in a very high emissions scenario the sea level could rise by 61–110 cm.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC SROCC Ch4|2019|p=324}}: GMSL (global mean sea level, red) will rise between 0.43 m (0.29–0.59 m, likely range) (RCP2.6) and 0.84 m (0.61–1.10 m, likely range) (RCP8.5) by 2100 (medium confidence) relative to 1986–2005.</ref> Increased ocean warmth is undermining and threatening to unplug Antarctic glacier outlets, risking a large melt of the ice sheet<ref>{{harvnb|DeConto|Pollard|2016}}.</ref> and the possibility of a 2-meter sea level rise by 2100 under high emissions.{{sfn|Bamber|Oppenheimer|Kopp|Aspinall|2019|p=}} − − Climate change has led to decades of [[Arctic sea ice decline|shrinking and thinning of the Arctic sea ice]], making it vulnerable to atmospheric anomalies.<ref>{{harvnb|Zhang|Lindsay|Steele|Schweiger|2008}}.</ref> Projections of declines in Arctic sea ice vary.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch11|2013|p=995}}; {{Harvnb|Alkama|Koffi|Vavrus|Diehl|2020}}.</ref> While ice-free summers are expected to be rare at {{convert|1.5|C-change}} degrees of warming, they are set to occur once every three to ten years at a warming level of {{convert|2.0|C-change}}.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers|2019|page=18}}.</ref> Higher atmospheric {{CO2}} concentrations have led to changes in [[ocean chemistry]]. An increase in dissolved {{CO2}} is causing [[ocean acidification|oceans to acidify]].<ref>{{Harvnb|Doney|Fabry|Feely|Kleypas|2009}}.</ref> In addition, [[ocean deoxygenation|oxygen levels are decreasing]] as oxygen is less soluble in warmer water,<ref>{{harvnb|Deutsch|Brix|Ito|Frenzel|2011}}</ref> with [[Dead zone (ecology)|hypoxic dead zones]] expanding as a result of algal blooms stimulated by higher temperatures, higher {{CO2}} levels, ocean deoxygenation, and [[eutrophication]].<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SROCC Ch5|2019|p=510}}; {{cite web |title=Climate Change and Harmful Algal Blooms |url=https://www.epa.gov/nutrientpollution/climate-change-and-harmful-algal-blooms |publisher=EPA |access-date=11 September 2020}}</ref> − − ==== Tipping points and long-term impacts ==== − The greater the amount of global warming, the greater the risk of passing through ‘[[Tipping points in the climate system|tipping points]]’, thresholds beyond which certain impacts can no longer be avoided even if temperatures are reduced.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch3|2018|p=283}}.</ref> An example is the collapse of [[Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet|West Antarctic]] and Greenland ice sheets, where a certain temperature rise commits an ice sheet to melt, although the time scale required is uncertain and depends on future warming.<ref name=NESSC2018>{{cite web|url=https://www.nessc.nl/tipping-points-ice-sheets/|title=Tipping points in Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets|date=12 November 2018|website=NESSC|access-date=25 February 2019}}</ref> Some large-scale changes could occur [[abrupt climate change|over a short time period]], such as a [[Shutdown of thermohaline circulation|collapse]] of the [[Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation]],<ref name="ccsp abrupt climate change">{{harvnb|Clark|Weaver|Brook|Cook|2008}}.</ref> which would trigger major climate changes in the North Atlantic, Europe, and North America.<ref>{{harvnb|Liu|Xie|Liu|Zhu|2017}}.</ref> − − The [[long-term effects of climate change]] include further ice melt, ocean warming, sea level rise, and ocean acidification. On the timescale of centuries to millennia, the magnitude of climate change will be determined primarily by anthropogenic {{CO2}} emissions.<ref name="long-term effects of global warming">{{harvnb|National Research Council|2011|p=[http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=12877&page=14 14]}}; {{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch12|2013|pp=88–89|loc = FAQ 12.3}}.</ref> This is due to {{CO2}}'s long atmospheric lifetime.<ref name="long-term effects of global warming" /> Oceanic {{CO2}} uptake is slow enough that ocean acidification will continue for hundreds to thousands of years.{{Sfn|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch12|2013|p=1112}} These emissions are estimated to have prolonged the current [[interglacial]] period by at least 100,000 years.<ref>{{harvnb|Crucifix|2016}}</ref> Sea level rise will continue over many centuries, with an estimated rise of {{convert|2.3|m/C|ft/F}} after 2000 years.<ref>{{harvnb|Smith|Schneider|Oppenheimer|Yohe|2009}}; {{harvnb|Levermann|Clark|Marzeion|Milne|2013}}.</ref> − − ===Nature and wildlife=== − <!-- Warning: Do not change the above title without also changing places where the gallery below is transcluded (this article summary, and effects of climate change article) --> − {{Main||Climate change and ecosystems}} − Recent warming has driven many terrestrial and freshwater species poleward and towards higher [[altitudes]].<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch3|2018|p=218}}.</ref> Higher atmospheric {{CO2}} levels and an extended growing season have resulted in global greening, whereas heatwaves and drought have reduced [[ecosystem]] productivity in some regions. The future balance of these opposing effects is unclear.{{Sfn|IPCC SRCCL Ch2|2019|p=133}} Climate change has contributed to the expansion of drier climate zones, such as the [[Desertification|expansion of deserts]] in the [[subtropics]].<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers|2019|p=7}}; {{harvnb|Zeng|Yoon|2009}}.</ref> The size and speed of global warming is making [[Ecological threshold|abrupt changes in ecosystems]] more likely.{{Sfn|Turner|Calder|Cumming|Hughes|2020|p=1}} Overall, it is expected that climate change will result in the [[extinction]] of many species.{{Sfn|Urban|2015|p=}} − − The oceans have heated more slowly than the land, but plants and animals in the ocean have migrated towards the colder poles faster than species on land.<ref>{{harvnb|Poloczanska|Brown|Sydeman|Kiessling|2013}}; {{harvnb|Lenoir|Bertrand|Comte|Bourgeaud|2020}}.</ref> Just as on land, heat waves in the ocean occur more frequently due to climate change, with harmful effects found on a wide range of organisms such as corals, [[kelp]], and [[seabirds]].<ref>{{harvnb|Smale|Wernberg|Oliver|Thomsen|2019}}.</ref> Ocean acidification is impacting organisms who [[Biomineralization|produce shells and skeletons]], such as mussels and barnacles, and [[Coral reef|coral reefs]]; coral reefs have seen [[Coral bleaching|extensive bleaching]] after heat waves.{{Sfn|IPCC SROCC Summary for Policymakers|2019|p=13}} Harmful [[Algal bloom|algae bloom]] enhanced by climate change and eutrophication cause anoxia, disruption of [[food web]]s and massive large-scale mortality of marine life.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SROCC Ch5|2019|p=510}}</ref> Coastal ecosystems are under particular stress, with almost half of wetlands having disappeared as a consequence of climate change and other human impacts.{{Sfn|IPCC SROCC Ch5|2019|p=451}} − − {| class="center toccolours" − |+ '''Climate change impacts on the environment''' − |<gallery mode="packed" heights="120" style="line-height:120%"> − File:Bleachedcoral.jpg|alt=Underwater photograph of branching coral that is bleached white|[[Ecological collapse]]. Bleaching has damaged the [[Great Barrier Reef]] and threatens reefs worldwide.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://sos.noaa.gov/datasets/coral-reef-risk-outlook/|title=Coral Reef Risk Outlook|access-date=4 April 2020|publisher=[[National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration]]|quote=At present, local human activities, coupled with past thermal stress, threaten an estimated 75 percent of the world's reefs. By 2030, estimates predict more than 90% of the world's reefs will be threatened by local human activities, warming, and acidification, with nearly 60% facing high, very high, or critical threat levels.}}</ref> − File:Orroral Valley Fire viewed from Tuggeranong January 2020.jpg|alt=Photograph of evening in a valley settlement. The skyline in the hills beyond is lit up red from the fires.|[[Extreme weather]]. Drought and high temperatures worsened the [[2019–20 Australian bushfire season#Climate change|2020 bushfires in Australia]].<ref>{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 7 January|2020}}.</ref> − File:National Park Service Thawing permafrost (27759123542).jpg|alt=The green landscape is interrupted by a huge muddy scar where the ground has subsided.|[[Climate change in the Arctic|Arctic warming]]. [[Permafrost#Climate change effects|Permafrost thaws]] undermine infrastructure and [[Arctic methane emissions|release methane]], a greenhouse gas.<ref name="Turetsky 2019"/> − File:Endangered arctic - starving polar bear edit.jpg|alt=An emaciated polar bear stands atop the remains of a melting ice floe.|[[Habitat destruction]]. Many arctic animals rely on sea ice, which has been disappearing in a warming Arctic.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch28|2014|p=1596|ps=: "Within 50 to 70 years, loss of hunting habitats may lead to elimination of polar bears from seasonally ice-covered areas, where two-thirds of their world population currently live."}}</ref> − File:Mountain Pine Beetle damage in the Fraser Experimental Forest 2007.jpg|alt=Photograph of a large area of forest. The green trees are interspersed with large patches of damaged or dead trees turning purple-brown and light red.|[[Climate change and invasive species|Pest propagation]]. Mild winters allow more [[mountain pine beetle|pine beetles]] to survive to kill large swaths of forest.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.nps.gov/romo/learn/nature/climatechange.htm|title=What a changing climate means for Rocky Mountain National Park|publisher=[[National Park Service]]|access-date=9 April 2020}}</ref> − </gallery> − |- − |} − − === Humans === − <!-- Warning: Do not change the above title without also changing places where the gallery below is transcluded (this article summary, and effects of climate change article) --> − {{Main|Effects of climate change on humans}} − {{Further|Effects of climate change on human health|Climate security|Economics of climate change|Climate change and agriculture|}} − The [[effects of climate change on humans]], mostly due to warming and shifts in [[precipitation]], have been detected worldwide. [[Regional effects of climate change|Regional impacts of climate change]] are now observable on all continents and across ocean regions,<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch18|2014|pp=983, 1008}}.</ref> with low-latitude, [[Developing countries|less developed areas]] facing the greatest risk.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch19|2014|p=1077}}.</ref> Continued emission of greenhouse gases will lead to further warming and long-lasting changes in the climate system, with potentially “severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts” for both people and ecosystems.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR Summary for Policymakers|2014|loc=SPM 2|p=8}}</ref> Climate change risks are unevenly distributed, but are generally greater for disadvantaged people in developing and developed countries.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR Summary for Policymakers|2014|loc=SPM 2.3|p=13}}</ref> − − ==== Food and health ==== − Health impacts include both the direct effects of extreme weather, leading to injury and loss of life,<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch11|2014|pp=720–723}}.</ref> as well as indirect effects, such as [[undernutrition]] brought on by [[crop failure]]s.<ref>{{harvnb|Costello|Abbas|Allen|Ball|2009}}; {{harvnb|Watts|Adger|Agnolucci|Blackstock|2015}}; {{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch11|2014|p=713}}</ref> Various [[infectious diseases]] are more easily transmitted in a warmer climate, such as [[dengue fever]], which affects children most severely, and [[malaria]].{{Sfn|Watts|Amann|Arnell|Ayeb-Karlsson|2019|pp=1836, 1848}} Young children are the most vulnerable to food shortages, and together with older people, to extreme heat.{{Sfn|Watts|Amann|Arnell|Ayeb-Karlsson|2019|p=|pp=1841, 1847}} The World Health Organization (WHO) has estimated that between 2030 and 2050, climate change is expected to cause approximately 250,000 additional deaths per year from heat exposure in elderly people, increases in diarrheal disease, malaria, dengue, [[coastal flooding]], and childhood undernutrition.<ref>{{harvnb|WHO|2014}}</ref> Over 500,000 additional adult deaths are projected yearly by 2050 due to reductions in food availability and quality.<ref>{{harvnb|Springmann|Mason-D’Croz|Robinson|Garnett|2016|p=2}}; {{harvnb|Haines|Ebi|2019}}</ref> Other major health risks associated with climate change include air and water quality.<ref>{{harvnb|Haines|Ebi|2019|loc=Figure 3}}; {{harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR|2014|loc=SPM 2.3|p=15}}</ref> The WHO has classified human health impacts from climate change as the greatest threat to global health in the 21st century.<ref name="WHO, Nov 2015" /> − − Climate change is affecting [[food security]] and has caused reduction in global mean yields of maize, wheat, and soybeans between 1981 and 2010.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Ch5|2019|p=451}}.</ref> Future warming could further reduce global yields of major crops.<ref>{{harvnb|Zhao|Liu|Piao|Wang|2017}}; {{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Ch5|2019|p=439}}</ref> [[crop productivity|Crop production]] will probably be negatively affected in low-latitude countries, while effects at northern latitudes may be positive or negative.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch7|2014|p=488}}</ref> Up to an additional 183 million people worldwide, particularly those with lower incomes, are at risk of [[hunger]] as a consequence of these impacts.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Ch5|2019|p=462}}</ref> The effects of warming on the oceans also impact fish stocks, with a global decline in the maximum catch potential. Only polar stocks are showing an increased potential.{{sfn|IPCC SROCC Ch5|2019|p=503}} Regions dependent on glacier water, regions that are already dry, and small islands are also at increased risk of water stress due to climate change.<ref>{{harvnb|Holding|Allen|Foster|Hsieh|2016}}; {{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch3|2014|pp=232–233}}.</ref> − − ==== Livelihoods ==== − Economic damages due to climate change have been underestimated, and may be severe, with the probability of disastrous [[Black swan theory|tail-risk events]] being nontrivial.<ref>{{harvnb|DeFries|Edenhofer|Halliday|Heal|2019|p=3}}; {{harvnb|Krogstrup|Oman|2019|p=10}}.</ref> Climate change has likely already increased global economic inequality, and is projected to continue doing so.<ref>{{harvnb|Diffenbaugh|Burke|2019}}; {{harvnb|The Guardian, 26 January|2015}}; {{harvnb|Burke|Davis|Diffenbaugh|2018}}.</ref> Most of the severe impacts are expected [[Climate change in Africa|in sub-Saharan Africa]] and South-East Asia, where existing poverty is already exacerbated.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch13|2014|pp=796–797}}.</ref> The [[World Bank]] estimates that climate change could drive over 120 million people into poverty by 2030. − {{Sfn|Hallegatte|Bangalore|Bonzanigo|Fay|2016|p=12}} Current inequalities between men and women, between rich and poor, and between different ethnicities have been observed to worsen as a consequence of climate variability and climate change.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch13|2014|p=796}}.</ref> An expert elicitation concluded that the role of climate change in [[armed conflict]] has been small compared to factors such as socio-economic inequality and state capabilities, but that future warming will bring increasing risks.{{Sfn|Mach|Kraan|Adger|Buhaug|2019|p=}} − − Low-lying islands and coastal communities are threatened through hazards posed by sea level rise, such as flooding and permanent submergence.{{Sfn|IPCC SROCC Ch4|2019|p=328}} This could lead to [[statelessness]] for populations in island nations, such as the [[Maldives]] and [[Tuvalu]].<ref>{{harvnb|UNHCR|2011|p=3}}.</ref> In some regions, rise in temperature and humidity may also be too severe for humans to adapt to.{{sfn|Matthews|2018|p=399}} With worst-case climate change, models project that almost one-third of humanity might live in extremely hot and uninhabitable climates, similar to current climate found mainly in the Sahara.<ref>{{harvnb|Balsari|Dresser|Leaning|2020}}</ref> These factors, plus weather extremes, can drive [[Environmental migrant|environmental migration]], both within and between countries.<ref>{{harvnb|Cattaneo|Beine|Fröhlich|Kniveton|2019}}; {{harvnb|UN Environment, 25 October|2018}}.</ref> Up to 1 billion people could be displaced due to climate change by 2050, with 200 million being the most repeated prediction;{{sfn|Brown|2008}} however, these numbers have been described as an upper bound.<ref name="Kaczan_et_al_2020"> − {{cite journal |last1=Kaczan |first1=David J.|last2=Orgill-Meyer |first2=Jennifer |date=2020 |title=The impact of climate change on migration: a synthesis of recent empirical insights |url=https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-019-02560-0 |journal=Climatic Change |volume= 158|issue=3–4 |pages=281–300 |doi=10.1007/s10584-019-02560-0 |bibcode=2020ClCh..158..281K|s2cid=207988694|access-date=8 October 2020 }}</ref> − − {| class="center toccolours" − |+ '''Climate change impacts on people''' − |<gallery mode="packed" heights="120" style="line-height:120%"> − File:Village Telly in Mali.jpg|[[Environmental migrant|Environmental migration]]. Sparser rainfall leads to [[desertification]] that harms agriculture and can displace populations. Shown: Telly, Mali.<ref>{{harvnb|Serdeczny|Adams|Baarsch|Coumou|2016}}.</ref> − File:Corn shows the affect of drought.jpg|[[Climate change and agriculture|Agricultural changes]]. Droughts, rising temperatures, and extreme weather negatively impact agriculture. Shown: Texas, US.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Ch5|2019|pp=439, 464}}.</ref> − File:Acqua alta in Piazza San Marco-original.jpg|[[Tidal flooding]]. Sea-level rise increases flooding in low-lying coastal regions. Shown: [[Venice#Flooding|Venice, Italy]].<ref name="NOAAnuisance">{{cite web|url=http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/nuisance-flooding.html |title=What is nuisance flooding? |author=[[National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration]] |access-date=April 8, 2020}}</ref> − File:US Navy 071120-M-8966H-005 An aerial view over southern Bangladesh reveals extensive flooding as a result of Cyclone Sidr.jpg|[[Tropical cyclones and climate change|Storm intensification]]. Bangladesh after [[Cyclone Sidr]] is an example of catastrophic flooding from increased rainfall.<ref>{{harvnb|Kabir|Khan|Ball|Caldwell|2016}}.</ref> − File:The heat is on ESA19461898.jpeg|Heat wave intensification. Events like the [[June 2019 European heat wave]] are becoming more common.<ref>{{harvnb|Van Oldenborgh|Philip|Kew|Vautard|2019}}.</ref> − </gallery> − |- − |} − {{anchor|Responses|responses}} − == Responses: mitigation and adaptation == − === Mitigation === − {{main|Climate change mitigation}} − [[File:Greenhouse gas emission scenarios 01.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|left|Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions. If all countries achieve their current Paris Agreement pledges, average warming by 2100 will go far beyond the target of the Paris Agreement to keep warming "well below 2°C".]] − The IPCC has stressed the need to keep global warming below {{Convert|1.5|C-change}} compared to pre-industrial levels in order to avoid some irreversible impacts.<ref name="SR15">{{Harvnb|IPCC SR15 Summary for Policymakers|2018|p=7}}</ref> Climate change impacts can be mitigated by reducing greenhouse gas emissions and by enhancing [[Carbon sink|sinks]] that absorb greenhouse gases from the atmosphere.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR Glossary|2014|p=125}}.</ref> In order to limit global warming to less than 1.5 °C with a high likelihood of success, the IPCC estimates that global greenhouse gas emissions will need to be [[Carbon neutrality|net-zero]] by 2050, or by 2070 with a 2 °C target.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Summary for Policymakers|2018|pp=|p=12}}.</ref> This will require far-reaching, systemic changes on an unprecedented scale in energy, land, cities, transport, buildings, and industry.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Summary for Policymakers|2018|p=15}}.</ref> To make progress towards a goal of limiting warming to 2 °C, the [[United Nations Environment Programme]] estimates that, within the next decade, countries will need to triple the amount of reductions they have committed to in their current [[Paris Agreement]]s; an even greater level of reduction is required to meet the 1.5 °C goal.<ref>{{harvnb|United Nations Environment Programme|2019|p=XX}}.</ref> − − Although there is no single pathway to limit global warming to {{Convert|1.5 or 2.0|C-change||abbr=}},<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch2|2018|p=109}}.</ref> most scenarios and strategies see a major increase in the use of renewable energy in combination with increased energy efficiency measures to generate the needed greenhouse gas reductions.<ref name="Teske, ed. 2019 xxiii" /> To reduce pressures on ecosystems and enhance their carbon sequestration capabilities, changes would also be necessary in sectors such as forestry and agriculture.<ref>{{harvnb|World Resources Institute, 8 August|2019}}.</ref> Scenarios that limit global warming to 1.5 °C generally project the large-scale use of [[carbon dioxide removal|carbon dioxide removal methods]] in addition to greenhouse gas reduction approaches, <ref>{{harvnb|Bui|Adjiman|Bardow|Anthony|2018|p=1068}}; {{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Summary for Policymakers|2018|p=17}}.</ref> and -in most cases- include reaching "net negative emissions to return global warming to 1.5°C following a peak."<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15|2018|loc=C.3|p=17}}</ref> Net negative emissions happen when the amount of greenhouse gasses that are released into atmosphere are smaller than the sequestered or stored amount.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR|2014|p=125}}</ref> However, carbon dioxide removal technologies deployed at scale are unproven, which presents a major risk in being able to limit warming to 1.5 °C.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15|2018|p=34}}</ref> [[Solar radiation management]] methods also have been explored as a possible supplement to deep reductions in net emissions. However, SRM would raise significant ethical and legal issues, and its risks of unwanted effects are poorly understood.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch4|2018|pp=347–352}}</ref> − − ====Clean energy==== − {{Main|Sustainable energy|Sustainable transport}} − [[File:Global Energy Consumption.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|right|Coal, oil, and natural gas remain the primary global energy sources even as [[Renewable energy|renewables]] have begun rapidly increasing.<ref>{{harvnb|Friedlingstein|Jones|O'Sullivan|Andrew|2019}}.</ref>]] − [[File:Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Economic Sector.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|right|Economic sectors with more greenhouse gas contributions have a greater stake in climate change policies.]] − Long-term scenarios point to rapid and significant investment in renewable energy and energy efficiency as key to reducing GHG emissions.<ref name="United Nations Environment Programme 2019 46" /> [[Renewable energy]] technologies include [[Solar energy|solar]] and [[wind power]], [[Biomass|bioenergy]], [[geothermal energy]], and [[hydropower]].<ref>{{harvnb|Teske|Nagrath|Morris|Dooley|2019|loc=Table 7.1|p=163}}.</ref> Fossil fuels accounted for 80% of the world's energy in 2018, while the remaining share was split between [[nuclear power]] and renewables;<ref>{{harvnb|REN21|2020|p=32|loc=Fig.1}}.</ref> that mix is projected to change significantly over the next 30 years.<ref name="Teske, ed. 2019 xxiii">{{harvnb|Teske, ed.|2019|p=xxiii}}.</ref> Photovoltaic solar and wind, in particular, have seen substantial growth and progress over the last few years, such that they are currently among the cheapest sources of new power generation.<ref>{{harvnb|Ritchie|2019}}; {{harvnb|United Nations Environment Programme|2019|loc=Fig.ES.5|p=XXIV}}</ref> Renewables represented 75% of all new electricity generation installed in 2019, with solar and wind constituting nearly all of that amount.<ref>{{harvnb|The Guardian, 6 April|2020}}.</ref> Meanwhile, nuclear power costs are increasing amidst stagnant power share, so that nuclear power generation is now several times more expensive per megawatt-hour than wind and solar.<ref>{{cite news |last1=Dunai |first1=Marton |last2=De Clercq |first2=Geert |date=23 September 2019 |title= Nuclear energy too slow, too expensive to save climate: report |url=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-energy-nuclearpower-idUSKBN1W909J |newspaper= Reuters |quote=The cost of generating solar power ranges from $36 to $44 per megawatt hour (MWh), the WNISR said, while onshore wind power comes in at $29–56 per MWh. Nuclear energy costs between $112 and $189. Over the past decade, (costs) for utility-scale solar have dropped by 88% and for wind by 69%. For nuclear, they have increased by 23%.}}</ref> − − To achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, renewable energy would become the dominant form of electricity generation, rising to 85% or more by 2050 in some scenarios. The use of electricity for other needs, such as heating, would rise to the point where electricity becomes the largest form of overall energy supply by 2050.<ref>{{harvnb|United Nations Environment Programme|2019|loc=Table ES.3|p=XXIII}}; {{harvnb|Teske, ed.|2019|p=xxvii, Fig.5}}.</ref> Investment in coal would be eliminated and coal use nearly phased out by 2050.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch2|2018|loc=Figure 2.15|p=131}}; {{harvnb|Teske|2019|pp=409–410}}.</ref> − − In transport, scenarios envision sharp increases in the market share of [[electric vehicle]]s, low carbon fuel substitution for other transportation modes like shipping, and changes in transportation patterns that increase efficiency, for example increased [[public transport]].<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch2|2018|pp=142–144}}; {{harvnb|United Nations Environment Programme|2019|loc=Table ES.3 & p.49}}.</ref> Buildings would see additional electrification with the use of technologies like [[heat pump]]s, as well as continued energy efficiency improvements achieved via low energy building codes.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG3 Ch9|2014|pp=686–694}}.</ref> − − There are obstacles to the continued rapid development of renewable energy. Solar and wind power require [[Grid energy storage|energy storage systems]] and other modifications to the [[Electrical grid|electricity grid]] to operate effectively,<ref name="United Nations Environment Programme 2019 46">{{harvnb|United Nations Environment Programme|2019|p=46}}.</ref> although several storage technologies are now emerging to supplement the traditional use of [[Pumped-storage hydroelectricity|pumped-storage hydropower]].<ref>{{harvnb|Vox, 20 September|2019}}.</ref> Environmental and land use concerns are sometimes associated with large solar, wind and hydropower projects.<ref>{{harvnb|Berrill|Arvesen|Scholz|Gils|2016}}.</ref> The use of hazardous materials has been raised as an additional concern with solar power.<ref>{{harvnb|Union of Concerned Scientists, 5 March|2013}}.</ref> Bioenergy is often not carbon neutral, and may have negative consequences for food security.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch4|2018|pp=324–325}}.</ref> Hydropower growth has been slowing and is set to decline further due to concerns about social and environmental impacts.<ref>{{cite web |title=Hydropower |url=https://www.iea.org/reports/hydropower |website=iea.org |publisher=International Energy Agency |access-date=12 October 2020 |quote=Hydropower generation is estimated to have increased by over 2% in 2019 owing to continued recovery from drought in Latin America as well as strong capacity expansion and good water availability in China (...) capacity expansion has been losing speed. This downward trend is expected to continue, due mainly to less large-project development in China and Brazil, where concerns over social and environmental impacts have restricted projects.}}</ref> − − While clean energy improves human health in the long term by minimizing climate change, it also has the near-term benefit of reducing air pollution deaths.<ref>{{harvnb|Watts|Amann|Arnell|Ayeb-Karlsson|2019|pp=1854}}; {{harvnb|WHO|2018|p=27}}.</ref> For example, total global air pollution deaths reach 7 million annually.<ref>{{harvnb|Watts|Amann|Arnell|Ayeb-Karlsson|2019|pp=1837}}</ref> Meeting Paris Agreement goals could save about a million of those lives per year worldwide from reduced pollution by 2050.<ref>{{harvnb|WHO|2018|p=27}}; {{harvnb|Vandyck|Keramidas|Kitous|Spadaro|2018}}.</ref> − − ==== Agriculture and industry ==== − {{Seealso|Sustainable agriculture|Green industrial policy}} − Agriculture and forestry face a triple challenge of limiting greenhouse gas emissions, preventing further conversion of forests to agricultural land, and meeting increases in world food demand.<ref>{{harvnb|World Resources Institute, December|2019|p=1}}.</ref> A suite of actions could reduce agriculture/forestry based greenhouse gas emissions by 66% from 2010 levels by reducing growth in demand for food and other agricultural products, increasing land productivity, protecting and restoring forests, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural production.<ref>{{harvnb|World Resources Institute, December|2019|p=10}}.</ref> Industrial efforts would focus on increasing the [[Efficient energy use|energy efficiency]], for instance in cement production,<ref>{{harvnb|BBC, 17 December|2018}}.</ref> designing less energy intensive products and increasing [[product lifetime]]s.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG3 Ch10|2014|pp=753–762}}; {{harvnb|IRENA|2019|p=49}}.</ref> − − ==== Carbon sequestration ==== − {{Main|Carbon capture and storage|Carbon dioxide removal|Carbon sequestration}} − Where energy production or {{CO2}}-intensive [[heavy industry|heavy industries]] continue to produce waste {{CO2}}, the gas can be captured and stored instead of being released to the atmosphere. Although its current use is limited in scale and expensive,<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch4|2018|pp=326–327}}; {{harvnb|Bednar|Obersteiner|Wagner|2019}}; {{harvnb|European Commission, 28 November|2018|p=188}}.</ref> [[carbon capture and storage]] (CCS) may be able to play a significant role in limiting {{CO2}} emissions by mid-century.{{Sfn|Bui|Adjiman|Bardow|Anthony|2018|p=1068}} Carbon capture and storage in combination with bio-energy (BECCS) can result in net-negative emissions.<ref>{{harvnb|Bednar|Obersteiner|Wagner|2019}}</ref> − − Earth's natural [[carbon sinks]] can be enhanced to sequester significantly larger amounts of {{CO2}} beyond naturally occurring levels.<ref>{{harvnb|World Resources Institute, 8 August|2019}}: {{harvnb|IPCC SRCCL Ch2|2019|pp=189–193}}.</ref> [[Reforestation]] and [[Afforestation|tree planting on non-forest lands]] are among the most mature sequestration techniques, although they raise food security concerns. [[Regenerative agriculture|Soil carbon sequestration]] and [[blue carbon|coastal carbon sequestration]] are less understood options.<ref>{{harvnb|Ruseva|Hedrick|Marland|Tovar|2020}}.</ref> As models disagree on the feasibility of land-based negative emissions methods for mitigation, strategies based on them are risky.{{Sfn|Krause|Pugh|Bayer|Li|2018|p=|pp=3026–3027}} − − ===Adaptation=== − {{main|Climate change adaptation}} − Adaptation is "the process of adjustment to current or expected changes in climate and its effects". As climate change effects vary across regions, so do adaptation strategies.{{sfn|IPCC SR15 Ch4|2018|pp=396–397}} While some adaptation responses call for trade-offs, others bring synergies and co-benefits.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR|2014}}, p. 112.</ref> Increased use of [[air conditioning]] allows people to better cope with heat, but also increases energy demand.{{Sfn|IPCC SR15 Ch5|2018|p=457}} Other examples of adaptation include improved coastline protection, better disaster management, and the development of more resistant crops.<ref> − {{Cite web − |title=Global climate change adaptation and mitigation − |last=NASA's Global Climate Change − |website=Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet − |url=https://climate.nasa.gov/solutions/adaptation-mitigation − |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190403000939/https://climate.nasa.gov/solutions/adaptation-mitigation/ − |archive-date=3 April 2019 − |url-status=live|access-date=12 April 2019 − }} − </ref> − − Adaptation is especially important in developing countries since they are predicted to bear the brunt of the effects of climate change.<ref>{{harvnb|Cole|2008}}.</ref> The capacity and potential for humans to adapt, called ''[[adaptive capacity]]'', is unevenly distributed across different regions and populations, and developing countries generally have less.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG2 Ch19|2007|p=796}}.</ref> There are limits to adaptation and more severe climate change requires more transformative adaptation, which can be prohibitively expensive.{{sfn|IPCC SR15 Ch4|2018|pp=396–397}} The public sector, private sector, and communities are all gaining experience with adaptation, and adaptation is becoming embedded within their planning processes.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR|2014|p=54}}.</ref> − − == Policies and politics == − {{main|Politics of climate change}} − [[File:Climate Change Performance Index.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|right|The [[Climate Change Performance Index]] ranks countries by greenhouse gas emissions (40% of score), renewable energy (20%), energy use (20%), and climate policy (20%).]] − Countries that are most [[Climate change vulnerability|vulnerable to climate change]] have typically been responsible for a small share of global emissions, which raises questions about justice and fairness.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 SYR Summary for Policymakers|2014|loc=Section 3|p=17}}.</ref> Climate change is strongly linked to sustainable development. Limiting global warming makes it easier to achieve [[sustainable development goals]], such as eradicating poverty and reducing inequalities. The connection between the two is recognized in the [[Sustainable Development Goal 13]] which is to "Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts".<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch5|2018|p=447}}; United Nations (2017) Resolution adopted by the General Assembly on 6 July 2017, [[:File:A RES 71 313 E.pdf|Work of the Statistical Commission pertaining to the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development]] ([https://undocs.org/A/RES/71/313 A/RES/71/313])</ref> The goals on food, clean water and ecosystem protections have synergies with climate mitigation.{{sfn|IPCC SR15 Ch5|2018|p=477}} − − The [[geopolitics]] of climate change is complex and has often been framed as a [[free-rider problem]], in which all countries benefit from mitigation done by other countries, but individual countries would lose from investing in a transition to a low-carbon economy themselves. This framing has been challenged. For instance, the benefits in terms of public health and local environmental improvements of [[coal phase out|coal phase-out]] exceed the costs in almost all regions.<ref name="Rauner 2020">{{harvnb|Rauner|Bauer|Dirnaichner|Van Dingenen|2020}}.</ref> Another argument against this framing is that net importers of fossil fuels win economically from transitioning, causing net exporters to face [[stranded assets]]: fossil fuels they cannot sell.<ref>{{harvnb|Mercure|Pollitt|Viñuales|Edwards|2018}}.</ref> − − === Policy options === − A wide range of [[Policy|policies]], [[regulation]]s and [[law]]s are being used to reduce greenhouse gases. [[Carbon price|Carbon pricing]] mechanisms include [[carbon tax]]es and [[Emissions trading|emissions trading systems]].<ref>{{harvnb|Union of Concerned Scientists, 8 January|2017}}; {{harvnb|Hagmann|Ho|Loewenstein|2019}}.</ref> As of 2019, carbon pricing covers about 20% of global greenhouse gas emissions.<ref>{{harvnb|World Bank, June|2019|p=12|loc=Box 1}}.</ref> Direct global fossil fuel subsidies reached $319 billion in 2017, and $5.2 trillion when indirect costs such as air pollution are priced in.<ref>{{harvnb|Watts|Amann|Arnell|Ayeb-Karlsson|2019|p=1866}}</ref> Ending these can cause a 28% reduction in global carbon emissions and a 46% reduction in air pollution deaths.<ref>{{harvnb|UN Human Development Report|2020|p=10}}</ref> Subsidies could also be redirected to support the [[Renewable energy transition|transition to clean energy]].<ref>{{harvnb|International Institute for Sustainable Development|2019|p=iv}}.</ref> More prescriptive methods that can reduce greenhouse gases include vehicle efficiency standards, renewable fuel standards, and air pollution regulations on heavy industry.<ref>{{harvnb|ICCT|2019|p=iv}}; {{harvnb|Natural Resources Defense Council, 29 September|2017}}.</ref> [[Renewable portfolio standard]]s have been enacted in several countries requiring utilities to increase the percentage of electricity they generate from renewable sources.<ref>{{harvnb|National Conference of State Legislators, 17 April|2020}}; {{harvnb|European Parliament, February|2020}}.</ref> − − As the use of fossil fuels is reduced, there are [[Just Transition]] considerations involving the social and economic challenges that arise. An example is the employment of workers in the affected industries, along with the well-being of the broader communities involved.<ref>{{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 4 Jan|2017}}.</ref> [[Climate justice]] considerations, such as those facing [[Indigenous peoples|indigenous populations]] in the Arctic,<ref>{{harvnb|Pacific Environment, 3 October|2018}}; {{harvnb|Ristroph|2019}}.</ref> are another important aspect of mitigation policies.<ref>{{harvnb|UNCTAD|2009}}.</ref> − === International climate agreements === − {{Further|United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change}} − [[File:Total CO2 by Region.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|Since 2000, rising {{CO2}} emissions in China and the rest of world have surpassed the output of the United States and Europe.<ref name="Friedlingstein 2019">{{harvnb|Friedlingstein|Jones|O'Sullivan|Andrew|2019}}, Table 7.</ref>]] − [[File:Per Capita CO2 by Region.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|Per person, the United States generates {{CO2}} at a far faster rate than other primary regions.<ref name="Friedlingstein 2019"/>]] − Nearly all countries in the world are parties to the 1994 [[United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change]] (UNFCCC).<ref>{{harvnb|UNFCCC, "What is the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change?"}}</ref> The objective of the UNFCCC is to prevent dangerous human interference with the climate system.<ref>{{harvnb|UNFCCC|1992|loc=Article 2}}.</ref> As stated in the convention, this requires that greenhouse gas concentrations are stabilized in the atmosphere at a level where [[Climate change and ecosystems|ecosystems]] can adapt naturally to climate change, food production is not threatened, and [[Economics of climate change|economic development]] can be sustained.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG3 Ch1|2007|p=97}}.</ref> Global emissions have risen since signing of the UNFCCC, which does not actually restrict emissions but rather provides a framework for protocols that do.<ref name=":2">{{harvnb|EPA|2019}}.</ref> [[United Nations Climate Change conference|Its yearly conferences]] are the stage of global negotiations.<ref>{{harvnb|UNFCCC, "What are United Nations Climate Change Conferences?"}}.</ref> − − The 1997 [[Kyoto Protocol]] extended the UNFCCC and included legally binding commitments for most developed countries to limit their emissions,<ref>{{harvnb|Kyoto Protocol|1997}}; {{harvnb|Liverman|2009|p=290}}.</ref> During Kyoto Protocol negotiations, the [[Group of 77|G77]] (representing [[Developing country|developing countries]]) pushed for a mandate requiring [[Developed country|developed countries]] to "[take] the lead" in reducing their emissions,<ref>{{harvnb|Dessai|2001|p=4}}; {{harvnb|Grubb|2003}}.</ref> since developed countries contributed most to the [[Greenhouse gas#Cumulative and historical emissions|accumulation of greenhouse gases]] in the atmosphere, and since [[Greenhouse gas#Annual emissions|per-capita emissions]] were still relatively low in developing countries and emissions of developing countries would grow to meet their development needs.<ref>{{harvnb|Liverman|2009|p=290}}.</ref> − − The 2009 [[Copenhagen Accord]] has been widely portrayed as disappointing because of its low goals, and was rejected by poorer nations including the G77.<ref>{{harvnb|Müller|2010}}; {{harvnb|The New York Times, 25 May|2015}}; {{harvnb|UNFCCC: Copenhagen|2009}}; {{harvnb|EUobserver, 20 December|2009}}.</ref> Associated parties aimed to limit the increase in global mean temperature to below {{Convert|2.0|C-change||abbr=}}.<ref>{{harvnb|UNFCCC: Copenhagen|2009}}.</ref> The Accord set the goal of sending $100 billion per year to developing countries in assistance for mitigation and adaptation by 2020, and proposed the founding of the [[Green Climate Fund]].<ref>{{cite conference|date=7–18 December 2009|title=Conference of the Parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change|url=http://unfccc.int/meetings/cop_15/items/5257.php|location=[[Copenhagen]]|id=un document= FCCC/CP/2009/L.7|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20101018074452/http://unfccc.int/meetings/cop_15/items/5257.php|archive-date=18 October 2010|access-date=24 October 2010|url-status=live}}</ref> {{As of|2020|}}, the fund has failed to reach its expected target, and risks a shrinkage in its funding.<ref>{{Cite journal|last1=Cui|first1=Lianbiao|last2=Sun|first2=Yi|last3=Song|first3=Malin|last4=Zhu|first4=Lei|date=2020|title=Co-financing in the green climate fund: lessons from the global environment facility|url=https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2019.1690968|journal=Climate Policy|volume=20|issue=1|pages=95–108|doi=10.1080/14693062.2019.1690968|issn=1469-3062|s2cid=213694904}}</ref> − − In 2015 all UN countries negotiated the [[Paris Agreement]], which aims to keep global warming well below {{Convert|1.5|C-change||abbr=}} and contains an aspirational goal of keeping warming under {{val|1.5|u=°C}}.{{sfn|Paris Agreement|2015}} The agreement replaced the Kyoto Protocol. Unlike Kyoto, no binding emission targets were set in the Paris Agreement. Instead, the procedure of regularly setting [[Nationally Determined Contributions|ever more ambitious goals]] and reevaluating these goals every five years has been made binding.<ref>{{harvnb|Climate Focus|2015|p=3}}; {{harvnb|Carbon Brief, 8 October|2018}}.</ref> The Paris Agreement reiterated that developing countries must be financially supported.<ref>{{harvnb|Climate Focus|2015|p=5}}.</ref> {{As of|December 2020|}}, 193 states and the [[European Union]] have signed the treaty and 188 states and the EU have [[Ratification|ratified]] or acceded to the agreement.<ref> − {{Cite web |url= https://treaties.un.org/Pages/ViewDetails.aspx?src=TREATY&mtdsg_no=XXVII-7-d&chapter=27&clang=_en − |website= United Nations Treaty Collection − |title= Status of Treaties, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change − |access-date=20 November 2019 − }}; {{harvnb|Salon, 25 September|2019}}.</ref> − − The 1987 [[Montreal Protocol]], an international agreement to stop emitting ozone-depleting gases, may have been more effective at curbing greenhouse gas emissions than the Kyoto Protocol specifically designed to do so.<ref>{{harvnb|Goyal|England|Sen Gupta|Jucker|2019}}.</ref> The 2016 [[Kigali Amendment]] to the Montreal Protocol aims to reduce the emissions of [[Hydrofluorocarbon|hydrofluorocarbons]], a group of powerful greenhouse gases which served as a replacement for banned ozone-depleting gases. This strengthened the makes the Montreal Protocol a stronger agreement against climate change.<ref>{{Cite web|last=Yeo|first=Sophie|date=2016-10-10|title=Explainer: Why a UN climate deal on HFCs matters|url=https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-why-a-un-climate-deal-on-hfcs-matters|url-status=live|archive-url=|archive-date=|access-date=2021-01-10|website=Carbon Brief|language=en}}</ref> − − === National responses === − In 2019, the [[Parliament of the United Kingdom|British Parliament]] became the first national government in the world to officially [[Climate emergency declaration|declare a climate emergency]].<ref>{{Harvnb|BBC, 1 May|2019}}; {{Harvnb|Vice, 2 May|2019}}.</ref> Other countries and [[jurisdiction]]s followed suit.<ref>{{harvnb|The Verge, 27 December|2019}}.</ref> In November 2019 the [[European Parliament]] declared a "climate and environmental emergency",<ref>{{harvnb|The Guardian, 28 November|2019}}</ref> and the [[European Commission]] presented its [[European Green Deal]] with the goal of making the EU carbon-neutral by 2050.<ref>{{harvnb|Politico, 11 December|2019}}.</ref> Major countries in Asia have made similar pledges: South Korea and Japan have committed to become carbon neutral by 2050, and China by 2060.<ref>{{harvnb|The Guardian, 28 October|2020}}</ref> − − == Scientific consensus and society == − − === Scientific consensus === − {{Main|Scientific consensus on climate change}} − [[File:20201209 Academic studies of scientific consensus - global warming, climate change-en.svg |thumb|right |upright=1.25 |[[Surveys of scientists' views on climate change|Academic studies of scientific agreement on human-caused global warming]] among climate experts (2010–2015) reflect that the level of consensus correlates with expertise in climate science.<ref>{{harvnb|Cook|Oreskes|Doran|Anderegg|2016}}</ref> ]] − There is an overwhelming scientific consensus that global surface temperatures have increased in recent decades and that the trend is caused mainly by human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases, with 90–100% (depending on the exact question, timing and sampling methodology) of publishing climate scientists agreeing.<ref name="Cook_et_al_2016">{{harvnb|Cook|Oreskes|Doran|Anderegg|2016}}; {{harvnb|NASA, Scientific Consensus|2020}}</ref> The consensus has grown to 100% among research scientists on anthropogenic global warming as of 2019.<ref name="Powell2019">{{cite journal |last1=Powell |first1=James |date=20 November 2019 |title=Scientists Reach 100% Consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming |url=https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0270467619886266?journalCode=bsta |journal=Bulletin of Science, Technology & Society |volume=37 |issue=4 |pages=183–184 |doi=10.1177/0270467619886266 |s2cid=213454806 |access-date=15 November 2020}}</ref> No scientific body of national or international standing [[Scientific consensus on climate change#Opposing|disagrees with this view]].<ref>{{harvnb|NRC|2008|p=2}}; {{harvnb|Oreskes|2007|p=[https://books.google.com/books?id=PXJIqCkb7YIC&pg=PA68 68]}}; {{Harvnb|Gleick, 7 January|2017}}</ref> Consensus has further developed that some form of action should be taken to protect people against the impacts of climate change, and national science academies have called on world leaders to cut global emissions.<ref>Joint statement of the {{harvtxt|G8+5 Academies|2009}}; {{harvnb|Gleick, 7 January|2017}}.</ref> − − Scientific discussion takes place in journal articles that are peer-reviewed, which scientists subject to assessment every couple of years in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports.<ref>{{harvnb|Royal Society|2005}}.</ref> In 2013, the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report stated that "it is ''extremely likely'' that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century".<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Summary for Policymakers|2013|loc= D.3|p=17}}.</ref> Their 2018 report expressed the [[scientific consensus]] as: "human influence on climate has been the dominant cause of observed warming since the mid-20th century".{{Sfn|IPCC SR15 Ch1|2018|p=53}} Scientists have issued two [[World Scientists' Warning to Humanity|warnings to humanity]], in 2017 and 2019, expressing concern about the current trajectory of potentially catastrophic climate change, and about untold human suffering as a consequence.<ref>{{harvnb|Ripple|Wolf|Newsome|Galetti|2017}}; {{harvnb|Ripple|Wolf|Newsome|Barnard|2019}}; {{harvnb|Fletcher|2019|p=9}}</ref> − − === The public === − {{Further|Climate communication|Media coverage of climate change|Public opinion on climate change}} − Climate change came to international public attention in the late 1980s.<ref name=":3">{{harvnb|Weart "The Public and Climate Change (since 1980)"}}.</ref> Due to confusing media coverage in the early 1990s, understanding was often confounded by conflation with other environmental issues like ozone depletion.<ref name="Newell2006">{{harvnb|Newell|2006|p=80}}; {{harvnb|Yale Climate Connections, 2 November|2010}}.</ref> [[Climate change in popular culture|In popular culture]], the first movie to reach a mass public on the topic was ''[[The Day After Tomorrow]]'' in 2004, followed a few years later by the [[Al Gore]] documentary ''[[An Inconvenient Truth]]''. Books, stories and films about climate change fall under the genre of [[climate fiction]].<ref name=":3" /> − − Significant regional differences exist in both public concern for and public understanding of climate change. In 2015, a [[median]] of 54% of respondents considered it "a very serious problem", but Americans and Chinese (whose economies are responsible for [[List of countries by carbon dioxide emissions|the greatest annual CO<sub>2</sub> emissions]]) were among the least concerned.{{sfn|Pew Research Center|2015}} A 2018 survey found increased concern globally on the issue compared to 2013 in most countries. More highly educated people, and in some countries women and younger people, were more likely to see climate change as a serious threat. In the United States, there was a large partisan gap in opinion.{{sfn|Pew Research Center, 18 April|2019}} − − ==== Denial and misinformation ==== − {{See also|Fossil fuels lobby|Climate change denial}} − [[File:20200327 Climate change deniers cherry picking time periods.gif|thumb|left|upright=1.35| One deceptive approach is [[cherry picking]] data from short time periods to falsely assert that global average temperatures are not rising. Blue trendlines show short-term countertrends that mask longer-term warming trends (red trendlines). Blue dots show the so-called [[global warming hiatus]].{{sfn |Stover|2014 }}]] − Public debate about climate change has been strongly affected by climate change denial and [[misinformation]], which originated in the United States and has since spread to other countries, particularly Canada and Australia. The actors behind climate change denial form a well-funded and relatively coordinated coalition of fossil fuel companies, industry groups, conservative think tanks, and contrarian scientists.<ref>{{harvnb|Dunlap|McCright|2011|pp=144, [https://books.google.com/books?id=RsYr_iQUs6QC&pg=PA155 155]}}; {{harvnb|Björnberg|Karlsson|Gilek|Hansson|2017}}.</ref> [[Tobacco industry playbook|Like the tobacco industry before]], the main strategy of these groups has been to manufacture doubt about scientific data and results.<ref>{{harvnb|Oreskes|Conway|2010}}; {{harvnb|Björnberg|Karlsson|Gilek|Hansson|2017}}.</ref> Many who deny, dismiss, or hold unwarranted doubt about the scientific consensus on anthropogenic climate change are labelled as "climate change skeptics", which several scientists have noted is a [[misnomer]].<ref>{{harvnb|O’Neill|Boykoff|2010}}; {{harvnb|Björnberg|Karlsson|Gilek|Hansson|2017}}.</ref> − − There are different variants of climate denial: some deny that warming takes place at all, some acknowledge warming but attribute it to natural influences, and some minimize the negative impacts of climate change.<ref name="Björnberg 2017">{{harvnb|Björnberg|Karlsson|Gilek|Hansson|2017}}.</ref> Manufacturing uncertainty about the science later developed into a [[Manufactured controversy|manufacturing controversy]]: creating the belief that there is significant uncertainty about climate change within the scientific community in order to delay policy changes.<ref>{{harvnb|Dunlap|McCright|2015|p=308}}.</ref> Strategies to promote these ideas include criticism of scientific institutions,<ref>{{harvnb|Dunlap|McCright|2011|p=146}}.</ref> and questioning the motives of individual scientists.<ref name="Björnberg 2017"/> An [[echo chamber]] of climate-denying [[blogs]] and media has further fomented misunderstanding of climate change.<ref>{{harvnb|Harvey|Van den Berg|Ellers|Kampen|2018}}.</ref> − − ==== Protest and litigation ==== − {{Main|Climate movement}} − Climate protests have risen in popularity in the 2010s in such forms as public demonstrations,<ref>{{harvnb|The New York Times, 29 April|2017}}.</ref> [[fossil fuel divestment]], and lawsuits.<ref>{{harvnb|Gunningham|2018}}.</ref> Prominent recent demonstrations include the [[school strike for climate]], and civil disobedience. In the school strike, youth across the globe have protested by skipping school, inspired by Swedish teenager [[Greta Thunberg]].<ref>{{harvnb|The Guardian, 19 March|2019}}; {{harvnb|Boulianne|Lalancette|Ilkiw|2020}}.</ref> Mass [[civil disobedience]] actions by groups like [[Extinction Rebellion]] have protested by causing disruption.<ref>{{harvnb|Deutsche Welle, 22 June|2019}}.</ref> [[Climate change litigation|Litigation]] is increasingly used as a tool to strengthen climate action, with many lawsuits targeting governments to demand that they take ambitious action or enforce existing laws regarding climate change. Lawsuits against fossil-fuel companies, from activists, [[shareholder]]s and [[investor]]s, generally seek compensation for loss and damage.<ref>{{harvnb|Setzer|Byrnes|2019}}.</ref> − − ==Discovery== − {{Broader|History of climate change science}} − − [[File:Tyndalls setup for measuring radiant heat absorption by gases annotated.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|Tyndall's [[Spectrophotometry|ratio spectrophotometer]] (drawing from 1861) measured how much infrared radiation was absorbed and emitted by various gases filling its central tube.]] − − To explain why Earth's temperature was higher than expected considering only incoming solar radiation, [[Joseph Fourier]] proposed the existence of a [[greenhouse effect]]. Solar energy reaches the surface as the atmosphere is transparent to solar radiation. The warmed surface emits infrared radiation, but the atmosphere is relatively opaque to infrared and slows the emission of energy, warming the planet.<ref>{{harvnb|Archer|Pierrehumbert|2013|pp=[https://books.google.com/books?id=sPY9HOfnuS0C&pg=PA10 10–14]}}.</ref> Starting in 1859,<ref>{{harvnb|Tyndall|1861}}.</ref> John Tyndall established that nitrogen and oxygen (99% of dry air) are transparent to infrared, but water vapour and traces of some gases (significantly methane and carbon dioxide) both absorb infrared and, when warmed, emit infrared radiation. Changing concentrations of these gases could have caused "all the mutations of climate which the researches of geologists reveal" including [[ice age]]s.<ref>{{harvnb|Archer|Pierrehumbert|2013|pp=[https://books.google.com/books?id=sPY9HOfnuS0C&pg=PA39 39–42]}}; {{harvnb | Fleming | 2008|loc=[http://nsdl.library.cornell.edu/websites/wiki/index.php/PALE_ClassicArticles/GlobalWarming/Article3.html Tyndall]}}. In 1856 [[Eunice Newton Foote]] experimented using glass cylinders filled with different gases heated by sunlight, but her apparatus could not distinguish the infrared greenhouse effect. She found moist air warmed more than dry air, and {{co2}} warmed most, so she concluded higher levels of this in the past would have increased temperatures: {{harvnb|Huddleston|2019}}.</ref> − − [[Svante Arrhenius]] noted that water vapour in air continuously varied, but carbon dioxide ({{co2}}) was determined by long term geological processes. At the end of an ice age, warming from increased {{co2}} would increase the amount of water vapour, amplifying its effect in a feedback process. In 1896, he published the first climate model of its kind, showing that halving of {{co2}} could have produced the drop in temperature initiating the ice age. Arrhenius calculated the temperature increase expected from doubling {{co2}} to be around {{convert|5-6|C-change}}.{{snf|Lapenis|1998}} Other scientists were initially sceptical and believed the greenhouse effect to be saturated so that adding more {{co2}} would make no difference. They thought climate would be self-regulating.<ref name="Weart The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect">{{harvnb|Weart "The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect"}}; {{harvnb |Fleming | 2008|loc=[http://nsdl.library.cornell.edu/websites/wiki/index.php/PALE_ClassicArticles/GlobalWarming/Article4.html Arrhenius]}}.</ref> From 1938 [[Guy Stewart Callendar]] published evidence that climate was warming and {{co2}} levels increasing,<ref>{{harvnb|Callendar|1938}}; {{harvnb|Fleming|2007}}.</ref> but his calculations met the same objections.<ref name="Weart The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect" /> − − In the 1950s, [[Gilbert Plass]] created a detailed computer model that included different atmospheric layers and the infrared spectrum and found that increasing {{co2}} levels would cause warming. In the same decade [[Hans Suess]] found evidence {{co2}} levels had been rising, [[Roger Revelle]] showed the oceans would not absorb the increase, and together they helped [[Charles David Keeling|Charles Keeling]] to begin a record of continued increase, the [[Keeling Curve]].<ref name="Weart The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect" /> Scientists alerted the public,<ref>{{harvnb|Weart "Suspicions of a Human-Caused Greenhouse (1956–1969)"}}.</ref> and the dangers were highlighted at [[James Hansen]]'s 1988 Congressional testimony.<ref name="history.aip.org">{{harvnb|Weart "The Public and Climate Change: The Summer of 1988"}}, [http://history.aip.org/climate/public2.htm#L_0575 "News reporters gave only a little attention ..."].</ref> The [[Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]], set up in 1988 to provide formal advice to the world's governments, spurred [[Interdisciplinarity|interdisciplinary research]].<ref>{{harvnb|Weart|2013|p=3567}}.</ref> − − == See also == − <!-- Editors: please note that the Manual of Style advices a minimum (or no) items in this sections for featured articles --> − {{portal |Climate change|Science|Environment}} − * [[2020s in environmental history]] − * [[Anthropocene]] – proposed new geological time interval in which humans are having significant geological impact − * [[Global cooling]] – minority view held by scientists in the 1970s that imminent cooling of the Earth would take place − {{clear}} − == References == − − === Notes === − {{reflist|25em}} − − ===Sources=== − − ==== IPCC reports ==== − {{refbegin}} − <!-- =========AR4================== --> − ''' AR4 Working Group I Report''' − <!-- Short-cite {{harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG1|2007}} links to this citation. --> − * {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG1|2007}} − |author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC − |year =2007 − |title=Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis − |series=Contribution of Working Group I to the [[IPCC Fourth Assessment Report|Fourth Assessment Report]] of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change − |display-editors=4 − |editor-first1=S. |editor-last1=Solomon − |editor-first2=D. |editor-last2=Qin − |editor-first3=M. |editor-last3=Manning − |editor-first4=Z. |editor-last4=Chen − |editor-first5=M. |editor-last5=Marquis − |editor-first6=K. B. |editor-last6=Averyt − |editor-first7=M. |editor-last7=Tignor − |editor-first8=H. L. |editor-last8=Miller − |publisher=Cambridge University Press − |url=http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/contents.html − |isbn=978-0-521-88009-1 − }} − <!-- # --> − **{{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG1 Ch1|2007}} − |chapter=Chapter 1: Historical Overview of Climate Change Science − |chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter1.pdf − |year=2007 − |display-authors=4 − |first1=H. |last1=Le Treut − |first2=R. |last2=Somerville − |first3=U. |last3=Cubasch − |first4=Y. |last4=Ding − |first5=C. |last5=Mauritzen − |first6=A. |last6=Mokssit − |first7=T. |last7=Peterson − |first8=M. |last8=Prather − |title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG1|2007}} − |pages=93–127 − }} − **{{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG1 Ch8|2007}} − |chapter=Chapter 8: Climate Models and their Evaluation − |chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter8.pdf − |year=2007 − |display-authors=4 − |first1=D. A. |last1=Randall − |first2=R. A. |last2=Wood − |first3=S. |last3=Bony − |first4=R. |last4=Colman − |first5=T. |last5=Fichefet − |first6=J. |last6=Fyfe − |first7=V. |last7=Kattsov − |first8=A. |last8=Pitman − |first9=J. |last9=Shukla − |first10=J. |last10=Srinivasan − |first11=R. J. |last11=Stouffer − |first12=A. |last12=Sumi − |first13=K. E. |last13=Taylor − |title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG1|2007}} − |pages=589–662 − }} − **{{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG1 Ch9|2007}} − |chapter=Chapter 9: Understanding and Attributing Climate Change − |chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter9.pdf − |year=2007 − |display-authors=4 − |first1=G. C. |last1=Hegerl − |first2=F. W. |last2=Zwiers − |first3=P. |last3=Braconnot |author-link3=Pascale Braconnot − |first4=N. P. |last4=Gillett − |first5=Y. |last5=Luo − |first6=J. A. |last6=Marengo Orsini − |first7=N. |last7=Nicholls − |first8=J. E. |last8=Penner − |first9=P. A. |last9=Stott − |title={{Harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG1|2007}} − |pages=663–745 − }} − − '''AR4 Working Group II Report''' − <!-- Short-cite {{harvnb|IPCC AR4 WG2|2007}} links to this citation. --> − * {{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG2|2007}} − |author=IPCC |author-link=IPCC − |year =2007 − |title=Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability − |series=Contribution of Working Group II to the [[IPCC Fourth Assessment Report|Fourth Assessment Report]] of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change − |display-editors=4 − |editor-first1=M. L. |editor-last1=Parry − |editor-first2=O. F. |editor-last2=Canziani − |editor-first3=J. P. |editor-last3=Palutikof − |editor-first4=P. J. |editor-last4=van der Linden − |editor-first5=C. E. |editor-last5=Hanson − |publisher=Cambridge University Press − |url=http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/contents.html − |isbn=978-0-521-88010-7 − }} − <!-- ## --> − **{{cite book |ref={{harvid|IPCC AR4 WG2 Ch1|2007}} − |chapter=Chapter 1: Assessment of observed changes and responses in natural and managed systems − |chapter-url=https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-chapter1.pdf − |year=2007 − |display-authors=4 − |first1=C. |last1=Rosenzweig − |first2=G. |last2=Casassa − |first3=D. J. |last3=Karoly − |first4=A. |last4=Imeson − |first5=C. |last5=Liu − |first6=A. |last6=Menzel − |first7=S. |last7=Rawlins − |first8=T. 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EV 49 − |last=Müller |first=Benito − |date=February 2010 − |publisher=[[Oxford Institute for Energy Studies]] − |isbn=978-1-907555-04-6 − |page=i − |url=https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/EV49-Copenhagen2009Failureorfinalwake-upcallforourleaders-BenitoMuller-2010.pdf − |access-date=18 May 2010 − |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170710081944/https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/EV49-Copenhagen2009Failureorfinalwake-upcallforourleaders-BenitoMuller-2010.pdf − |archive-date=10 July 2017|url-status=live − }} − * {{cite report − |author=National Research Council − |year=2008 − |title=Understanding and responding to climate change: Highlights of National Academies Reports, 2008 edition, produced by the US National Research Council (US NRC) − |publisher=National Academy of Sciences − |location=Washington, DC − |url=http://dels.nas.edu/Materials/Booklets/Lines-of-Evidence − |access-date=14 January 2016 − |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160304052136/http://dels.nas.edu/Materials/Booklets/Lines-of-Evidence − |archive-date=4 March 2016 − |url-status=live − }} − * {{cite report − |author=National Research Council − |year=2012 − |title=Climate Change: Evidence, Impacts, and Choices − |url=http://nas-sites.org/americasclimatechoices/files/2012/06/19014_cvtx_R1.pdf − |access-date=9 September 2017 − |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130220184517/http://nas-sites.org/americasclimatechoices/files/2012/06/19014_cvtx_R1.pdf − |archive-date=20 February 2013 |url-status=live − }} − * {{cite book − |last1=Newell |first1=Peter − |title=Climate for Change: Non-State Actors and the Global Politics of the Greenhouse − |date=14 December 2006 − |access-date=30 July 2018 − |publisher=Cambridge University Press − |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=ing21MGmh5UC − |isbn=978-0-521-02123-4 − }} − * {{cite web |ref={{harvid|NOAA|2017}} − |author=NOAA − |url=https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/publications/techrpt83_Global_and_Regional_SLR_Scenarios_for_the_US_final.pdf − |title=January 2017 analysis from NOAA: Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States − |access-date=7 February 2019 − |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20171218140625/https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/publications/techrpt83_Global_and_Regional_SLR_Scenarios_for_the_US_final.pdf − |archive-date=18 December 2017 |url-status=live }} − * {{cite web − |title=Understanding and Responding to Climate Change − |author=NRC − |year=2008 − |publisher=Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, US National Academy of Sciences − |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20171011182257/http://dels.nas.edu/resources/static-assets/materials-based-on-reports/booklets/climate_change_2008_final.pdf − |archive-date=11 October 2017 − |url-status=live − |url=http://dels.nas.edu/resources/static-assets/materials-based-on-reports/booklets/climate_change_2008_final.pdf − |access-date=9 November 2010 − }} − * {{cite book − |last1=Olivier |first1=J. G. J. − |last2=Peters |first2=J. A. H. W. − |year=2019 − |title=Trends in global {{CO2}} and total greenhouse gas emissions − |publisher=PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency − |url=https://www.pbl.nl/sites/default/files/downloads/pbl-2020-trends-in-global-co2-and-total-greenhouse-gas-emissions-2019-report_4068.pdf − |place=The Hague − }} − * {{cite book − |chapter=The scientific consensus on climate change: How do we know we're not wrong? − |last1=Oreskes |first1=Naomi − |title=Climate Change: What It Means for Us, Our Children, and Our Grandchildren − |editor-last1=DiMento |editor-first1=Joseph F. C. − |editor-last2=Doughman |editor-first2=Pamela M. − |publisher=The MIT Press − |year=2007 − |isbn=978-0-262-54193-0 − }} − * {{cite book − |title=Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming − |date=2010 − |last1=Oreskes |first1=Naomi − |author1-link=Naomi Oreskes − |first2=Erik |last2=Conway − |publisher=Bloomsbury Press − |edition=first − |isbn=978-1-59691-610-4 − }} − * {{cite book − |author=REN21 − |year=2020 − |title=Renewables 2020 Global Status Report − |url=https://www.ren21.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/gsr_2020_full_report_en.pdf − |location=Paris |publisher=REN21 Secretariat − |isbn=978-3-948393-00-7 − }} − * {{cite book − |date=13 April 2005 − |author=Royal Society − |title=Economic Affairs – Written Evidence − |series=The Economics of Climate Change, the Second Report of the 2005–2006 session, produced by the UK Parliament House of Lords Economics Affairs Select Committee − |url=https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld200506/ldselect/ldeconaf/12/12we24.htm − |publisher=UK Parliament − |access-date=9 July 2011 − |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20111113084025/http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld200506/ldselect/ldeconaf/12/12we24.htm − |archive-date=13 November 2011 − |url-status=live − }} − * {{cite book − |title=Global trends in climate change litigation: 2019 snapshot − |last1=Setzer |first1=Joana − |last2=Byrnes |first2=Rebecca − |date=July 2019 − |publisher=the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment and the Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy − |url=http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/GRI_Global-trends-in-climate-change-litigation-2019-snapshot.pdf − |location=London − }} − * {{cite book |ref={{harvid|Teske, ed.|2019}} − |chapter=Executive Summary − |date=2019 − |title=Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals: Global and Regional 100% Renewable Energy Scenarios with Non-energy GHG Pathways for +1.5 °C and +2 °C − |pages=xiii–xxxv − |editor-last=Teske |editor-first=Sven − |publisher=Springer International Publishing − |doi=10.1007/978-3-030-05843-2 − |isbn=978-3-030-05843-2 − |url=http://www.oapen.org/download/?type=document&docid=1007262 − |chapter-url=https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/bfm%3A978-3-030-05843-2%2F1.pdf − }} − * {{cite book − |last1=Teske |first1=Sven − |first2=Kriti |last2=Nagrath |first3=Tom |last3=Morris |first4=Kate |last4=Dooley − |chapter=Renewable Energy Resource Assessment − |date=2019 − |work=Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals: Global and Regional 100% Renewable Energy Scenarios with Non-energy GHG Pathways for +1.5 °C and +2 °C − |title=Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals − |pages=161–173 − |editor-last=Teske |editor-first=Sven − |publisher=Springer International Publishing − |doi=10.1007/978-3-030-05843-2_7 − |hdl=10453/139583 − |isbn=978-3-030-05843-2 − }} − * {{cite book − |last1=Teske |first1=Sven − |chapter=Trajectories for a Just Transition of the Fossil Fuel Industry − |date=2019 − |work=Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals: Global and Regional 100% Renewable Energy Scenarios with Non-energy GHG Pathways for +1.5 °C and +2 °C − |title=Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals − |pages=403–411 − |editor-last=Teske |editor-first=Sven − |publisher=Springer International Publishing − |doi=10.1007/978-3-030-05843-2_9 − |hdl=10453/139584 − |isbn=978-3-030-05843-2 − }} − * {{cite report − |author=UN FAO − |year=2016 − |title=Global Forest Resources Assessment 2015. How are the world's forests changing? − |url=http://www.fao.org/3/a-i4793e.pdf#page=11 − |publisher=Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations − |isbn=978-92-5-109283-5 − |access-date=1 December 2019 − }} − * {{cite book − |author=United Nations Environment Programme − |year=2019 − |title=Emissions Gap Report 2019 − |url=https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/30797/EGR2019.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y − |location=Nairobi − |isbn=978-92-807-3766-0 − }} − * {{cite conference − |year =1992 − |author=UNFCCC |author-link=UNFCCC − |title=United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change − |url=https://unfccc.int/files/essential_background/background_publications_htmlpdf/application/pdf/conveng.pdf − }} − <!-- ## --> − * {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Kyoto Protocol|1997}} − |date =1997 − |author=UNFCCC |author-link=UNFCCC − |title=Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change − |publisher=United Nations − |url=https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/kpeng.html − }} − <!-- ## --> − <!-- Example: Decision 2/CP.15 in {{harvnb|UNFCCC: Copenhagen|2009|loc=}} --> − <!-- Cite by paragraph, as page numbering is variable. --> − * {{cite conference |ref={{harvid|UNFCCC: Copenhagen|2009}} − |date =30 March 2010 − |author=UNFCCC |author-link=UNFCCC − |chapter=Decision 2/CP.15: Copenhagen Accord − |title=Report of the Conference of the Parties on its fifteenth session, held in Copenhagen from 7 to 19 December 2009 − |id =FCCC/CP/2009/11/Add.1 − |publisher=United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change − |chapter-url=http://unfccc.int/documentation/documents/advanced_search/items/3594.php?rec=j&priref=600005735#beg − |access-date=17 May 2010 − |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100430005322/https://unfccc.int/documentation/documents/advanced_search/items/3594.php?rec=j&priref=600005735#beg − |archive-date=30 April 2010 − |url-status=live − }} − <!-- ## --> − * {{cite web |ref={{harvid|Paris Agreement|2015}} − |date =2015 − |author=UNFCCC |author-link=UNFCCC − |title=Paris Agreement − |publisher=United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change − |url=https://unfccc.int/files/essential_background/convention/application/pdf/english_paris_agreement.pdf − }} − <!-- ## --> − * {{cite web |ref={{harvid|UNHCR|2011}} − |title=Climate Change and the Risk of Statelessness: The Situation of Low-lying Island States − |last=Park |first=Susin − |date=May 2011 − |publisher=United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees − |url=http://www.unhcr.org/4df9cb0c9.pdf − |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130502223251/http://www.unhcr.org/4df9cb0c9.pdf − |archive-date=2 May 2013|url-status=live|access-date=13 April 2012 − }} − * {{cite report − |author=United States Environmental Protection Agency − |year=2016 − |title=Methane and Black Carbon Impacts on the Arctic: Communicating the Science − |url=https://19january2017snapshot.epa.gov/climate-change-science/methane-and-black-carbon-impacts-arctic-communicating-science_.html − |access-date=27 February 2019 − |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170906225344/https://19january2017snapshot.epa.gov/climate-change-science/methane-and-black-carbon-impacts-arctic-communicating-science_.html − |archive-date=6 September 2017 |url-status=live − }} − * {{cite journal − |last1=Van Oldenborgh |first1=Geert-Jan − |last2=Philip |first2=Sjoukje − |last3=Kew |first3=Sarah − |last4=Vautard |first4=Robert − |display-authors=etal − |date=2019 − |website=Semantic Scholar − |s2cid=199454488 |title=Human contribution to the record-breaking June 2019 heat wave in France − }} − * {{cite report|ref={{harvid|World Bank, June|2019}} − |title=State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2019 − |url=http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/191801559846379845/pdf/State-and-Trends-of-Carbon-Pricing-2019.pdf − |date=June 2019 − |publisher=World Bank − |location=Washington, DC − |doi=10.1596/978-1-4648-1435-8 − }} − * {{cite book |ref={{harvid|WHO|2018}} − |author=World Health Organisation − |title=COP24 Special Report Health and Climate Change − |url=https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/276405/9789241514972-eng.pdf?ua=1 − |year=2018 − |location=Geneva − |isbn=978-92-4-151497-2 − }} − * {{cite report |ref={{harvid|WHO|2014}} − |author=World Health Organization − |year=2014 − |title=Quantitative risk assessment of the effects of climate change on selected causes of death, 2030s and 2050s − |location=Geneva, Switzerland − |isbn=978-92-4-150769-1 − |url=https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/134014/9789241507691_eng.pdf − }} − * {{cite book |ref={{harvid|WMO|2019}} − |author=[[World Meteorological Organization]] − |title=WMO Statement on the State of the Global Climate in 2018 − |url=https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=5789 − |year=2019 − |location=Geneva − |series=WMO-No. 1233 − |isbn=978-92-63-11233-0 − }} − * {{cite book |ref={{harvid|WMO|2020}} − |author=World Meteorological Organization − |title=WMO Statement on the State of the Global Climate in 2019 − |url=https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=10211 − |year=2020 − |location=Geneva − |series=WMO-No. 1248 − |isbn=978-92-63-11248-4 − }} − * {{cite book − |title=Shock Waves : Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty. Climate Change and Development − |date=2016 − |isbn=978-1-4648-0674-2 − |doi=10.1596/978-1-4648-0673-5 − |last1=Hallegatte |first1=Stephane − |last2=Bangalore |first2=Mook − |last3=Bonzanigo |first3=Laura − |last4=Fay |first4=Marianne − |last5=Kane |first5=Tamaro − |last6=Narloch |first6=Ulf − |last7=Rozenberg |first7=Julie − |last8=Treguer |first8=David − |last9=Vogt-Schilb |first9=Adrien − |display-authors=4 − |location=Washington DC − |publisher=World Bank − |hdl=10986/22787 − |url=https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/22787/9781464806735.pdf?sequence=13&isAllowed=y − }} − * {{cite book |ref={{harvid|World Resources Institute, December|2019}} − |author=World Resources Institute − |date=December 2019 − |title=Creating a Sustainable Food Future: A Menu of Solutions to Feed Nearly 10 Billion People by 2050 − |location=Washington, DC − |url=https://wrr-food.wri.org/sites/default/files/2019-07/creating-sustainable-food-future_2_5.pdf − |isbn=978-1-56973-953-2 − }} − {{refend}} − − ==== Non-technical sources ==== − {{refbegin}} − *''[[American Institute of Physics]]'' − **{{cite book − |ref=none − |last=Weart − |first=Spencer − |date=October 2008 − |title=The Discovery of Global Warming − |edition=2nd − |location=Cambridge, MA − |publisher=Harvard University Press − |isbn=978-0-67403-189-0 − |url=http://history.aip.org/climate/reviews.htm − |access-date=16 June 2020 − |url-status=live − |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161118000413/http://history.aip.org/climate/reviews.htm − |archive-date=18 November 2016}} − **{{cite book − |ref=none − |last=Weart − |first=Spencer − |date=February 2019 − |title=The Discovery of Global Warming − |edition=online − |url=http://history.aip.org/climate/index.htm − |access-date=19 June 2020 − |url-status=live − |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200618075616/http://history.aip.org/climate/index.htm − |archive-date=18 June 2020 − |author-link=Spencer R. Weart}} − ***{{citation|ref={{harvid|Weart "The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect"}} |mode=cs1 <!-- Because {cite web} doesn't do chapters. --> − |last =Weart |first=Spencer − |date =January 2020<!-- "The Discovery of Global Warming" is an evolving website, date is not useful for SFNs. --> − |title=The Discovery of Global Warming − |chapter=The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect − |chapter-url=http://history.aip.org/climate/co2.htm − |access-date=19 June 2020 − |publisher=American Institute of Physics − |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161111191800/http://history.aip.org/climate/co2.htm − |archive-date=11 November 2016 − |url-status=live − }} − ***{{citation|ref=none |mode=cs1 <!-- Because {cite web} doesn't do chapters. --> − |last =Weart |first=Spencer − |date =January 2020<!-- "The Discovery of Global Warming" is an evolving website, date is not useful for SFNs. --> − |title=The Discovery of Global Warming − |chapter=The Public and Climate Change − |chapter-url=http://history.aip.org/climate/public.htm − |access-date=19 June 2020 − |publisher =American Institute of Physics − |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161111191711/http://history.aip.org/climate/public.htm − |archive-date=11 November 2016 − |url-status=live − }} − ****{{citation|ref={{harvid|Weart "Suspicions of a Human-Caused Greenhouse (1956–1969)"}} |mode=cs1 <!-- Because {cite web} doesn't do chapters. --> − |last =Weart |first=Spencer − |date =January 2020<!-- "The Discovery of Global Warming" is an evolving website, date is not useful for SFNs. --> − |title=The Discovery of Global Warming − |chapter=The Public and Climate Change: Suspicions of a Human-Caused Greenhouse (1956–1969) − |chapter-url=http://history.aip.org/climate/public.htm#S2 − |access-date=19 June 2020 − |publisher =American Institute of Physics − |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161111191711/http://history.aip.org/climate/public.htm#S2 − |archive-date=11 November 2016 − |url-status=live − }} − ***{{citation|ref={{harvid|Weart "The Public and Climate Change (since 1980)"}} |mode=cs1 <!-- Because {cite web} doesn't do chapters. --> − |last1=Weart |first1=Spencer − |date =January 2020<!-- "The Discovery of Global Warming" is an evolving website, date is not useful for SFNs. --> − |title=The Discovery of Global warming − |chapter=The Public and Climate Change (cont. – since 1980) − |chapter-url=https://history.aip.org/climate/public2.htm − |access-date=19 June 2020 − |publisher =American Institute of Physics − |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161111191659/http://history.aip.org/climate/public2.htm − |archive-date=11 November 2016 − |url-status=live − }} − ****{{citation|ref={{harvid|Weart "The Public and Climate Change: The Summer of 1988"}} |mode=cs1 <!-- Because {cite web} doesn't do chapters. --> − |first=Spencer |last=Weart − |date =January 2020<!-- "The Discovery of Global Warming" is an evolving website, date is not useful for SFNs. --> − |title=The Discovery of Global Warming − |chapter=The Public and Climate Change: The Summer of 1988 − |chapter-url=http://history.aip.org/climate/public2.htm#S1988 − |access-date=19 June 2020 − |publisher=American Institute of Physics − |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161111191659/http://history.aip.org/climate/public2.htm#S1988 − |archive-date=11 November 2016 − |url-status=live − }} − * ''[[Associated Press]]'' − **{{cite web |ref={{harvid|Associated Press, 22 September|2015}} − |url=https://www.apstylebook.com/blog_posts/4 − |title=An addition to AP Stylebook entry on global warming − |last=Colford − |first=Paul − |date=22 September 2015 − |website=AP Style Blog − |access-date=6 November 2019}} − *''[[BBC]]'' − **{{cite news |ref={{harvid|BBC, 10 May|2013}} − |last=Amos |first=Jonathan − |date= 10 May 2013 − |title=Carbon dioxide passes symbolic mark − |publisher=BBC − |url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-22486153 − |access-date=27 May 2013 − |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130529053355/http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-22486153 − |archive-date=29 May 2013 − |url-status=live − }} − **{{cite web |ref={{harvid|BBC, 17 December|2018}} − |last=Rodgers |first=Lucy − |date= 17 December 2018 − |title=Climate change: The massive {{CO2}} emitter you may not know about − |publisher=BBC − |url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-46455844 − |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20181217144443/https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-46455844 − |archive-date=17 December 2018 − }} − **{{cite news |ref={{harvid|BBC, 1 May|2019}} − |date=1 May 2019 − |title=UK Parliament declares climate change emergency − |publisher=BBC − |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-48126677 − |access-date=30 June 2019 − }} − **{{cite web |ref={{harvid|BBC Science Focus Magazine, 3 February|2020}} − |last=Rigby |first=Sara − |date=3 February 2020 − |title=Climate change: should we change the terminology? − |website=BBC Science Focus Magazine − |language=en − |url=https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/climate-change-should-we-change-the-terminology/ − |access-date=24 March 2020}} − **{{cite news |ref={{harvid|BBC, 4 November|2020}} − |date=4 November 2020 − |title=Climate change: US formally withdraws from Paris agreement − |work=BBC News − |url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-54797743 − |access-date=6 November 2020 − |last=McGrath |first=Matt − }} − *''[[Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists]]'' − **{{cite news − |last1=Stover |first1=Dawn − |title=The global warming 'hiatus' − |url=https://thebulletin.org/2014/09/the-global-warming-hiatus/ − |work=Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists − |date=23 September 2014 − |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200711032006/https://thebulletin.org/2014/09/the-global-warming-hiatus/ − |archive-date=11 July 2020 − |url-status=live − }} − *''[[Carbon Brief]]'' − **{{cite web |ref={{harvid|Carbon Brief, 4 Jan|2017}} − |date=4 January 2017 − |last=Yeo |first=Sophie − |title=Clean energy: The challenge of achieving a 'just transition' for workers − |website=Carbon Brief − |url=https://www.carbonbrief.org/clean-energy-the-challenge-of-achieving-a-just-transition-for-workers − |access-date=18 May 2020 − }} − **{{cite web |ref={{harvid|Carbon Brief, 15 January|2018}} − |date=15 January 2018 − |last1=McSweeney |first1=Robert M. − |last2=Hausfather |first2=Zeke − |title= Q&A: How do climate models work? − |website=Carbon Brief − |url=https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-how-do-climate-models-work − |access-date=2 March 2019 − |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190305004530/https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-how-do-climate-models-work − |archive-date=5 March 2019 − |url-status=live − }} − **{{cite web |ref={{harvid|Carbon Brief, 19 April|2018}} − |date =19 April 2018 − |last1=Hausfather |first1=Zeke − |title=Explainer: How 'Shared Socioeconomic Pathways' explore future climate change − |website=Carbon Brief − |url=https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-shared-socioeconomic-pathways-explore-future-climate-change − |access-date=20 July 2019 − }} − **{{cite web |ref={{harvid|Carbon Brief, 8 October|2018}} − |date=8 October 2018 − |last1=Hausfather |first1=Zeke − |title=Analysis: Why the IPCC 1.5C report expanded the carbon budget − |url=https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-why-the-ipcc-1-5c-report-expanded-the-carbon-budget − |access-date=28 July 2020|website=Carbon Brief}} − **{{cite web |ref={{harvid|Carbon Brief, 7 January|2020}} − |url=https://www.carbonbrief.org/media-reaction-australias-bushfires-and-climate-change − |title=Media reaction: Australia's bushfires and climate change − |last1=Dunne |first1=Daisy |last2=Gabbatiss |first2=Josh |last3=Mcsweeny |first3=Robert − |date=7 January 2020 − |website=Carbon Brief|access-date=11 January 2020}} − *''[[Deutsche Welle]]'' − **{{cite news |ref={{harvid|Deutsche Welle, 22 June|2019}} − |last1=Ruiz |first1=Irene Banos − |title=Climate 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Change Conferences? − |website=UNFCCC − |access-date=12 May 2019 − |url=https://unfccc.int/process/conferences/what-are-united-nations-climate-change-conferences − |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190512084017/https://unfccc.int/process/conferences/what-are-united-nations-climate-change-conferences − |archive-date=12 May 2019 − |url-status=live − }} − **{{cite web − |ref={{harvid|UNFCCC, "What is the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change?"}} − |title=What is the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change? − |website=UNFCCC − |url=https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-convention/what-is-the-united-nations-framework-convention-on-climate-change − }} − *''[[Union of Concerned Scientists]]'' − **{{cite web |ref={{harvid|Union of Concerned Scientists, 5 March|2013}} − |date=5 March 2013 − |title=Environmental Impacts of Renewable Energy Technologies − |website=Union of Concerned Scientists − |url=https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/environmental-impacts-renewable-energy-technologies − |access-date=15 May 2020 − }} − **{{cite web |ref={{harvid|Union of Concerned Scientists, 8 January|2017}} − |date=8 January 2017 − |title=Carbon Pricing 101 − |website=Union of Concerned Scientists − |url=https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/carbon-pricing-101 − |access-date=15 May 2020 − }} − *''[[USA Today]]'' − **{{cite web |ref={{harvid|USA Today, 21 November|2019}} − |title='Climate emergency' is Oxford Dictionary's word of the year − |last=Rice|first=Doyle − |date=21 November 2019 − |website=USA Today − |url=https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2019/11/21/climate-emergency-oxford-dictionarys-word-year/4263945002/ − |access-date=3 December 2019}} − *''[[Vice (website)|Vice]]'' − **{{cite news |ref={{harvid|Vice, 2 May|2019}} − |website=Vice − |last1=Segalov |first1=Michael − |title=The UK Has Declared a Climate Emergency: What Now? − |url=https://www.vice.com/en_uk/article/evyxyn/uk-climate-emergency-what-does-it-mean − |access-date=30 June 2019 |date=2 May 2019 }} − *''[[The Verge]]'' − **{{cite web |ref={{harvid|The Verge, 27 December|2019}} − |title=2019 was the year of 'climate emergency' declarations − |last=Calma |first=Justine − |date=27 December 2019 − |website=The Verge − |url=https://www.theverge.com/2019/12/27/21038949/climate-change-2019-emergency-declaration − |access-date=28 March 2020}} − *''[[Vox (website)|Vox]]'' − **{{cite web |ref={{harvid|Vox, 20 September|2019}} − |last1=Roberts |first1=D. − |date=20 September 2019 − |title=Getting to 100% renewables requires cheap energy storage. But how cheap? − |website=Vox − |url=https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2019/8/9/20767886/renewable-energy-storage-cost-electricity − |access-date=28 May 2020 − }} − *''World Health Organization'' − **{{cite web |ref={{harvid|WHO, Nov|2015}} − |date=November 2015 − |title=WHO calls for urgent action to protect health from climate change – Sign the call − |website=World Health Organization − |url=https://www.who.int/globalchange/global-campaign/cop21/en/ − |access-date=2 September 2020 − }} − *''[[World Resources Institute]]'' − **{{cite web |ref={{harvid|World Resources Institute, 8 August|2019}} − |date=8 August 2019 − |last1=Levin |first1=Kelly − |title=How Effective Is Land At Removing Carbon Pollution? The IPCC Weighs In − |website=World Resources institute − |url=https://www.wri.org/blog/2019/08/how-effective-land-removing-carbon-pollution-ipcc-weighs − |access-date=15 May 2020 − }} − **{{cite web |ref={{harvid|World Resources Institute, 8 December|2019}} − |date=8 December 2019 − |first1=Frances |last1=Seymour − |first2=David |last2=Gibbs − |title=Forests in the IPCC Special Report on Land Use: 7 Things to Know − |url=https://www.wri.org/blog/2019/08/forests-ipcc-special-report-land-use-7-things-know/ − |website=World Resources Institute − }} − *''[[Yale]] Climate Connections'' − **{{cite web |ref={{harvid|Yale Climate Connections, 2 November|2010}} − |title=Yale Researcher Anthony Leiserowitz on Studying, Communicating with American Public − |date=2 November 2010 − |last=Peach |first=Sara − |publisher=Yale Climate Connections − |access-date=30 July 2018 − |url=https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2010/11/communicating-with-american-public − |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190207130823/https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2010/11/communicating-with-american-public/ − |archive-date=7 February 2019 − |url-status=live − }} − {{refend}} − − == External links == − {{Scholia}} − {{Library resources box − |by=no − |onlinebooks=no − |others=yes − |lcheading=Climate change}} − − * [http://dels.nas.edu/Climate/Climate-Change/Reports-Academies-Findings Climate Change at the National Academies] – Repository for reports − * [http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate-guide Met Office: Climate Guide] – UK National Weather Service − * [http://edgcm.columbia.edu/ Educational Global Climate Modelling] (EdGCM) – Research-quality climate change simulator − * [https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/faq/indicators.php Global Climate Change Indicators] – NOAA − * [https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2013/09/rising-seas-ice-melt-new-shoreline-maps/ Result of total melting of Polar regions on World] – National Geographic − − {{Subject bar|wikt=climate change|b=Climate Change|q=Climate change|commons=Category:Climate change|n=Category:Climate change|v=Climate change|s=Climate change}} − {{Climate change|state=expanded}} − {{Human impact on the environment}} − {{Earth}} − {{Doomsday}} − {{Authority control}} − − [[Category:Climate change| ]] − [[Category:History of climate variability and change]] − [[Category:Future problems]] − [[Category:Global environmental issues]] −
Reverted edits by Imheretoedit (talk) to last revision by RobSmith
{{for|a discussion of climate trends throughout Earth's history, see [[Climate variability and change]]. For other uses}}
<center><big><font color="brown">{{days until|2029|12|31}} Days Until Final Destruction of the Planet'''</font></big></center>
'''Climate change''' is the new name used by [[liberal]]s for their [[global warming]] hoax, which they coined as it became obvious that there is no crisis in global warming. The modification in terminology is identical to what [[liberals]] did in redefining "evolution" to be "change over time," which of course is a meaningless expression just as "climate change" is. Numerous past predictions of climatic catastrophes have failed to hold up.<ref>Multiple references:
*Lott, Maxim (March 19, 2019). [https://www.foxnews.com/science/10-times-experts-predicted-the-world-would-end-by-now 10 times 'experts' predicted the world would end by now]. ''Fox News''. Retrieved March 20, 2019.
*[https://www.wsj.com/articles/notable-quotable-the-art-of-climate-science-11552002661 Notable & Quotable: The Art of Climate Science]. ''The Wall Street Journal''. March 7, 2019. Retrieved March 20, 2019.
*Lott, Maxim (May 28, 2019). [https://www.foxnews.com/science/five-most-over-the-top-climate-warnings Five most over-the-top climate warnings]. ''Fox News''. Retrieved May 28, 2019.
See also:
*Lifson, Thomas (March 8, 2019). [https://www.lifesitenews.com/opinion/peer-reviewed-study-shows-majority-of-scientists-skeptical-of-global-warming-disaster-predictions Shhhh! Nobody tell Ocasio-Cortez scientists are skeptical of global warming]. ''LifeSiteNews''. Retrieved March 20, 2019.</ref>
[[File:Change in Average Temperature.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|right|alt=The Global map shows sea temperature rises of 0.5 to 1 degree Celsius; land temperature rises of 1 to 2 degree Celsius; and Arctic temperature rises of up to 4 degrees Celsius.|Average surface air temperatures from 2011 to 2020 compared to a baseline average from 1951 to 1980 (Source: [[Goddard Institute for Space Studies|NASA]])]]
[[File:Global_Temperature_And_Forces.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|right|The graph from 1880 to 2020 shows a natural drivers exhibiting random fluctuations of about 0.3 degrees Celsius, and human drivers steadily increasing by 0.2 degrees over 100 years to 1980, then steeply increasing by 0.6 degrees more over the past 40 years. |Observed temperature from NASA versus the 1850–1900 average as a pre-industrial baseline. The main driver for increased global temperatures in the industrial era is human activity, with natural forces adding variability.<ref name="USGCRP Chapter 3 Figure 3-1 panel 2">{{harvnb|USGCRP Chapter 3|2017}} [https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/3#fig-3-1 Figure 3.1 panel 2], [https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/3#fig-3-3 Figure 3.3 panel 5].</ref>]]
Climate change does occur naturally, which scientists say has occurred in repeated cycles of cooling (see [[Ice Age]]s) and warming over millions of years. Yet many writers have been urging America to fund an ill-conceived initiative to "stop global warming" as if warmer nights or winters would make human life more difficult. The term "climate change" has largely replaced the term "global warming", in ideological discussions.
Ideologues insist that the world's top scientists have reached a "consensus" that most of the warming which land-based weather stations have recorded in the last century is due to human activity. The basis for this claim is a set of reports published by the [[IPCC]], an agency of the United Nations. The assumption is that the government-appointed representatives who run the IPCC would be completely objective and neutral, and would place finding and revealing the truth ahead of any nationalistic interests.
A lot of money is spent publicizing one side's position in the debate:
* ''Newsweek'' purports to take readers inside the world of “Global-Warming Deniers: A Well-Funded Machine” without mentioning that the global-warming alarmists are even better funded, in some cases with government support. [https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2007/aug/15/the-hottest-year-1934/]
Journalists omit mention of key scientific points:
* Good news is no news, which is why the mainstream media largely ignores all studies showing net benefits of climate change. [http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/10/17/the-good-side-of-climate-change/]
Ideologues use all sorts of tricks to convince the general public to support them on the climate change issue. A perennial favorite is to trumpet the current year as the "[[warmest year on record]]", as if one [[outlier]] denotes a [[trend]]. Probably the most insidious kind of trick is to accuse objective people of cherry-picking and censorship, while hypocritically doing just that themselves.
The allegedly harmful effects of climate change include warming temperatures, changing weather patterns, an increase in sea level and in general any climate event affected by global warming.<ref>http://chaser.env.nagoya-u.ac.jp/~kengo/lec/IPCC_TAR-FRONT.pdf</ref> Climate change is one of the top [[Environmental Issues|environmental issues]], with [[liberal]]s and [[conservative]]s evenly divided on whether [[global warming]] is man-made or, if it is significantly occurring, is a natural event — along with [[global cooling]]. By 2019, voters were increasingly rejecting radical climate change policies.<ref>Burnett, H. Sterling (May 18, 2019). [https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/op-eds/around-the-world-backlash-against-expensive-climate-change-policies Around the world, backlash against expensive climate-change policies]. ''Washington Examiner''. Retrieved May 18, 2019.</ref>
Jack M. Hollander wrote:
*The planet has warmed since the mid-1800s, but before that it cooled for more than five centuries. Cycles of warming and cooling have been part of Earth's natural [[climate history]] for millions of years. So what is the [[global warming debate]] about? It's about the proposition that human use of [[fossil fuels]] has contributed significantly to the past century's warming, and that expected future warming may have catastrophic global consequences. But hard evidence for this human contribution simply does not exist; the evidence we have is suggestive at best. Does that mean the human effects are not occurring? Not necessarily. But [[Climategate media coverage#Climategate media coverage|media coverage]] of global warming has been so alarmist that it fails to convey how flimsy the evidence really is. Most people don't realize that many strong statements about a human contribution to global warming are based more on [[politics]] than on [[science]]. Indeed, the climate change issue has become so highly [[Politicization of science|politicized]] that its scientific and political aspects are now almost indistinguishable.<ref>http://goliath.ecnext.com/coms2/summary_0199-2875898_ITM Global Warming: Both Sides</ref>
== Observed temperature rise ==
==Questions==
#What is the most important greenhouse gas?
[[File:Common Era Temperature.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|right|Global surface temperature reconstruction over the last 2000 years using proxy data from tree rings, corals, and ice cores in blue.<ref>{{harvnb|Neukom|Barboza|Erb|Shi|2019}}.</ref> Directly observational data is in red.<ref name="nasa temperatures">{{cite web|title=Global Annual Mean Surface Air Temperature Change|url=https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/|access-date=23 February 2020|publisher=NASA}}</ref>]]
#*AGW proponents say it's [[carbon dioxide]]
[[File:Land vs Ocean Temperature.svg|thumb|upright=1.35|NASA data<ref name="nasa temperatures" /> shows that land surface temperatures have increased faster than ocean temperatures.|alt=]]
#*A peer-reviewed scientific paper says it's [[water vapor]]<ref>[http://thejll.com/Frascati/ReichelThejllLassenSCL.pdf "Water vapor is the most important greenhouse gas ..."]</ref>
#What is the role of clouds?
</ref> with the 2009–2018 decade being {{convert|0.93 ± 0.07|C-change}} warmer than the pre-industrial baseline (1850–1900).<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Summary for Policymakers|2018|p=4}}; {{harvnb|WMO|2019|p=6}}.</ref> Currently, surface temperatures are rising by about {{convert|0.2|C-change}} per decade.<ref>{{Harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch1|2018|p=81}}.</ref> Since 1950, the number of cold days and nights has decreased, and the number of warm days and nights has increased.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch2|2013|p=162}}.</ref> Historical patterns of warming and cooling, like the [[Medieval Climate Anomaly]] and the [[Little Ice Age]], did not occur at the same time across different regions, but temperatures may have reached as high as those of the late-20th century in a limited set of regions.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch5|2013|p=386}}; {{harvnb|Neukom|Steiger|Gómez-Navarro|Wang|2019}}.</ref> There have been prehistorical episodes of global warming, such as the [[Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum]].<ref name="AR5 WG1 Ch 5">{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch5|2013|pages=389, 399–400|ps =: "The [[Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum|PETM]] [around 55.5–55.3 million years ago] was marked by ... global warming of 4 °C to 7 °C ... [[Deglaciation|Deglacial]] global warming occurred in two main steps from 17.5 to 14.5 ka [thousand years ago] and 13.0 to 10.0 ka."}}</ref> However, the modern observed rise in temperature and {{CO2}} concentrations has been so rapid that even [[Abrupt climate change|abrupt geophysical events]] that took place in Earth's history do not approach current rates.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC SR15 Ch1|2018|p=54}}.</ref>
#*Low-altitude clouds reflect some of the sun's radiation back into the atmosphere, cooling the earth. It's not yet known whether global warming will dissipate clouds, which would effectively speed up the process of climate change, or increase [[cloud cover]], which would slow it down. [http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1912448,00.html#ixzz1EyuBDJo1]
#What are the uncertainties in understanding climatic change?
#*The UN's climate panel said recently there is '''a 90% chance''' that most of the last 50 to 100 years of global warming are due to human activity
#*[[Sallie Baliunas]] points out that the same climate panel also said, "Our ability to quantify the human influence on global climate is limited because the expected signal is still emerging from the noise of natural variability, and because there are uncertainties in key factors" [http://oldfraser.lexi.net/publications/books/g_warming/solar.html]
==Links==
*[[cloud cover]]
*[[ice age]]
==Hypocrisy==
Many times, AGW advocates pay lip service to general principles which they themselves violate, while broadcasting false accusations that their opponents are violating these principles. The AGW side has made every effort to censor their opponents, heaping enormous pressure on scientists and other academics to silence them. Accordingly, the US media gave great publicity to [[James Hansen]] when he accused NASA of trying to silence him.<ref>Hansen "shot to fame when he accused the administration of trying to censor his views on climate change" [http://www.dailytech.com/Blogger+finds+Y2K+bug+in+NASA+Climate+Data/article8383.htm]</ref>
==Environmentalism and climate change==
The main contention of [[environmentalist]]s like [[Al Gore]] is the argument that:
#The earth's atmosphere warmed one or two degrees Fahrenheit (0.8 Centigrade) during the 20th century.
#Most of this warming is man-made.
#The warming is likely to continue and to be harmful to human, animal and plant life.
#We must all work together to stop it by reducing emission of [[greenhouse gases]].
== Drivers of recent temperature rise ==
==Science and climate change==
Jack M. Hollander wrote:
<blockquote>... climate change remains a fascinating and important scientific subject. Climate dynamics and climate history are extraordinarily complex, and despite intensive study for decades, scientists are not yet able to explain satisfactorily such basic phenomena as extreme weather events ([[hurricane]]s, [[tornado]]es, [[drought]]s), El Nino variations, historical [[climate cycles]], and trends of [[atmospheric temperature]]s. The scientific uncertainties about all these matters are great, and not surprisingly, competent scientists disagree in their interpretations of what is and is not known.<ref>http://goliath.ecnext.com/coms2/summary_0199-2875898_ITM</ref></blockquote>
The attribution of climate change is the effort to scientifically show which mechanisms are responsible for observed changes in Earth's climate. To determine the human contribution, known internal [[climate variability]] and natural external forcings need to be ruled out. A key approach is to use computer modelling of the climate system to determine unique "fingerprints" for all potential causes. By comparing these fingerprints with observed patterns and evolution of climate change, and the observed history of the forcings, the causes of the changes can be determined.<ref>{{harvnb|Knutson|2017|p=443}}; {{Harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch10|2013|pp=875–876}}.</ref> For example, solar forcing can be ruled out as major cause because its fingerprint is warming in the entire atmosphere, and only the lower atmosphere has warmed, as expected from greenhouse gases (which trap heat energy radiating from the surface).<ref name=":1" /> Attribution of recent climate change shows that the primary driver is elevated greenhouse gases, but that aerosols also have a strong effect.<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Summary for Policymakers|2013|pp=13–14}}.</ref>
William Happer wrote:
<blockquote>The current debates about global climate change are complicated by our not understanding the physics of the sun or of the earth’s atmosphere and oceans well enough to dismiss them as major causes of climate change on the earth. Dramatic climate changes like the [[medieval warm period]] at the time of the [[Viking]] settlements of [[Iceland]] and [[Greenland]] from about a.d. 900 to 1250, and the subsequent “[[little ice age]],” from about 1250 to 1700, which led to extinction of the Greenland settlements, were certainly not caused by manmade changes in the concentration of [[carbon dioxide]] in the atmosphere.<ref>http://media.hoover.org/documents/0817939326_27.pdf</ref></blockquote>
One of the major problems with many scientists' conclusions about climate change is a misunderstanding of [[correlation]] versus [[causation]]. Some studies show correlations between increasing concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases and increasing [[precipitation]], and between human activity and atmospheric greenhouse gases, and then go so far as to conclude that humans are causing increased rain, snow, and catastrophic flooding.<ref>Gillis, Justin. "Study Links Rise in Rain and Snow to Human Actions." ''The New York Times'', February 16, 2011. https://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/17/science/earth/17extreme.html?_r=2&ref=science</ref><ref>Schiermeier, Quirin. "Increased Flood Risk Linked to Global Warming." 2011. ''Nature'', Vol. 470, p. 316. http://www.nature.com/news/2011/110216/full/470316a.html</ref> Correlation does not imply causation. This is especially true considering the relatively short periods of data used (a few decades at most) compared to the Earth's age, and the fact that weather patterns have been cyclic throughout history (see [[climate cycles]]).
[[File:Carbon Dioxide 800kyr.svg|thumb|left|upright=1.35|{{CO2}} concentrations over the last 800,000 years as measured from ice cores (blue/green) and directly (black)]]
==History of Climate Change vs. Global Warming==
The term climate change has its origins several decades ago when physicist Gilbert Plass published a study called ''The Carbon Dioxide Theory of Climatic Change'' in 1956.<ref>http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1956.tb01206.x/abstract</ref>
In this study, Plass postulated the release of CO2 into the atmosphere by industrial and other human activities may have caused the temperature rise noticed in the twentieth century.
[[File:CO2 Emissions by Source Since 1880.svg|thumb|right|upright=1.35|The [[Global Carbon Project]] shows how additions to {{CO2}} since 1880 have been caused by different sources ramping up one after another.]]
The term global warming was first thought to be used by Wallace Broecker, a geochemist from [[Columbia University]]'s Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory. His paper, ''Climatic Change: Are We on the Brink of a Pronounced Global Warming?'' <ref>http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/files/2009/10/broeckerglobalwarming75.pdf</ref> acknowledged the scenario of global warming, though there was a common acknowledgement that airborne aerosols may cause global cooling.
A National Academy of Science study of carbon dioxide's impact on climate published in 1979 also used the term global warming to refer to surface temperature change.<ref>http://www.atmos.ucla.edu/~brianpm/download/charney_report.pdf</ref> Jule Charney of the [[Massachusetts Institute of Technology]] in Cambridge declared: "If carbon dioxide continues to increase, we find no reason to doubt that climate changes will result and no reason to believe that these changes will be negligible.” Climate change was still used to refer to the other changes thought to be caused by increased CO2.
==Further reading==
* [http://www.worldwatch.org/files/pdf/CCRG.pdf Climate Change Reference Guide]
* [http://www.who.int/heli/risks/climate/climatedirectory/en/index1.html Climate change: directory of references/resources]
* [http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/faq/global-warming.php National Climatic Data Center]
* [http://www.realclimate.org/ Real Climate]
* [http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/ IPCC Fifth Assessment Report]
* [http://www.thegwpf.com/ The Global Warming Policy Forum]
=== Aerosols and clouds ===
==See also==
[[Air pollution]], in the form of [[aerosol]]s, not only puts a large burden on human health, but also [[Particulates#Climate effects|affects the climate]] on a large scale.<ref>{{Harvnb|Haywood|2016|p=456}}; {{harvnb|McNeill|2017}}; {{harvnb|Samset|Sand|Smith|Bauer|2018}}.</ref> From 1961 to 1990, a gradual reduction in the amount of [[irradiance|sunlight reaching the Earth's surface]] was observed, a phenomenon popularly known as ''[[global dimming]]'',<ref>{{harvnb|IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch2|2013|p=183}}.</ref> typically attributed to aerosols from biofuel and fossil fuel burning.<ref>{{harvnb|He|Wang|Zhou|Wild|2018}}; {{Harvnb|Storelvmo|Phillips|Lohmann|Leirvik|2016}}.</ref> [[Wet deposition|Aerosol removal by precipitation]] gives tropospheric aerosols an [[atmospheric lifetime]] of only about a week, while [[stratosphere|stratospheric]] aerosols can remain in the atmosphere for a few years.<ref name="RamCarm2008">{{harvnb|Ramanathan|Carmichael|2008}}.</ref> Globally, aerosols have been declining since 1990, meaning that they no longer mask greenhouse gas warming as much.<ref>{{harvnb|Wild|Gilgen|Roesch|Ohmura|2005}}; {{Harvnb|Storelvmo|Phillips|Lohmann|Leirvik|2016}}; {{harvnb|Samset|Sand|Smith|Bauer|2018}}.</ref>
*[[Anthropogenic global warming]]
*[[War on Science]]
==References==
{{reflist}}
=== Changes on land surface ===
==External links==
[[File:Operação Hymenaea, Julho-2016 (29399454651).jpg|thumb|left|[[Deforestation in Brazil]] in 2016]]
*[http://goliath.ecnext.com/coms2/summary_0199-2875898_ITM Global warming: both sides]
*[http://www.no-carbon-tax.org Australian Anti-Climate Hypocrisy Site]
{{Climategate scandal}}
{{communism}}
[[Category:Environmentalism]]
{{Further|Solar activity and climate}}
[[Category:Climate Change]]
[[Category:Liberal Falsehoods]]
[[Types of volcanic eruptions#Plinian|Explosive volcanic eruptions]] represent the largest natural forcing over the industrial era. When the eruption is sufficiently strong (with [[sulfur dioxide]] reaching the stratosphere) sunlight can be partially blocked for a couple of years, with a temperature signal lasting about twice as long. In the industrial era, volcanic activity has had negligible impacts on global temperature trends.<ref>{{harvnb|USGCRP Chapter 2|2017|p=79}}</ref> Present-day [[Volcanic gas|volcanic CO<sub>2</sub> emissions]] are equivalent to less than 1% of current anthropogenic CO<sub>2</sub> emissions.{{sfn|Fischer|Aiuppa|2020}}
[[Category:Articles containing video clips]]