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→Fraudulent activity
*Wisconsin — 62,836
*Wisconsin — 62,836
A standard [[voter fraud]] method, [[Benford's Law]], flags these votes as suspect.<ref>https://thenationalpulse.com/politics/pennsylvania-vote-anomalies/</ref>
A standard [[voter fraud]] method, [[Benford's Law]], flags these votes as suspect.<ref>https://thenationalpulse.com/politics/pennsylvania-vote-anomalies/</ref>
===Alleged turnout===
[[File:Decreases in Latino Democratic Vote Support, 2016 - 2020.PNG|right|350px|thumb|Decreases in Latino Democratic Vote Support, 2016 - 2020.<ref>https://catalist.us/wh-national/#pp-toc-608eee40d2225-anchor-5</ref>]]
Turnout went from 139 million votes in 2016, to a reported record high of 160 million votes in 2020, a 12% increase overall. 2020 saw millions of alleged first-time voters, even though campaigns and civic engagement organizations were not able to run traditional registration, canvassing or get-out-the-vote operations due to the pandemic. Nationally, 14% of voters were allegedly first-time voters, who never voted in a previous even-year general election. 29% of alleged voters were new presidential voters in their state in 2020. Some of these voters registered and voted for the first time in 2018, others were brand-new in 2020 or moved from out of state. Turnover was especially large in Sunbelt battleground states.
Democratic support from Blacks dropped in 2020.<ref>https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-54972389</ref> According to [[NBC News]],
{{quotebox-float|"Over half of Black men (52 percent) who identified as ideologically conservative cast their vote for the president, and 1 in 3 Black men living in the Midwest also voted for him....About 26 percent of Black men who had a high school diploma or less supported Trump. But 22 percent of Black men with bachelor’s degrees and 20 percent of Black men with advanced degrees also supported him.<ref>https://www.nbcnews.com/news/nbcblk/black-men-drifted-democrats-toward-trump-record-numbers-polls-show-n1246447</ref>}}
[[File:Fuzzy_Match_2016.PNG|right|300px|thumb|Fuzzy matching accounts for 1.8 million increase in turnout.]]
Democratic support in the densest urban areas peaked in 2016 and 2018 at 75%, and fell to 72% in 2020.<ref>https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/11/12/2020-election-analysis-democrats-future-david-shor-interview-436334</ref> <ref>https://archive.is/x2jsh</ref> An analysis of the 2020 election by Richard Florida and Patrick Adler of the University of Toronto showed that Republicans continued to capture many more metropolitan areas, while the Democratic vote is concentrated in a smaller number of denser, coastal metros and college towns. Overall, Biden won considerably fewer metros than Trump, taking 41% of metropolitan areas, to 59% for Trump.<ref>https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-12-04/how-metro-areas-voted-in-the-2020-election</ref>
Latino voting levels allegedly rose dramatically in 2020, with the number of Latino votes rising by more than 30% compared to 2016. Leftist election analysts found an 8 point drop in overall partisan support levels, going from 71% Democratic support in 2016, to 63% in 2020. The biggest drop in support for Democrats came in [[Cuba]]n areas (13 points). [[Mexican]]s are the largest Latino subgroup in most states across the country, and highly Mexican areas also showed a drop (6 points), albeit smaller than Cuban areas. [[Puerto Rican]], [[Dominican Republic]], and areas with other dominant groups were in the middle (8-9 point drop), close to the national average.
Overall, 22% of Latino voters were allegedly first-time voters according to leftist election analysts. By contrast, just 14% of the national electorate was entirely new. A full 40% of Latino voters were allegedly new presidential voters, while the national number is 29% of the overall electorate.
Overall, Asian-American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) voters comprised 4% of the electorate, but the number of votes from this group allegedly increased a staggering 39% from 2016. AAPI voters delivered 67% of their vote share to the Biden-Harris ticket.
According to leftist demographic experts, [[Gen Z]] increased their alleged turnout from 2016 by nearly 300%, since many were under 18 and therefore ineligible in 2016.<ref>https://www.kxan.com/news/national-news/millennials-gen-z-voters-helped-get-joe-biden-to-the-white-house-analysis-shows/</ref> These figures are derived using "[[fuzzy matching]]".<ref>https://medium.com/data-science-in-your-pocket/fuzzy-matching-algorithms-explained-e0ff30cc00ca</ref> The [[Progressive]] demographic experts a Catalist write,
{{quotebox-float|"In both Nevada and Arizona, about 20% of voters were true first-time voters, compared to 14% nationally. If we look at the overall turnover from the last presidential election to now, over 35% of the voting electorate is different in these two states, i.e., new presidential voters. Texas, Georgia, Florida, and North Carolina all have new voter rates that are at or above the national average, too. Michigan’s rates are near the national average, but there appears to be less turnover in the other Midwest battleground states and New Hampshire.
The fact that new voting rates are higher in the South and West is fairly unsurprising, considering those states’ migration rates and demographics. But the magnitude of these changes is poorly understood: we don’t think many people realize that state-level turnover from one Presidential election to the next can be as high as 35% or more.1We think this has important and wide-ranging implications to election analysis, and deserves a great deal of further scrutiny and analysis. To give three prominent examples:
#Why are elections so stable from one Presidential election to the next? Battleground states are defined with a lot of emphasis on the last election result, and county-level election results are quite stable from one year to the next. How does this happen with this high level of turnover from one year to the next?
#How should this affect poll weighting, which is largely based on the composition of the electorate from four years prior? To be clear, it does not appear as though polling errors were larger in states with more turnover, and in our view this was not the main source of polling error in 2020.
#How does this affect strategic and tactical considerations for political campaigns and civic engagement organizations? Many practitioners and analysts think of election changes as occurring within a largely similar group of people from one election to the next. People understand that changes occur, with young voters coming into the mix, voter persuasion, differential turnout rates, and so on. But this standard mental model usually breaks out voters into separate categories: brand-new registrants, reactivating inactive voters, voters who first voted in the last midterm, and movers, for example. The implications of the total amount of election turnover are more rarely considered.
One important question that immediately follows this line of thinking is, how Democratic or Republican-leaning are these new voters, compared to returning voters? We have suggestive data to try to answer this question, but we want to strongly caution readers that we consider these results highly tentative.
According to our tentative estimates, new presidential voters supported Biden at substantially higher rates overall (56%) than 2016 voters who returned in 2020 (51%). This appears to be driven primarily by their demographic distribution. Consider the age breakdown shown above: there are few differences between 2016 voters and new presidential voters within each age group, but new voters skew much younger and more Democratic. On top of this, new voters were more racially diverse than returning 2016 voters, with 40% of Latino voters, and 42% of Asian voters being new presidential voters.<ref> https://catalist.us/wh-national/#pp-toc-608eee40d2225-anchor-5</ref>}}
===Pennsylvania===
===Pennsylvania===