| | The site wrongly predicted that [[Hillary Clinton]] would defeat [[Donald Trump]] in 2016. Its predictions seem to be left-leaning and its audience is probably mostly [[liberal]]. It is most useful as a "worst-case" type of prediction, rather than as a prophetic assessment. | | The site wrongly predicted that [[Hillary Clinton]] would defeat [[Donald Trump]] in 2016. Its predictions seem to be left-leaning and its audience is probably mostly [[liberal]]. It is most useful as a "worst-case" type of prediction, rather than as a prophetic assessment. |
| − | In the [[2022 midterm elections]], ''FiveThirtyEight'' long predicted a [[Democrat]] win of control of the [[U.S. Senate]], and only in the last month prior to the election began to incrementally increase the chances of a [[GOP]] victory until, merely a week before the election, began to predict a [[Republican]] win. | + | ''RealClearPolitics'' uses modeling that does a better job of factoring in historical inaccuracies in polling, and last-minute tendencies for undecided voters to shift in certain ways (such as against the incumbent party). |
| | + | In the [[2022 midterm elections]], ''FiveThirtyEight'' long predicted a [[Democrat]] win of control of the [[U.S. Senate]], and only in the last month prior to the election began to incrementally increase the chances of a [[GOP]] victory until, merely a week before the election, began to predict a [[Republican]] win. In contrast, ''RealClearPolitics'' predicted for more than a month a [[GOP]] win that ''FiveThirtyEight'' did not predict until the final week. |
| | In the 2020 presidential election, the site used a very ugly Trump face and a handsome Biden face, and overstated that "Biden is ''clearly'' favored to win this election," by a lopsided margin of 91 to 9. In an attempt to hide its bias, it has a fox "comforting" and "encouraging" the "underdog Trump", which is not that biased as the rest of the side. It is a detailed site, at least for liberal Democrats, who usually justify their agenda with the site. This site is basically an attempt to make it look impossible to get Trump re-elected. It also makes polls look biased toward Republicans, which is misleading, as the polls favor Democrats by six points.<ref>https://www.newsmax.com/johntantillo/gallup-biases-sampling/2020/01/06/id/948599/</ref> | | In the 2020 presidential election, the site used a very ugly Trump face and a handsome Biden face, and overstated that "Biden is ''clearly'' favored to win this election," by a lopsided margin of 91 to 9. In an attempt to hide its bias, it has a fox "comforting" and "encouraging" the "underdog Trump", which is not that biased as the rest of the side. It is a detailed site, at least for liberal Democrats, who usually justify their agenda with the site. This site is basically an attempt to make it look impossible to get Trump re-elected. It also makes polls look biased toward Republicans, which is misleading, as the polls favor Democrats by six points.<ref>https://www.newsmax.com/johntantillo/gallup-biases-sampling/2020/01/06/id/948599/</ref> |